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  • #101
  • Mar 18, 2011 1:44pm Mar 18, 2011 1:44pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I lost some $$$ on the way down. I'm making more on the way up. When Gordon Gekko said ,"The key to this game is your capital reserve. If you don't have it you can't piss in the tall wheat with the big dogs." , I didn't realize at the time just how true that was. When you take a beating, it's ok, a long as you have the reserves to capitalize when things swing back your way.

Regards,
So true Fx Petra,do you mind me asking,
when the Aussie dropped down to 9780 last night
did you think oh no not again or were you comfortable
with the PA,i just thought for a while it looked very weak again.
Cheers.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #102
  • Mar 18, 2011 2:19pm Mar 18, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting jezek5
So true Fx Petra,do you mind me asking,
when the Aussie dropped down to 9780 last night
did you think oh no not again or were you comfortable
with the PA,i just thought for a while it looked very weak again.
Cheers.
Stops were in place @ 9680. Is it possible that my stops would be taken? Yes. But to get to 9710 it took an earthquake, tsunami, and the brink of nuclear disaster. The sun has to come out sometime! We were due for some upside. Is it just a bounce or trend resumption? No way to know. However, with the G7 countries openly intervening to weaken the yen, it is damn hard to see a lot of downside anytime soon. We shall see!!

Regards,
  • #103
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:09pm Mar 18, 2011 3:09pm
It is still holding above current support 9950, though it didn't make the moves Euro made (understandable), this crisis affects us more than a European economy.
I did have a target of 1.050ish where i would exit longs and start fresh, hopefully with a good retracement.
Biggest joker
  • #104
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:24pm Mar 18, 2011 4:24pm
With all due respect, Petra, it also took a massive coordinated campaign to return a semblance of risk appetite to the market.
  • #105
  • Mar 18, 2011 10:00pm Mar 18, 2011 10:00pm
How did you go fx petra, you managed to turn it all in a good profit i imagine, i learned long ago to do things my way and not listen to classic cliché advice of certain things that can not be done in trading...
Biggest joker
  • #106
  • Edited 1:33am Mar 20, 2011 12:57am | Edited 1:33am
Quoting 45teeth
With all due respect, Petra, it also took a massive coordinated campaign to return a semblance of risk appetite to the market.
Forex live has an interesting article about the expected battle next week.

http://www.forexlive.com/174470/all/...e-months-ahead

"Right now, the market is willing to pick a fight with the BOJ and the rest of the G7 to see if intervention is still a viable contingency in this massive market, one that has trebled in size in the last decade. Central banks have been reluctant to find out if their old tricks still work for fear of finding that they don’t. Once the perception of central bank invincibility is shattered, it won’t be easily won back.

I slightly favor the market winning out over the authorities in the near-term. But there is a lot riding on the authorities early next week: Their ability to influence global exchange rates directly will forever be questioned if they fail. They have their work cut out for them.

It will be no holiday for the BOJ on Monday, that much is for sure."


It's going to be very exciting regardless of who wins! Battle is joined! I suspect that this time around, the central banks will end up winning. Still exciting fireworks!

I do wonder though how much of a fight the Aussie could put up if the speculators ever decide to try to bring it down. The RBA's resources I suspect wouldn't be up to the task and I doubt the G7 would come to the RBA's aid.
  • #107
  • Mar 20, 2011 1:50am Mar 20, 2011 1:50am
Quoting Anne Clare
Forex live has an interesting article about the expected battle next week.
I do wonder though how much of a fight the Aussie could put up if the speculators ever decide to try to bring it down. The RBA's resources I suspect wouldn't be up to the task and I doubt the G7 would come to the RBA's aid.
I'm confused, maybe i'm ignorant, but wouldn't australia relish a lower exchange rate to a degree? say USD at .8? versus the 1:1 right now?

I mean yeah, maybe if it's driven down into the .70's then it's an issue, but right now I can't imagine them defending a 1:1 ratio if that's what you are suggesting?
  • #108
  • Mar 20, 2011 2:14am Mar 20, 2011 2:14am
Quoting lolygagv2
I'm confused, maybe i'm ignorant, but wouldn't australia relish a lower exchange rate to a degree? say USD at .8? versus the 1:1 right now?

I mean yeah, maybe if it's driven down into the .70's then it's an issue, but right now I can't imagine them defending a 1:1 ratio if that's what you are suggesting?
The problem is that as Japan rebuilds, repatriation of the Yen and the demand for raw materials will be high. (Aussie = raw materials heaven). What the RBA may want (or indeed the G7 rhetoric) is moot (imo). The SNB have learned the intervention lesson the hard way over the last 2 years.

AU's GDP would certainly benefit from a lower Aussie dollar but the yield differential is still very attractive to market as a whole. Put together with the relatively stable geo-political climate, consistently high demand/growth expectations and US equities still tracking north, the potential for AU to hold and move above present levels is significant.

The wild card is the game of relativities.... if the Euro continues to gain strength, this will make it difficult for AU to keep up the north romp at the same pace.

AU has been very attractive and well supported because in part, both the Euro and USD have been (and possibly still are) somewhat precarious.
  • #109
  • Mar 20, 2011 2:36am Mar 20, 2011 2:36am
Quoting lolygagv2
I'm confused, maybe i'm ignorant, but wouldn't australia relish a lower exchange rate to a degree? say USD at .8? versus the 1:1 right now?

I mean yeah, maybe if it's driven down into the .70's then it's an issue, but right now I can't imagine them defending a 1:1 ratio if that's what you are suggesting?
It depends on how low it goes. You're right that they won't defend parity. However what makes you think that it can't go get down to the 70s during a concerted attack or other financial crisis? During the global credit crunch the Australian dollar went down lower than that in a very short period of time.

The Australian dollar is highly volatile. In the right (or wrong) circumstances it has shown it can move large amounts very quickly.

And don't worry about being ignorant. I'm probably worse than you ^_^

Of course this is just speculation. There is no talk of any sort of speculative attack against the Aussie that I've heard of.
  • #110
  • Mar 20, 2011 3:00am Mar 20, 2011 3:00am
Global debt clock, comparatives are interesting. Europe looks worse than the US, but the US has a huge unfunded liabilities component.

AU doesn't look too bad at all when you line them all up this way. (Can't vouch for the source btw, but still interesting).

http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
  • #111
  • Mar 20, 2011 6:39am Mar 20, 2011 6:39am
Some charts, AU daily, weekly and 30M.

On the daily, it was very interesting to see price respond so strongly on the 88.2 fib @ .96894

88.2, like 76.4, is an inverse mirror of the 11.8 and 23.6 fibs

AU now has some support with the 200 ema having come into play just above 88.2

On the weekly, we can see the extensive consolidation pattern that has been building between the 88.2 and 100 fibs since Oct '10. This type of consolidation is generally considered a continuation pattern, i.e. price will eventually push through with force. There are however, also times when continuation patterns fail, with the opposite effect.

On the 30M, it will be worth watching for a retracement to the 200 and 55 ema crossover point around .99195. AU bulls may want to wait for a test here and see some evidence of buying support out-numbering sellers (engulfing candles, or outside bars). If price doesn't hold there, another test of the 88.2 @ .96894 could be the second wick formation in a bull tweezer pair on the weekly.

Good trading.
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  • #112
  • Mar 20, 2011 7:01am Mar 20, 2011 7:01am
Testing times,clearly 1.000 is the pivot that needs
to be watched,a push up though this level and
its back up to good old 1.0150.
If we stall out here i'm not sure,would need to see
what kind of PA we are getting.
Just playing a large inside bar at present.
Attached Image
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #113
  • Mar 20, 2011 2:20pm Mar 20, 2011 2:20pm
Quoting Jade Gate
Global debt clock, comparatives are interesting. Europe looks worse than the US, but the US has a huge unfunded liabilities component.

AU doesn't look too bad at all when you line them all up this way. (Can't vouch for the source btw, but still interesting).

http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
It doesn't take into account the huge amount of aircraft carriers, planes and bombs the US has.....
Biggest joker
  • #114
  • Mar 20, 2011 3:58pm Mar 20, 2011 3:58pm
Quoting baron193
It doesn't take into account the huge amount of aircraft carriers, planes and bombs the US has.....
Have thought at times that deployment of those toys is the last stand position for anything resembling up traffic on the US Dollar (in response to asking yourself the question, what could possibly cause the dollar to find some serious legs and hold, other than an interest rate hike)
  • #115
  • Mar 20, 2011 5:35pm Mar 20, 2011 5:35pm
AUDUSD broke the third and the second uptrend phase, correction to the first is inevitable. We could see it @ 0,9550 before continuation of the trend.
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Enter Signature
  • #116
  • Mar 20, 2011 9:26pm Mar 20, 2011 9:26pm
just breaking 1.0000
I am looking to 1.01 soon..

Kudos to the G7 intervention succeed! ^^
  • #117
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:22pm Mar 20, 2011 10:22pm
Just popping in to subscribe to this thread. Hope everyone got some pips on that up move. I left wayyy to much on the table on that one. It completely wiped out a few supply levels along the way.

Good times
  • #118
  • Mar 20, 2011 11:18pm Mar 20, 2011 11:18pm
Strong PA.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #119
  • Edited 12:24am Mar 21, 2011 12:09am | Edited 12:24am
Quoting Jade Gate
Have thought at times that deployment of those toys is the last stand position for anything resembling up traffic on the US Dollar (in response to asking yourself the question, what could possibly cause the dollar to find some serious legs and hold, other than an interest rate hike)
It will have an effect, eventualy, do you really think what's going on now is about "freedom" for the people, or is it about getting rid of a dictator?
It will destroy most infrastucture, which means the nation will have to start from scratch, and borrow to rebuild.
"democracy" will replace the dictatorship which another more subtle type to allow the people to be controled in a different way.
Result: western corporations and the elite get control of the last pieces of the pie left in this world.
They might give it a name, something like: new world order
Do you think that is a US$ positive?
Ohh forgot to mention, i don't like Gadafi.

Oil still get traded in US$.....
Biggest joker
  • #120
  • Edited 1:00am Mar 21, 2011 12:18am | Edited 1:00am
there should be good resistance about now, if not around 50

it's on the backside of a minor TL, and fibs agree, actualy the place is 25

The above post does not mean i'm looking for long term shorts yet.
Biggest joker
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