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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #23,441
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:13am Mar 17, 2011 6:13am
Quoting ukmanthailan
The fact that Anthoniex posted an H1 chart is not really relevant Fana - that drop was 200 points over three 5M bars - you can't perform a rescue in the middle of that. Admittedly, if you keep your position sizes safe, relative to your total capital, it might not have been an irrecoverable situation but during that quick drop you would have had the choice of bailing out, flipping or sitting tight, and not much else (certainly not rescuing).
Hi UK. Yes, true. I didnt noticed it. I take it back then. Now it makes sense... Regards
  • #23,442
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:17am Mar 17, 2011 7:17am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
to begin writing something worthwhile. Just wanna figure out what I'm doing wrong... that's whats killing me...
Sounds like you need to go back to basics. Have you tried just observing a naked 5min EURUSD chart? Looking for the start of a run (time window) and an end of a run (making a leg). These are normally just a few bars and perhaps you can trade them (very small entries) so you understand nimbleness. In for a few bars and then out - then wait for the next time window and repeat.
  • #23,443
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:49am Mar 17, 2011 7:49am
The charts are your boss (not what you think should happen), and your job is to listen to your charts. Based on your results yesterday, your charts have fired you..[/quote]

Thats a good one I like that saying

Atomic: You should have never been hired to trade unless you possess a edge over the market. This is what nobody really wants to hear and they fight it. You have no business trading until that edge is prevalent and well cultivated. If you operate with out you are not trading but gambling. Most will never develop this edge because of faulty thinking. This method FTI was kind enough to share is not a edge but just a way to structure the game and position size. Never ever fall for the news trade you will chip away everything. As stated a million times on this thread flow down the river
  • #23,444
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:12am Mar 17, 2011 8:12am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Well I've got a program which trades profitably... but it only makes 0-10% p.a. which isn't worth it imo. I get an equal to greater amount from just leaving the money in the bank which is where most of my money is atm.

I predominantly traded EUR/USD but started trading other currencies as well about a year ago. Can't say I see too many patterns when I look at the charts. All the moves seem pretty dissimilar to me. Every time something happens it's a surprise to me. Sure there's the robotic buy every time stochastics are at the 20 level or when...
Why are you putting yourself through this? As for what you are doing wrong, I'm going to guess you are doing just about everything wrong. Why do you want or need to be a trader?
  • #23,445
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:44am Mar 17, 2011 8:44am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Well I've got a program which trades profitably... but it only makes 0-10% p.a. which isn't worth it imo. I get an equal to greater amount from just leaving the money in the bank which is where most of my money is atm.

I predominantly traded EUR/USD but started trading other currencies as well about a year ago. Can't say I see too many patterns when I look at the charts. All the moves seem pretty dissimilar to me. Every time something happens it's a surprise to me. Sure there's the robotic buy every time stochastics are at the 20 level or when...
... what a scorpion you have there mate!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #23,446
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:53am Mar 17, 2011 8:53am
I know quite a few of you traded the usdjpy yesterday to fill that enormous gap. I took the trade on the M5 pin. my question is what spread were you quoted by your broker. Anyone know what the ebs spread peaked at? I had to pay a 30 pip spread with Oanda that drastically reduced my size even though I had reduced it already. I had to pay 7690's when price was in the 7660's
  • #23,447
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:08am Mar 17, 2011 9:08am
Quoting Guerrillawar
I know quite a few of you traded the usdjpy yesterday to fill that enormous gap. I took the trade on the M5 pin. my question is what spread were you quoted by your broker. Anyone know what the ebs spread peaked at? I had to pay a 30 pip spread with Oanda that drastically reduced my size even though I had reduced it already. I had to pay 7690's when price was in the 7660's
20 pip spread on fxdd.
  • #23,448
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:45am Mar 17, 2011 9:45am
Quoting fti
many brave samurais.
bansai!

regards
"Fifty Angels" Save the World.

prayer for all angels:
1.I'm One, it will you freedom.
2.I'm One, I'm not only form.
3.I'm One, I'm not only name.
4.I'm One, I'm creative for the harmony.
5.I'm One, I'm the cause and effect.
6.I'm One, can not kill me.
7.I'm One, can not steal me.
8.I'm One, can not be unfaithful me.
9.I'm One, can not lie to me.
10.I'm One, can not lust another.

One.
  • #23,449
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:56am Mar 17, 2011 9:56am
good afternoon, fti sir!
wish everything is getting better on your side.
regards
  • #23,450
  • Edited 10:23am Mar 17, 2011 10:11am | Edited 10:23am
Quoting Gro
"Fifty Angels" Save the World.

prayer for all angels:
1.I'm One, it will you freedom.
2.I'm One, I'm not only form.
3.I'm One, I'm not only name.
4.I'm One, I'm creative for the harmony.
5.I'm One, I'm the cause and effect.
6.I'm One, can not kill me.
7.I'm One, can not steal me.
8.I'm One, can not be unfaithful me.
9.I'm One, can not lie to me.
10.I'm One, can not lust another.

One.
we are ONE.
We have choice.
We can choose to be ONE.

regards
  • #23,451
  • Mar 17, 2011 10:20am Mar 17, 2011 10:20am
Quoting sakatalight
good afternoon, fti sir!
wish everything is getting better on your side.
regards
hello sakatalight sir,
salutations

sorry late to reply, i was napping.

yes, all is ok with me.
my two sons, they are the ones suffering at the moment.
I pray they will be strong until i am able to "rescue" them.

I hope you are in good health and mind. You are very close to the Japanese disaster. I hope you are little impacted from all the crazys thats happening and your trading is great.

regards
  • #23,452
  • Mar 17, 2011 11:04am Mar 17, 2011 11:04am
Quoting Guerrillawar
I know quite a few of you traded the usdjpy yesterday to fill that enormous gap. I took the trade on the M5 pin. my question is what spread were you quoted by your broker. Anyone know what the ebs spread peaked at? I had to pay a 30 pip spread with Oanda that drastically reduced my size even though I had reduced it already. I had to pay 7690's when price was in the 7660's
markets also have tsunamis, sometimes.
Yesterday was one of them during twinlight zone.
Now we on curfew.
so be most cautious on exposures.
Not bite more than can chew.

regards
  • #23,453
  • Mar 17, 2011 11:06am Mar 17, 2011 11:06am
Quoting fti
ment.
I pray they will be strong until i am able to "rescue" them.



regards

Chief,

YOU ALREADY HAVE "rescued" MANY PEOPLE HERE...


V
  • #23,454
  • Mar 17, 2011 11:12am Mar 17, 2011 11:12am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Chief,

YOU ALREADY HAVE "rescued" MANY PEOPLE HERE...


V
vic

stay nimble.
watch out for after shocks.

regards
  • #23,455
  • Mar 17, 2011 11:51am Mar 17, 2011 11:51am
Does the market always fill the gap like that, then resume the trend? In a situation like this, should we be trying to catch the minor corrective uptrend? I would have stayed short, and do some quick flips as impulse dictates (but nimble enough to close position as it nears danger zone). I tend to be able to switch MO's easily, whether a longer term move or sniping ranges. The switch between MO's is continuous depending on my terrain, foreign cap ect. I hope this is not a bad strategy for now. Sticking to 1-1-1 is very helpful.
  • #23,456
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:02pm Mar 17, 2011 12:02pm
Quoting fullperson
Does the market always fill the gap like that, then resume the trend? In a situation like this, should we be trying to catch the minor corrective uptrend? I would have stayed short, and do some quick flips as impulse dictates (but nimble enough to close position as it nears danger zone). I tend to be able to switch MO's easily, whether a longer term move or sniping ranges. The switch between MO's is continuous depending on my terrain, foreign cap ect. I hope this is not a bad strategy for now. Sticking to 1-1-1 is very helpful.
LOL -- It's dangerous to think that the market always does anything. IMHO -- a gap that forms as a result of a FA may not get filled. A gap that appears out of no where will likely be filled, sometimes within hours and other times in days.
  • #23,457
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:51pm Mar 17, 2011 12:51pm
sorry dumb question to ask, I've just seen many gaps that get filled recently.

Luckily exposures size is down and nimble. I usually place a scout when impulse dictates the fill in the gap. As price moves along I usually decide if I can manage it or not + if it reacts to any previous levels with good vol. If momentum stops (which it didn't this time) I tend to close the position immediately (because I know I am fighting trend). I've done this enough not to worry too much, I'm pretty confident that I can manage (and foreign cap will pad any small gap losses). I'm just asking to see what's up (although ultimately your opinions will not dictate my MO)...I guess I'm doing conversation more than questioning. Kind of like "woah, did you see that?"


Quoting GEfx
LOL -- It's dangerous to think that the market always does anything. IMHO -- a gap that forms as a result of a FA may not get filled. A gap that appears out of no where will likely be filled, sometimes within hours and other times in days.
  • #23,458
  • Mar 17, 2011 1:06pm Mar 17, 2011 1:06pm
Quoting fullperson
sorry dumb question to ask, I've just seen many gaps that get filled recently.

Luckily exposures size is down and nimble. I usually place a scout when impulse dictates the fill in the gap. As price moves along I usually decide if I can manage it or not + if it reacts to any previous levels with good vol. If momentum stops (which it didn't this time) I tend to close the position immediately (because I know I am fighting trend). I've done this enough not to worry too much, I'm pretty confident that I can manage (and foreign cap will pad any small...
Yep, I understand the need for conversation and please do not take my comment as being harsh. I think you are on one of the topics that seldom gets discussed on FF. You can expand the view of gaps to include several things, and statistically speaking, gap filling seems to be the full time job of the forex. It is an excellent concept that can make you a lot of money, calm your nerves, etc. And when you recognize it, you will definitely say, "woah, look at that".
  • #23,459
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:23pm Mar 17, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting fti
we are ONE.
We have choice.
We can choose to be ONE.

regards

Now already yes
  • #23,460
  • Mar 17, 2011 3:09pm Mar 17, 2011 3:09pm
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Well... I'll agree that my mind is somewhat of a mess... but that's what I'm getting at... how on earth do I sort it out.

Secondly... no there was no trend... usd/jpy has been trading in a range for about 2-3 months now... and when I heard about the tsunami... the nuke plant + all the news supporting the fact that USD should be a pretty decent thing to get into... I basically said... ok well... the japanese crisis is a no brainer imo... the USD outlook just helps the situation... lets proceed to buy as the range is likely to end... and now......
sorry to hear that u suffer losses in ur account.here i have some suggestion.
1.start caring about ur losses
2.stop reading books on trading dare say even stop reading this thread.
3.as seykota says markets gives what u wants, so be very aware what u want from the markets.
4.speculation means spying or observing, start from anywhere like put a dot on white wall and start making observation in relation to that and start writing down and see if u can take advange of observation practically
5.before entering the market decide what market has to do that will make u wrong and take the loss at that point.
6.know when to break all the above suggestion.
By the way i myself lost some serious money recently 30% of my account[trade logic was same as yours].it took me couple of days to recover from the event and i am slowly trying to recover my loses.hope i will be alright in next couple of weeks.thanks and regards and finally go easy on urself.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
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