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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #81
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:35pm Mar 17, 2011 7:35pm
G7 and BOJ have agreed intervention on USDJPY...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #82
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:39pm Mar 17, 2011 7:39pm
Quoting Forexia
Anybody know what's the cause of this spike in AUD/JPY which is really caused by AUD/USD? It spiked up like 100 pips just in the last 20 min.

I didn't see any news nor any Calendar items regarding Australia.
My aussie short was perfoming beatiful till intervention and I still don't get it, if USD is getting stronger against EUD and JPY why the hell does the Aussie do the contrary. Got SLed, reentered my short @0.9900
  • #83
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:56pm Mar 17, 2011 7:56pm
Quoting kandarv
My aussie short was perfoming beatiful till intervention and I still don't get it, if USD is getting stronger against EUD and JPY why the hell does the Aussie do the contrary. Got SLed, reentered my short @0.9900

i know eh, 4hrs is bearish, till that G7 meet up.... BOOM!
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #84
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:28pm Mar 17, 2011 8:28pm
This changes the game plan,
Mrs Wantanbe and her chums
might be coming back to play.
So far just a thought.
Nice call longs.
All short stalking off.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #85
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:37pm Mar 17, 2011 8:37pm
Quoting kandarv
My aussie short was perfoming beatiful till intervention and I still don't get it, if USD is getting stronger against EUD and JPY why the hell does the Aussie do the contrary. Got SLed, reentered my short @0.9900
I don't get it either. It seems like AUD is the ONLY currency that is going up while all the other currencies are either unchanged or actually went down.

I suspect they must have used AUD along with USD to short the YEN in the intervention. EUR/USD and GBP/USD actually went down when all the spikes happened so USD must be going down but AUD actually went up. And since AUD went up, NZD and CAD all went up together with it but not as much so they could not have been the intervention currencies. They chose AUD I guess because Australian economy is one of if not the strongest economy around and they must have the largest dealing with Japan.

Just my speculation.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #86
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:40pm Mar 17, 2011 8:40pm
Quoting Forexia
I don't get it either. It seems like AUD is the ONLY currency that is going up while all the other currencies are either unchanged or actually went down.

I suspect they must have used AUD along with USD to short the YEN in the intervention. EUR/USD and GBP/USD actually went down when all the spikes happened so USD must be going down but AUD actually went up. And since AUD went up, NZD and CAD all went up together with it but not as much so they could not have been the intervention currencies. They chose AUD I guess because Australian economy...
Fiber looks pretty strong to me.
And Kiwi,cable only one lagging.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #87
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:50pm Mar 17, 2011 8:50pm
Quoting jezek5
Fiber looks pretty strong to me.
And Kiwi,cable only one lagging.
Kiwi and cable are not being used. Fiber is only going up starting NOW. It was going down with the earlier intervention spike at 8:00 PM EST.

I guess this must be the 2nd intervention wave, this time using EUR as the intervention currency. I guess EU wants to show that they are pitching in to help too. Just not sure if there is more intervention left to do. JPY is not going down as much.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #88
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:55pm Mar 17, 2011 8:55pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Got long again on the dip @ 9790. Stops below 9700. TP @ 9950. If we clear 9980, I'll look to get long again. Good trades to all.

Regards,
Went ahead and closed 2 lots @ 9925. Moved stop on other 2 lots to BE. Moving TP on those 2 lots up to 1.0050. I didn't think my longs from 9790 would pay off this fast, but I'll take it!!

Regards,
  • #89
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:00pm Mar 17, 2011 9:00pm
(Reuters) - The Group of Seven industrial nations agreed on Friday to jointly intervene in the currency market to stem a sharp yen rise that complicates Japan's battle with the devastation caused by last week's violent earthquake and an unfolding nuclear crisis.
"Given yen moves after the tragic events that hit Japan, the United States, Britain, Canada and the European Central Bank have agreed with Japan to jointly intervene in the currency market," Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda told reporters.
Japanese authorities will buy dollar/yen in the market from 9 a.m. (12:00 a.m. GMT). Other central banks will act when their markets open, Noda said. He declined to comment on the size of Tokyo's intervention.

----------------------------------------

So I guess we will see more intervention moves when the market opens in London (Cable) at around 3:00 am EST and in US (Greenback and Loonie) at 8:00 am EST.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #90
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:41pm Mar 17, 2011 9:41pm
Nothing is happening now for this market. EU just made a feint move to intervene but really didn't do much. They made AUD did all the work.

Let's see if EU will do more when the European market opens in five hours or if they are going to just "monitor the currency market closely".
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #91
  • Mar 17, 2011 10:08pm Mar 17, 2011 10:08pm
Quoting kandarv
My aussie short was perfoming beatiful till intervention and I still don't get it, if USD is getting stronger against EUD and JPY why the hell does the Aussie do the contrary. Got SLed, reentered my short @0.9900
I had to learn this the HARD way years ago. When there is an announced, coordinated intervention underway... don't try to figure it out. It cannot be figured out. Just know that there will be sharp moves, and corresponding pull backs. Don't try to figure out why... that is the domain of Citibank, HSBC, large hedge funds, and the like. The question is, are the big boys going to push back on such a coordinated effort, or will they play nice and let it happen. Fighting central banks is normally suicide... but that is how George Soros made his money when the Pound popped years ago. Of course, he was cheating with some Germans, but that is another story.

Regards,

PS

If this is a sustained (weeks or months) intervention, there is no telling how high the Aussie could go. They have the world's strongest economy right now, so they can most afford a sharp currency rise. Central Banks never say how long or how much.
  • #92
  • Mar 17, 2011 11:18pm Mar 17, 2011 11:18pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I had to learn this the HARD way years ago. When there is an announced, coordinated intervention underway... don't try to figure it out. It cannot be figured out. Just know that there will be sharp moves, and corresponding pull backs. Don't try to figure out why... that is the domain of Citibank, HSBC, large hedge funds, and the like. The question is, are the big boys going to push back on such a coordinated effort, or will they play nice and let it happen. Fighting central banks is normally suicide... but that is how George Soros made his money...
I do remember last year MOF intervention and certainly benefit from it, we all were expecting it. It didn't last for long I don't know if this time it will. Nevertheless, I'm not feeling the strength in Aussie economy as you do, there are rumors of interest reduction next month. Maybe I'm too biased now, not trading cold and chart based as before.

Good luck on your trades.
  • #93
  • Mar 18, 2011 12:48am Mar 18, 2011 12:48am
I guess it is safe to post on the other forum now, with the Aussie moving north toiletguts will disappear...
Biggest joker
  • #94
  • Mar 18, 2011 5:08am Mar 18, 2011 5:08am
Euro data out of the way now, this could be a good moment to long AU, CAD data coming up and expected positive. AU and CAD are sister comm dollar currencies. Can be a positive effect for both when one has good news.

Also with a nice bullish day in equities yesterday, another bull day is likely to follow - should be good for AU, especially with the weekend coming up and favourable response on AU to the JPY news ex G7.

As always, the insurance position to long AU is to wait until you see bearish engulfing activity on the EUR/AUD cross - this frequently occurs in the lead-up to US equities opening.
  • #95
  • Mar 18, 2011 5:34am Mar 18, 2011 5:34am
Just in case this is THE new Aussie thread, I'm reposting this.

The levels are easy to spot so I won't delve into much talk about it.

Attachment

Although both SMAs 200 and 100 have been broken, I would favor at least a retest of the break at 1.0100 if the "potential inverted H&S" pattern doesn't come out and should we really be starting a trend reversal, before going much deeper into the red zone.

Attachment

Till then, I am still bullish on this pair.
  • #96
  • Mar 18, 2011 5:37am Mar 18, 2011 5:37am
Quoting jezek5
I'm guessing a Chinese interest rate raise would
be bearish for the Aussie,I've come across chat
about one twice today.
RTRS - CHINA'S CENTRAL BANK RAISES REQUIRED RESERVE RATIO BY 50 BASIS POINTS

No reaction so far.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #97
  • Mar 18, 2011 5:38am Mar 18, 2011 5:38am
or just wait until around 7am US ET when the US cranks up for the day and fresh money kicks in... the Euro bulls (on the EUR/AUD cross) are prone to ducking for cover around this time of day, because they know that the competition has arrived and is all cashed up with a liking for AU and a dislike of the Euro

there are days when you can literally count down the minutes and watch as London/Europe tries to suck the last north breath out of the cross before it miraculously collapses immediately after 7am... it's a bit like the game of bluff the school yard boys play every single day with religious devotion

but there are of course, days when the game is off, for whatever reason
  • #98
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:50am Mar 18, 2011 7:50am
the benefit and importance of waiting until you see bearish engulfing activity on the EUR/AUD cross before going long AU
  • #99
  • Mar 18, 2011 12:54pm Mar 18, 2011 12:54pm
Really nice play Jade & FX Petra,happy for ya.
I missed the move but better to be flat than crushed
like i'm sure some traders were.
Cheers.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #100
  • Mar 18, 2011 1:35pm Mar 18, 2011 1:35pm
Quoting jezek5
Really nice play Jade & FX Petra,happy for ya.
I missed the move but better to be flat than crushed
like i'm sure some traders were.
Cheers.
I lost some $$$ on the way down. I'm making more on the way up. When Gordon Gekko said ,"The key to this game is your capital reserve. If you don't have it you can't piss in the tall wheat with the big dogs." , I didn't realize at the time just how true that was. When you take a beating, it's ok, a long as you have the reserves to capitalize when things swing back your way.

Regards,
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