GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

Nice charts as always 45C, appreciate the input. For what it's worth, I don't feel the second guessing vibe, the parameters remain nice and clear for now. Patience as always, take the ones where everything lines up and leave the rest to the chop. There is plenty of time to hop on any meaningful moves which might develop from where we are today. TED spread continues to misbehave, keeping the swings nice and volatile.

Just holding some small longs in the Euro 1.383 around todays LO price, most of the lots taken off to derisk the position but if it doesn't stop out (SL at -10) I won't exit it.

Looking at liquidity sentiment, banks are net long with a pretty bullish bias right now. Lots of retail top pickers around to sell to.

Thanks Sinner - what I lack in trading skill I try to compensate for in aesthetic display... heard that from practices other than trading, too.

I'm running two shorts from 1.3890, and based my entry on chart 1 (1hr).

Chart two (4hr) is a slightly longer term fib projection and I am targetting the 61.8 FE in the first instance. A little busy with work at present, which is a good thing as I've been paying attention to the Guppy profiles mostly, and have not had time to allow thoughts on the daily funnies to confuse.

...your comment concerning the net long positions with the banks is a little troubling, but hope they push lower for stops placed on the way up, and to get a better discount. Perhaps.

Gammase1. Thank you for the comment - agree or not on some our considerations, we have at least remained cordial and mature in our exchanges, and I do pay attention to your fundamental knowledge... and it's also nice to know that some people read my diatribe.

Morning.

Woke up to overnight longs mentioned above stopped out, no issues that's why I derisked them before bed.

Worthy chart this morning, last nights action pushed the TED spread above its 200MA for the first time since the flash crash. USD responded accordingly of course. Last time profitable trades could be had in calls on EURGBP and (EDIT, meant to say puts in USDJPY), maybe we can play there again.



Flat for the moment, let's see how the pairs and DX close the week.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained; shorts waned, but stops reigned.

Out for, well, not a lot, but no loss before the rugby this weekend, so it can’t be all that bad.

Hope those that could get to their charts today made some pips.


Thoughts go out to those affected in Japan. For the Japanese within FF, I hope that you are okay.

Hello All,

Hmm, what a week or so of news; meltdown in Tokyo, crushing of rebellion in Libya, German failure to fix their banks, and approaching bailout for Portugal, to name but a few of the fundamentals to consider at present.

Having watched the awful suffering already hitting the Japanese, and, ostensibly, ‘world community’ focus away from North Africa, I don’t feel much like trying to lift my spirits through comedic invective. We all have the charts in front of us, and so will leave you with today’s move in oil. Oh dear…

My recommendation: take a fine Italian coffee, a cigarette if you smoke, and let Diamond Dave place you into pensive mood.



If a little more contemplative, and willing to be placed in mood, try:



or

Do I need to say it?

Here we go...

http://www.forexcrunch.com/un-author...-rises-furthe/

Still watching this from yesterday, and with the malaise to come now that Gaddafi is to be taught his lesson - I wonder if the house of Saud will receive the same for their actions the past few days - I am sitting this out. I expect that wick from yesterday to be met again in the not-too-distant future.

Freaky Friday is almost upon us Gentlemen. And Ladies, should some be present in these parts of FF town.

Yep I've got Google Realtime open with #libya streaming.

Took a short term delta neutral on EURGBP at the Tokyo open, 0.869 entry, money is outside the +/- 0.8736/0.8644 band.

This older trade doesn't look like it's gonna pay off unless the DAX crashes tonight, a real shame as we are only 150 points from my strike. (click the little arrow next to my name in the below quote to be shown the whole posting if you can't remember it):

Taking profit on this here around 0.875, when volatility is high it's easier to just buy volatility and take profits once you're paid! No bother trying to analyse direction or momentum.

For all the talk of CB intervention, USDJPY is back to the same old liquidity sentiment which has been present since 2009, retail heavy net long with the banks selling to them heavy net short!

Is intervention in this case, massive liquidations of the bank books? Look out 'cos they are gonna need retail to sell all those JPY to.

Today as of 10 minutes ago was the Spring Vernal Equinox, known to Iranians like me as Eid.

To all my friends in this thread, Eid'Mobarak!

A Happy Eid to you, too...

Know a great Iranian restaurant in Taipei that does the best Ash-e-jow. Good belly dancers, too.

45C, o noes now you know my one single weakness! Even my mother, she knows the way to get me to come back to Sydney for a visit, is to mention Ash (or Osh I guess phonetically?) just a few times on the phone.

Well...

Last night was a big one for me, I even managed to catch that 40 of that 50 pip fast unexpected drop on the Euro in the early NY session on biiig size. Sometimes those M5 trades, they pay off bigtime. I actually woke a few people up with my crowing.

Last night was a big one for the charts too, seems USDX made a convincing daily break out of the Nov-Dec 2010 range even though I couldn't find any of the component pairs breaking out to new levels overnight.

Short term aggressive looking for targets in the 74.3-74.2 support band by selling intraday breakouts on small size. With the TED spread now breaking out of weekly levels in a very aggressive fashion it's worth keeping in mind that we are not in risk off buy the f***** dip land, this is still very much schizophrenic market land where the bigdogs can close up shop in an instant leaving most markets bidless.

Trade accordingly. Of the majors, it seems like GBPUSD has the most room for upside on longer term breakouts but I feel like EURGBP is a good pair to trade in a bearish USDX/bullish TED spread environment.

I include a weekly DX with broader parameters now that the older short term ones which I've been using have had a breakout. Remember, it's still a range.

Well, with the world falling apart around me, I’ve been in the bunker – accompanied with a nice Rose from Corsica to help welcome in warmer breezes. One hopes that any isotopic contamination is restricted to natural neutron reaction and decay, and not the Eastern-flavoured quarks.

Anyway, today’s media just, well, forced me to stick my head above the parapet, and whilst I was looking forward and sighing at the destruction being wrought to a general global public – be this via natural disaster, political motivation, or big money avarice - my own side shot me in the arse from behind the parados. Bastards.

So, the 4.4 percent inflation came as a shock. Yeah man, sure… I won’t reiterate my many previous posts about true inflation being in double digits, and how there remains many questions concerning the independence of the Bank of England from Number 11 Downing Street. Come on, ain’t no way we gonna dig that show, dog. None of these releases are a shock to you, really, are they? And if they are, you are certainly not in tune with the public, who I proffer are shocked by the low level of the released figure, and are even more shocked by the affectation of emotion displayed in public release of shock. And what is with the ever-changing criteria that central government use to assess national fiscal status?

And so tomorrow Georgy Porgie is going to take more of our pudding and pie. Damn, I may start calling this Ozzie the Prince of Public Penury – that’s a play on Ozzie Osborne, the Prince of Darkness as he was labelled, for the younger readers present.

I guess for us, the question is what will Cable do? Well, not being inclined this evening to start rolling off the figures and connections, I’m of the opinion that big money approves of the ‘policy’ of a rising inflation, austerity measures for the general public, and favourable financial environment within the City. This, I guess, will be seen as a step closer to dragging the government coffer back into the black, and couple this with an ever-present expectation that sooner or later interest rate rises will have to be introduced, I think Cable may begin its ascent to the 1.69 region. Charts show FE levels. I also expect tomorrows budget to announce greater cuts, higher stealth taxes ala ‘Gordon Brown style’, and, well, a little more misery for us all.

Funny how what is transpiring the past year or so, is almost to script what miserable buggers like me have been saying all along.

Yes, watching the USINDX, and oil and gold.

Love it! Great post as usual, I am home sick today, so will try to digest your charts later.

Seems my last comment about upside in GBPUSD was timely but I haven't taken a position yet. Let's see how the week plays out first!

On shock,

Do as I say
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc83d232-0...#axzz1HO0rpzfW

Not as I do
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009...-on-inflation/

Yes, they bought index linked gilts (same as TIPS in the US) right at the 2008 bottom while blathering about deflation all along. The pension managers knew Bean and the rest of the douchebags were gonna print and Bean and the rest of the douchebags didn't?!

Didn't I write a post about TIP vs TLT not long ago?

Just to wish everyone a good weekend. Keep up the high quality posts. Stocky? Where are you?

I would post a chart but I think we all know where it's going from here...

Morning Smikester,

Hope all is well.

Im still here lol... just busy capitilising on volatility in the stock & bond markets aswell as FX meaning its more difficult to post regular charts.

Got a busy weekend ahead so will post some GU charts monday afternoon. At the moment im keeping a close eye on strong daily resistance at 6278/ 6344. This area has rejected price numerous times since feb 17th. I cant see this area holding on its next test providing we get there. Medium term I still see 1.68 as a target but key levels at the moment for me are daily support holding at 5984 and daily res at 6278/6344. Until one of these levels breaks im trading the price swings between the two mentioned areas.

Keep up the good posts everyone!!

Stocky