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vsa with Malcolm

  • #16,781
  • Mar 18, 2011 1:16pm Mar 18, 2011 1:16pm
Quoting pres78
Ok now a few charts as a follow up to my previous post with respect to non close of bar related triggers and also not specifically looking at the highest volume bar seen on the left side of the chart... I am looking at higher than normal volume in the area of current PA, using swings.

Chart 1...

OK now the trigger I have marked is at the most recent swing high and coincidentally enough it is also the high of the highest volume bar in that area... not on the chart but in that area. Was there an entry off another higher volume trigger to the...
Great post. Thank you. Seems like just a few weeks ago you were asking, "what is that histogram at the bottom of your charts?" .
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #16,782
  • Mar 18, 2011 1:19pm Mar 18, 2011 1:19pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Great post. Thank you. Seems like just a few weeks ago you were asking, "what is that histogram at the bottom of your charts?" .
Does feel like only yesterday but things have come so far with VSA and a few little hints of AMT... Been a great year thus far and I have been able to really tweak what I have leanred into a solid method of following SM around the charts ... Couldn't have done it without all the help from great posters such as yourself.

Still so very much to learn though.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,783
  • Mar 18, 2011 1:32pm Mar 18, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
To hell with VSA guys, i've seen the light;

http://www.forextrigger.com/
Shoot me now!

Well we had an interesting week! I'm like 90% bullish EU now with 10% of me saying "damn that up move could've been on higher volume." Last time I saw such low volume was at the end of a down move. Next week should be interesting.

Have a great weekend guys!
  • #16,784
  • Mar 18, 2011 2:32pm Mar 18, 2011 2:32pm
Quoting comapip
Shoot me now!

Well we had an interesting week! I'm like 90% bullish EU now with 10% of me saying "damn that up move could've been on higher volume." Last time I saw such low volume was at the end of a down move. Next week should be interesting.

Have a great weekend guys!
I've been a die hard bull for some time now (as you can all tell from my posts)... had one afternoon of weakness but found my way even when the leader of the Mallerinas had given up and sided with the bears ...

The next while should be very interesting... today was a big victory for the bulls though. Next week for sure that old top at 4279 will get tested and from there we will see... last time it didn't work out good for the bulls.

I would like everyone to keep in mind though that if one pulls a fib from the low back in October 2000 to the high in July 2008 we are still in an overall uptrend on the Monthly chart... The 2010 lowest low was created in June from where price closed above the very important 50% fib level and reversed before making the 2010 high at 4279...

So thus far we are simply seeing big picture retraces in an uptrend...

The one thing we see on thing we see though that is possibly good news for bears is that we have been making LH and LL... but it could also be a big time bull flag getting ready to blow to the topside.

Anyway that's my crazy end of week ramblings... have a great weekend everyone.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,785
  • Mar 18, 2011 2:37pm Mar 18, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
To hell with VSA guys, i've seen the light;

http://www.forextrigger.com/
I already use it. It's a good system.
  • #16,786
  • Mar 18, 2011 2:51pm Mar 18, 2011 2:51pm
Well I am done for the week and what a week it was. Great posts on the thread everyone, have a great weekend and get rested. I expect no-less volatility next week.
  • #16,787
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:18pm Mar 18, 2011 3:18pm
Quoting Intel
I already use it. It's a good system.
I'd say you use it about as much as Wales win a game of footy!
  • #16,788
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:24pm Mar 18, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
To hell with VSA guys, i've seen the light;

http://www.forextrigger.com/
Accurate signals my ass . Almost half of them are losers . I have these systems about a dzilion in my inbox.
  • #16,789
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:24pm Mar 18, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
I'd say you use it about as much as Wales win a game of footy!
LOL I thought I'd got away with it

I notice you didn't mention the rugby Liam
  • #16,790
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:18pm Mar 18, 2011 4:18pm
Quoting Intel
LOL I thought I'd got away with it

I notice you didn't mention the rugby Liam
Ha, i forgot about that, i'm not an egg chaser which is why I mentioned the footy!
  • #16,791
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:53pm Mar 18, 2011 7:53pm
Hi Malcomb,
what do you think of USDCHF? How low can it go? What would be a good level to buy and a good take profit?

How about ES?

Thanks
Marc
  • #16,792
  • Mar 18, 2011 10:04pm Mar 18, 2011 10:04pm
Quoting pres78
I've been a die hard bull for some time now (as you can all tell from my posts)... had one afternoon of weakness but found my way even when the leader of the Mallerinas had given up and sided with the bears ......

1.4259 will be tested in the coming. I am going all in once we go for a retracement for this final trim of the trend

Quoting PipPipPip
There is too much at state. I relooked at the weekly. back in October 24 -31 1.3942 open 1.4030 close. With the week to close under its opening, 4030 can be closed end of next week with very LOTS of resistance. Or it can shoot straight up to 1.4259 end of next week. Either way, I see at least 1.4030 being tested. 1.4259 will be next once 1.4030 is closed.

EDIT: Oh, and Feb 27th week has already closed above 1.3942 of October 24-31. I don't what that means with this ending week's down bar.....
  • #16,793
  • Mar 19, 2011 2:57am Mar 19, 2011 2:57am
Quoting pres78
Entered this a few hours ago while in a meeting from my phone (the picture was pulled earlier but I got called back in and I am to lazy to make another one )... trying out the old MT4 on my smartphone. Back to my desk so here is why I entered. Will close this trade by end of day if not sooner.

Entry was at yesterday's high 6166, SL was at swing low / trigger 6150. TP 1 was 6182, TP 2 is being monitored and has been moved to BE+1....
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1300472114
Hi pres,
for your triggerbar-setup, is there no need to look at background strength BEFORE your trigger bar?

that means, you only consider background strength before the test bar which you are about to take?

pls advise, thanks!
  • #16,794
  • Mar 19, 2011 5:26am Mar 19, 2011 5:26am
Quoting foxybunny
Post some chart of your real trades. That would help.
Enjoy your weekend.
Okey.
When I woke up, I had a clear in my mind that EU and GU are bearish, I really do not remember from where I got that. All my problems came from there.
This happens sometimes, but not so often anymore.

1. Took short after that 1, but did not like PriceAction and closed after few +pips.

2. Clear trade, but in downtrend, and I had decised that GU is bearish today.

3. Same as 2.

4. NS again, no action taken.

5. HV UpBar and did not brake old level,

6. HV DownBar confirms that level wont brake.

7. NoDemand, sellstop few pips under that.

8. That opened sellstop.

9. What? UpBar, okey ND, no worries.

10. ND again, now I am sure this is going down, I put under both ND`s sellstop.

11. That took one of sellstops, so now I have 2 trades open.
I have been litlle worried before, because price goes sideways, and EU does the same. And these both bars are NS`s, but often they are anyway, and I realise that this bar is actually my signalbar to go long, but somehow I did not closed trades.

12. Okey, this closed as confirmation to my long signal, WTF, I should close trades and open long, but I did not and start to think that maybe UT is coming, I have to see that. LOL

Yes, big losses, and all because I had decided what market should do.
I hope this was last time I do this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,795
  • Mar 19, 2011 5:51am Mar 19, 2011 5:51am
Quoting juhanimi
Okey.
When I woke up, I had a clear in my mind that EU and GU are bearish, I really do not remember from where I got that. All my problems came from there.
This happens sometimes, but not so often anymore.

1. Took short after that 1, but did not like PriceAction and closed after few +pips.

2. Clear trade, but in downtrend, and I had decised that GU is bearish today.

3. Same as 2.

4. NS again, no action taken.

5. HV UpBar and did not brake old level,

6. HV DownBar confirms that level wont brake.

7. NoDemand, sellstop few pips under...
This high volume down candle after 1 should have made you thinking that this could actually be shakeout (strength). 2 is ns - mhmm, this had to be shakeout. 3 is ns also - fcuk it really was a shakeout, nope I'm sure that strength is in the back and it goes up now.

Actually I was in the same situation on Wednesday when I thought that EU is bullish. To hell it was. Took 3 trades. 2 of them be +1 and one be +5. Thankfully didn't lose any money. Was really happy. But I hope it all comes with experience like Mal and Dr say.
  • #16,796
  • Mar 19, 2011 6:03am Mar 19, 2011 6:03am
Quoting 1pipperhour
This high volume down candle after 1 should have made you thinking that this could actually be shakeout (strength).
Polomine and was speaking about that few days ago, about that correlation with EU n GU and how to do when they go out of balance.
But this nothing new to me, brain can do these kind of tricks, like earlier with that H1 UT EU and you took that test from M15. Somehow you get blinded and don`t see what is really happening because you have picture in your mind what market is going to do. I almost sure that this was last time.
  • #16,797
  • Mar 19, 2011 6:25am Mar 19, 2011 6:25am
I shorted gbp/usd yesterday either, I just followed the vsa set-up. That is no problem. The hinder sight tell me the only thing I should have noticed is that the supply is not so high volume. In another word, the weakness is not so strong.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=16771



Quoting juhanimi
Okey.
When I woke up, I had a clear in my mind that EU and GU are bearish, I really do not remember from where I got that. All my problems came from there.
This happens sometimes, but not so often anymore.

1. Took short after that 1, but did not like PriceAction and closed after few +pips.

2. Clear trade, but in downtrend, and I had decised that GU is bearish today.

3. Same as 2.

4. NS again, no action taken.

5. HV UpBar and did not brake old level,

6. HV DownBar confirms that level wont brake.

7. NoDemand, sellstop few pips under...
  • #16,798
  • Edited 8:02am Mar 19, 2011 7:23am | Edited 8:02am
Quoting Mtm
Hi pres,
for your triggerbar-setup, is there no need to look at background strength BEFORE your trigger bar?

that means, you only consider background strength before the test bar which you are about to take?

pls advise, thanks!
There was background strength before the test bar and entry which is what is important for a long... Yes the trigger level was made during a downmove but by the time we came back and tested it we were back in an upmove above the blue hull and PAL... If you disregarded a trigger to go long because it printed during background weakness then you could miss the fact that price will almost always come back to test. For me the trigger bar was one of the highest volume bars of the day and well quite frankly that whole downmove didn't have much power behind it.

I mean this trade is a great example of how a trigger level was created and placed on my chart but then was not tested... Upbar triggers as HG says normally you would first expect it to become a trigger to go long but in this case price did not get above it, nor did it test from below to get in hsort either... So thus far I have a possible trigger but no entry signal off it. (let's call it a Virgin Trigger)

We proceed to have the weak looking move down, followed by a reversal and price starts to move back up from the daily low. On the way up the 15min even printed two agreesive entry NS's even before the enrty I marked.

Back to the trade I took...

Price moved up, the hull turned blue and we are now above the PAL... intraday uptrend. Price approaches the trigger from below so we wait to see if it will be rejected... look on the 15min what prices does as it approaches the trigger... we have an incraese in volume on three straight upbars with one even making a high right on the trigger... the next bar prints as a ND with a higher high but it closed right on the trigger... so now we have a 15min ND right at the trigger... now we need to see if it is rejected. However I would never trade a ND at this point on a chart as we have strength and not weakness so I simply take note of it. On the next bars we break the trigger to the topside on increased volume so this to me says SM wants to go up...

Now this is where I begin to watch for a test or NS into the trigger level which is where my original trade description begins...

Personally the background when a trigger level is printed is of relative unimportance... the imporatance lies in the background when the test / ND / NS is printed into the trigger.

Sorry for being so long winded... Also remember that this is the way I use triggers and may or may not be right.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,799
  • Mar 19, 2011 8:49am Mar 19, 2011 8:49am
I may be missing something but to me that first bar on your chart is weakness not strength, uhigh vol up bar is weak, confirmed when next bar was down and it then dropped 85 pips. my vol is slightly different as well in that the second high vol bar on the big down bar was a lot higher than your first high vol bar.

 

  1. on my chart, first bar weak, confirmed with next bar down
  2. very large spread uhigh vol down bar on vol higher than previous uhigh bar. shakeout below previous ny session and asia lows, sign of strength. next bar closes up confirming buying
  3. low vol test, go long above open of this bar
  4. very low vol test of previous support, if not long already, go long now!

didnt trade this and may not have spotted it at the time but thats what it looks like to me now

Quoting pres78
1....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #16,800
  • Mar 19, 2011 8:59am Mar 19, 2011 8:59am
Quoting ewokuk
I may be missing something but to me that first bar on your chart is weakness not strength, uhigh vol up bar is weak, confirmed when next bar was down and it then dropped 85 pips. my vol is slightly different as well in that the second high vol bar on the big down bar was a lot higher than your first high vol bar.[list=1][*]on my chart, first bar weak, confirmed with next bar down[*]very large spread uhigh vol down bar on vol higher than previous uhigh bar. shakeout below previous ny session and asia lows, sign of strength. next bar closes...
I didn't say it was strength... I said it created a possible trigger. When I entered the trade off the test of this trigger level there was strength in the background.

Both entries you mentioned are good as well but I missed both and was able to get in higher off the trigger I showed. This goes back to my other post showing that even if the first entries are missed you may still get a way in.

As for variences in volume we can each only trade what we see on our own charts... sometimes they agree and sometimes they don't as we all are seeing the spikes in orders based on our own brokers unless we are using Esignal or other more market wide feed.

Look at my reply to MTM where I went more in depth (I also mention your two entry bars in this reply)...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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