The most interesting chart after all of this nonsense:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
- #12,062
- Mar 18, 2011 7:49am Mar 18, 2011 7:49am
Don't worry about it mate. Markets going bidless are never relaxing environment however the point at which you have your holy 5h1t moment as a retail trader is normally about the same point everyone else does and only with time do you realize that the feeling of fear that you get is actually your subconscious pointing out where you need to get in.
One way to mitigate some of the fear though in those situations is to know what your maximum hourly trading range is in a pair and for the JPY the largest in the past 6 months or so have only been around 200pips besides the flash crash. So there you have your scale: over 200 and it's an anomaly event so worth a nibble for a reversal but be prepared to spread your entry over the range down to the extremes of what the flashcrash range would have been. Below the flash crash range and it's the kind of event that you simply cannot foresee.
That's how I handled it, got an average fill of 78.80 and bailed on the 81.50 hit today to be out before the weekend. Won't make out I'm a hero and made a fortune from it because I'd be bulls%&$ing you. However I had a plan, I scaled in 1/3 of my normal position size out across the spike to cut my risk both in SL size and position size, was all in by the time 77 went so was no superstar. Ended up making a few k but glad I tested myself and had a plan.
Been watching Crude for a reversal off the 1.03-1.0350 level and just realised I missed my short due to typing this. So I guess banging on about the $JPY trade has just cost me the same amount with this 300 pip fall in crude.
Nett even going into the weekend.
Enjoy it everyone.
One way to mitigate some of the fear though in those situations is to know what your maximum hourly trading range is in a pair and for the JPY the largest in the past 6 months or so have only been around 200pips besides the flash crash. So there you have your scale: over 200 and it's an anomaly event so worth a nibble for a reversal but be prepared to spread your entry over the range down to the extremes of what the flashcrash range would have been. Below the flash crash range and it's the kind of event that you simply cannot foresee.
That's how I handled it, got an average fill of 78.80 and bailed on the 81.50 hit today to be out before the weekend. Won't make out I'm a hero and made a fortune from it because I'd be bulls%&$ing you. However I had a plan, I scaled in 1/3 of my normal position size out across the spike to cut my risk both in SL size and position size, was all in by the time 77 went so was no superstar. Ended up making a few k but glad I tested myself and had a plan.
Been watching Crude for a reversal off the 1.03-1.0350 level and just realised I missed my short due to typing this. So I guess banging on about the $JPY trade has just cost me the same amount with this 300 pip fall in crude.
Nett even going into the weekend.
Enjoy it everyone.
I gotta say, I'm a little ashamed of it all. I didn't have the balls to buy any yen related products, but had a few reasons to buy the euro, so I did.
Problem was, I was looking at day/session trade criteria, and once I was in the trade, I realized I hadn't been planning on babysitting the trade for the next few hours like I would during NY. As usual, I was early and my position got tested a few times, and on the third test in 1.5 hours (everything's moving well except the euro), I bailed for a loss.
Would've been a great trade to hold onto,...
- #12,064
- Mar 18, 2011 1:28pm Mar 18, 2011 1:28pm
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2007 | 7,685 Posts
- #12,065
- Mar 18, 2011 1:51pm Mar 18, 2011 1:51pm
- | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: temporarily correct | 1,757 Posts
- #12,068
- Mar 19, 2011 3:01am Mar 19, 2011 3:01am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2008 | 9,794 Posts
- #12,069
- Mar 19, 2011 7:31am Mar 19, 2011 7:31am
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2007 | 7,685 Posts
This goes back to last weeks debate about fiat money.
The answer IMO is close the Fed and let the Govt print dollars = no debt just free cash.
Only problem with that is the Dollar will very quicklybecome worthless, whereas ATM it's only slowly becoming worthless.
- #12,070
- Edited 12:49pm Mar 19, 2011 9:21am | Edited 12:49pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2008 | 9,794 Posts
You sound like you have no faith in our politicians and there ability to not spend money (or in this case print it) endlessly?
The problem is that politicians are dependant on voters and voters don't like austerity or gov'ts who cut benefits aka spending. The only thing politicians can do is spend money and it's easy to do that when it's someone elses.
Maggie once said ''The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money [to spend]."Problem with that is that all gov'ts spend other peoples money, not just socialist ones.
Rather than have an independent bank I think what we need is an independent Gov't procurement department whose remit should be custodian of the books with a clear mandate to balance the 'books'. If this dept was independent from Govt they could allocate funds based on Govt priorities but only if the money was there. The Govt would print the money but on the instructions of the, lets call him the Procurator General lol. Not sure how or if it would work but it must be better than the current shambles. Just imagine.... If Bush wanted to go to war....he'd have to ask the PG for the money - that would stop a few pointless and illegal wars for a start.
Now wouldn't that be revolutionary.
Hello, Chris!
My name is Max. I’m from Russia (Siberia).
Not a long time ago I read the translation of your online thread in Russian forum.
I want to thank you! I enjoy your understanding of the market and your thoughts about psychology of trading. After 1,5 years of my active trading you have opened my eyes and have destroyed my illusion about fast enrichment for trading in the market. I’m very glad that I have a chance to thank you. It is the same for me as I would write «hello», for example, to Elliot.
Following your advice I began to mark weekly charts. It was the most interesting that after the marking USDCAD I had found your forum’s post with your marking of USDCAD. And my PPZ was wider than yours. I thought to add that «min» (blue cursor) into PPZ or not. After all I decided to add because of «local min» (red cursor). I thought the minimums were parts of whole (PPZ). At the least I felt so
I have a low level of English. I can understand you because text of forum is translated by automatic translator. If we will communicate in future, my English is bad-understood because I will use automatic translator. This text is written by my girlfriend, but she can’t often do it for me.
My name is Max. I’m from Russia (Siberia).
Not a long time ago I read the translation of your online thread in Russian forum. I want to thank you! I enjoy your understanding of the market and your thoughts about psychology of trading. After 1,5 years of my active trading you have opened my eyes and have destroyed my illusion about fast enrichment for trading in the market. I’m very glad that I have a chance to thank you. It is the same for me as I would write «hello», for example, to Elliot.
Following your advice I began to mark weekly charts. It was the most interesting that after the marking USDCAD I had found your forum’s post with your marking of USDCAD. And my PPZ was wider than yours. I thought to add that «min» (blue cursor) into PPZ or not. After all I decided to add because of «local min» (red cursor). I thought the minimums were parts of whole (PPZ). At the least I felt so
I have a low level of English. I can understand you because text of forum is translated by automatic translator. If we will communicate in future, my English is bad-understood because I will use automatic translator. This text is written by my girlfriend, but she can’t often do it for me.
- #12,073
- Mar 20, 2011 3:30am Mar 20, 2011 3:30am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2008 | 9,794 Posts
- #12,075
- Mar 20, 2011 8:15am Mar 20, 2011 8:15am
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2007 | 7,685 Posts
Hello, Chris!
My name is Max. I’m from Russia (Siberia).
[size=3][font=Times New Roman]I want to thank you! I enjoy your understanding of the market and your thoughts about psychology of trading. After 1,5 years of my active trading you have opened my eyes and have destroyed my illusion about fast enrichment for trading in the market. I’m very...
- #12,077
- Mar 20, 2011 8:28am Mar 20, 2011 8:28am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2008 | 9,794 Posts
The most interesting chart after all of this nonsense:
Also weekly pb and rising wedge.
Price is also retesting the ppz(blue line) previous resistance turned support.
And.....Japan will soon need lots of natural resources from OZ to rebuild.
