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vsa with Malcolm

  • #16,801
  • Mar 19, 2011 9:17am Mar 19, 2011 9:17am
Quoting pres78
I've been a die hard bull for some time now (as you can all tell from my posts)... had one afternoon of weakness but found my way even when the leader of the Mallerinas had given up and sided with the bears ...
To be fair, I had forced about 8 pints down him by then...and there was weakness in the background - he was considering stopping drinking after the 9th pint
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #16,802
  • Mar 19, 2011 9:23am Mar 19, 2011 9:23am
Quoting Steve Gill
To be fair, I had forced about 8 pints down him by then...and there was weakness in the background - he was considering stopping drinking after the 9th pint
This was actually a great lesson and example of trading your own plan and set-ups. Follow along with the thread as a learning tool and a way to bounce your trades and ideas off others who are using the same trading method you are... but never enter a trade off anyone else's call unless you agree with what they are seeing. When I first started VSA if Malc or Intel or Dr G for example would make a call I would be like OK let me jump in because you said so but I don't understand why.

If you don't understand why someone is taking a trade... Do NOT enter the trade.

I guess we may have to start our own support group call M.A.D.T (mallerinas against drunk trading)
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,803
  • Mar 19, 2011 9:27am Mar 19, 2011 9:27am
Quoting Steve Gill
To be fair, I had forced about 8 pints down him by then...and there was weakness in the background - he was considering stopping drinking after the 9th pint
Good man.
  • #16,804
  • Mar 19, 2011 9:28am Mar 19, 2011 9:28am
Quoting pres78
This was actually a great lesson and example of trading your own plan and set-ups....
On a serious note - 100% agree. The thread is to help each other learn VSA and improve our trading, not a signal service.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #16,805
  • Mar 19, 2011 9:29am Mar 19, 2011 9:29am
Quoting pres78
.....I guess we may have to start our own support group call M.A.D.T (mallerinas against drunk trading)
I think you mean

M. F. D. T.
  • #16,806
  • Mar 19, 2011 9:30am Mar 19, 2011 9:30am
Quoting Intel
I think you mean

M. F. D. T.
Either one is good
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,807
  • Mar 19, 2011 9:31am Mar 19, 2011 9:31am
Quoting pres78
This was actually a great lesson and example of trading your own plan and set-ups. Follow along with the thread as a learning tool and a way to bounce your trades and ideas off others who are using the same trading method you are... but never enter a trade off anyone else's call unless you agree with what they are seeing. When I first started VSA if Malc or Intel or Dr G for example would make a call I would be like OK let me jump in because you said so but I don't understand why.

If you don't understand why someone is taking a trade... Do NOT...
Well this could be new good name for the thread
  • #16,808
  • Mar 19, 2011 10:03am Mar 19, 2011 10:03am
Quoting ewokuk
I may be missing something but to me that first bar on your chart is weakness not strength, uhigh vol up bar is weak, confirmed when next bar was down and it then dropped 85 pips....
Hello ewokuk & friends: I hope all are well. E you've posted an excellent spot on observation. Thank you and best wishes for big profits.

{

Here's a link to some of Dennis Gartman's general trading rules. This may be helpful.

13 Rules for Making Good Trading Decisions

http://www.moneyshow.com/trading/art...TRADERS&page=1

}
  • #16,809
  • Mar 19, 2011 10:16am Mar 19, 2011 10:16am
Quoting juhanimi
Okey.
Yes, big losses, and all because I had decided what market should do.
I hope this was last time I do this.
Same here on Wednesday I also was trying to go long and got stopped out many times, price going no where until I realized all that effort and cannot go up, it has to be bearish and went short after I saw supply coming on the 5 TF. Wanted to leave the short open but decided to close it before market close since I had recovered my prior losses plus 9 pips more (good thing I did). The fact that I was able to reverse the trade is a first for me so maybe I am improving, lol.
  • #16,810
  • Mar 19, 2011 11:57am Mar 19, 2011 11:57am
i was looking at what happened friday right before ny close. here is the chart. the rally may have just been closed...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: e-u_ny.gif Size: 38 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #16,811
  • Mar 19, 2011 12:01pm Mar 19, 2011 12:01pm
Quoting pres78
There was background strength before the test bar and entry which is what is important for a long... Yes the trigger level was made during a downmove but by the time we came back and tested it we were back in an upmove above the blue hull and PAL... If you disregarded a trigger to go long because it printed during background weakness then you could miss the fact that price will almost always come back to test. For me the trigger bar was one of the highest volume bars of the day and well quite frankly that whole downmove didn't have...
Thanks very much for the explanation!
  • #16,812
  • Mar 19, 2011 1:07pm Mar 19, 2011 1:07pm
Quoting Mtm
Thanks very much for the explanation!
No problem at all... Ewokuk's observation to my trade was a good point when he noted that the trigger level I used for a long trade was in fact an upbar on high volume that ended up being a weak bar since there was obvious selling in it...

This however also gives a great example of what I have been showing and how I use triggers. This trigger ended up being on an upbar during a weak background however SM still ended up testing this level again when they moved back through it with strength in the background. This is why to me the background is of little inportance when a trigger level is created but it is of strict importance when your entry signal is printed.

This trigger remained untested until SM brought price back up so even though it was created during weakness it was tested during strength.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,813
  • Mar 19, 2011 1:11pm Mar 19, 2011 1:11pm
So it began then. NATO made some shots in Libya.
  • #16,814
  • Mar 19, 2011 3:58pm Mar 19, 2011 3:58pm
Can someone please post an H1, H4 and weekly chart of Eu with esignal feed? I really appreciate it.
  • #16,815
  • Mar 19, 2011 5:02pm Mar 19, 2011 5:02pm
Hello friends: I'm looking at JPM action. Observed on the daily is distinct weakness arriving with a high volume up bar closing well off the highs.

daily link> http://tinyurl.com/47xgcu7

On the 5M weakness/diminished buying comes in through the sequence of bars from 11:35 ET to 12:30 ET culminating in a ND bar.

5M link> http://tinyurl.com/4kmssx6

What I found interesting about these charts was the way the April $45 Calls reacted to the weakness/lack of buying pressure that showed up. Since that chart comes from my Optionsexpress demo account, it can't be linked so it is attached as are the other two below. Notice how the calls sold down on only a few relatively large volume spikes. Either the MMs saw the weakness lack of buying pressure during eastern time lunch hour and walked the calls down or smart speculators shorted those calls for some easy profits. The $45 Puts did not exhibit similar sort of action probably because it is unwise to be long puts in a bullish trending market. However, fearless speculators will do counter trend leveraged trades for a quick pop when its slam dunk easy.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPM daily.png Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: JPM_5M.png Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: JPM_45Calls.png Size: 10 KB
  • #16,816
  • Mar 19, 2011 9:51pm Mar 19, 2011 9:51pm
Quoting juhanimi
Okey.
When I woke up, I had a clear in my mind that EU and GU are bearish, I really do not remember from where I got that. All my problems came from there.
This happens sometimes, but not so often anymore.

1. Took short after that 1, but did not like PriceAction and closed after few +pips.

2. Clear trade, but in downtrend, and I had decised that GU is bearish today.

3. Same as 2.

4. NS again, no action taken.

5. HV UpBar and did not brake old level,

6. HV DownBar confirms that level wont brake.

7. NoDemand, sellstop few pips under...
Juhanimi reply:

Okey.
When I woke up, I had a clear in my mind that EU and GU are bearish, I really do not remember from where I got that. All my problems came from there.
This happens sometimes, but not so often anymore.
1. Took short after that 1, but did not like PriceAction and closed after few +pips.
2. Clear trade, but in downtrend, and I had decised that GU is bearish today.
3. Same as 2.
4. NS again, no action taken.
5. HV UpBar and did not brake old level,
6. HV DownBar confirms that level wont brake.
7. NoDemand, sellstop few pips under that.
8. That opened sellstop.
9. What? UpBar, okey ND, no worries.
10. ND again, now I am sure this is going down, I put under both ND`s sellstop.
11. That took one of sellstops, so now I have 2 trades open.
I have been litlle worried before, because price goes sideways, and EU does the same. And these both bars are NS`s, but often they are anyway, and I realise that this bar is actually my signalbar to go long, but somehow I did not closed trades.
12. Okey, this closed as confirmation to my long signal, WTF, I should close trades and open long, but I did not and start to think that maybe UT is coming, I have to see that. LOL
Yes, big losses, and all because I had decided what market should do.
I hope this was last time I do this.

=====

FB reply:


Do you still have your GU-Short over the weekend?

As last M5 bar on Fri show a quick drop, possibly back to your BE or even profit by Mon.

" I had decided what market should do.
I hope this was last time I do this."
I can GUARANTEE you that it will NOT be the last time you do this, and that is OK. It is how to handle after that decision is proven wrong, that matters.


What you did not show in the Chart is why "I had a clear in my mind that EU and GU are bearish" ?
This is important to show as you said the problem came from here.


For GU, if you re-analyse that it was Strength rather than Weakness, I am sure you know how to read the chart according to VSA.

Instead of just VSA, I give you some other ideas to think about to avoid based on your chart.


Bar-4:
When you see a Doji-like bar that looks like a DownBar on your chart, don't just assume automatically it is "NS".
Just be careful as it may be a UpBar or DownBar especially for Doji-like bars due to different providers.
I find this observation when looking at charts from different providers.
So a small Doji-like bar on M5 or M15, with low vol, might be either a NS or ND.
For my chart, it was a UpBar, not a DownBar like your chart.
More important to look at next few bars AFTER First Doji.
If Bar-4 is "NS" like you said, the next bar is Up, this means more Strength than Weakness.
Bar-4 becomes a Key bar as it is a first Doji-like bar there. When it is Doji-like, more important to look at how the High and Low is respected.
The Low of this Doji-like bar was not broken down by the next 15 bars at least. This show the Low Doji is like a Minor Support here.
Look at the left compare Bar-4 to Bar-1, this is also mentioned in Pres78 post. Good to refer http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=16783


Bar-7:
You saw "ND", here you set a Sell Entry due to your trading plan where you believing there is Weakness.
That is OK as is according to your plan.


Bar-10:
You saw "ND" again, and put a Second Sell Entry.
This bar is NOT that good for entry of either Short or Long.
Because Bar-10 is in Sideway Range from Bar-5 to Bar-10, that is inside the range of 10 bars already quite long wait.
Also look at bigger Bar-5's Low and High, it was not broken during this sideway range. Bar-5 also became a Key bar here during sideway.
Any Subsequent "ND" or "NS" from such Tight Sideway Range usually is NOT as effective as the First "ND" or "NS" at the start.
This Bar-10 should have been avoided with No entry.


Bar-12:
This Bar-12 and next bar have cleared the High of Bar-5, the Key bar during Sideway Range.
Better to wait after a Break of Sideway Range, and then a future Test/ND/NS for entry.




Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU-M15.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #16,817
  • Mar 20, 2011 6:20am Mar 20, 2011 6:20am
On Weekly I can't show the volume, but here you have H1 and H4.

Best,
Ox
Quoting Fusion
Can someone please post an H1, H4 and weekly chart of Eu with esignal feed? I really appreciate it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euh1.png Size: 88 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euh4.png Size: 87 KB
  • #16,818
  • Mar 20, 2011 7:07am Mar 20, 2011 7:07am
Thanks foxybunny.
I closed both after a while, when I saw that I was totally wrong here, no UT or top reversal and big losses.
Bar 4 is not so important,
Bar 9 and 10 gave more confident that this is going down because both with low volume and did not brake that red bars top.
This is how I should trade, only one trade for GU-M15 in hole day, but 50-80 pips, and I dont have to think or predict, just act when near 20 SMA I see signals and confirmation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU-M15.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #16,819
  • Mar 20, 2011 7:50am Mar 20, 2011 7:50am
Quoting juhanimi
Thanks foxybunny.
I closed both after a while, when I saw that I was totally wrong here, no UT or top reversal and big losses.
Bar 4 is not so important,
Bar 9 and 10 gave more confident that this is going down because both with low volume and did not brake that red bars top.
This is how I should trade, only one trade for GU-M15 in hole day, but 50-80 pips, and I dont have to think or predict, just act when near 20 SMA I see signals and confirmation.
That is the NS entry I took in my GU long trade Friday afternoon... That NS which came in at your 20 SMA also was at the trigger level I was watching (based on your volume it was not a trigger)... neat how it all comes together like that. Two different traders with two different volume feeds but yet I got in because of the NS at a trigger level and you would have gotten in because of the NS at the 20 SMA.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,820
  • Mar 20, 2011 8:07am Mar 20, 2011 8:07am
Quoting juhanimi
Thanks foxybunny.
This is how I should trade, only one trade for GU-M15 in hole day, but 50-80 pips, and I dont have to think or predict, just act when near 20 SMA I see signals and confirmation.
How long have you traded with MA-s like that? Any good results? I'm a little bit sceptical because as far as I know MA-s don't act like support or resistance.
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