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vsa with Malcolm

  • #16,661
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:17am Mar 17, 2011 6:17am
paper trade Cable, sell @1.6140.

Based on trigger number and 5min no demand

Stop @ 1.6175.
Target @ 1.6105
  • #16,662
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:27am Mar 17, 2011 6:27am
Quoting KinsaleForex
paper trade Cable, sell @1.6140.

Based on trigger number and 5min no demand

Stop @ 1.6175.
Target @ 1.6105
Stop to BE.
  • #16,663
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:34am Mar 17, 2011 6:34am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Stop to BE.
Liam when do you consider a trigger number as no more valid?
  • #16,664
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:36am Mar 17, 2011 6:36am
Quoting amletit
Liam when do you consider a trigger number as no more valid?
Not a clue to be honest, i've only been looking at trigger numbers in depth since Monday, hence the trade being on paper!

Someone else will be able to answer that question a lot better than I can.
  • #16,665
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:38am Mar 17, 2011 6:38am
So I had been feeling somewhat lost on the EU after yesterday afternoon's PA and then moreso when I saw some calls last night for shorts based on weakness at the 1.4. Why was I not seeing this... why was I still so biased to the longs? On the daily charts the hull is still blue and sloped up and price closed basically on the hull yesterday and still above the PAL. Also Tueday was a SO but then Wednesday was a downbar on good volume we look at the close... doesn't look weak to me.

So I got up as I usually do at 4AM my time which is 1hr before LO. This is also the end of the 2nd 4hr bar for me each day but more on that in a minute.

So we had a brief move down in Asia and then crawled back up to around the daily high. I was flipping through from the daily down to the 5min and then went back to the 4hr as the most recent bar grabbed my eye. A NS with volume less than the previous 2 bars but still on good volume showing a downbar that just didn't want to go down... nice tight range of only 25 pips... OK then so I set a pending buy order at the high and my SL at the low so even if it didn't work out I would be out 25pips x 2 lots which I could live with for a 4hr chart entry.

Red lines left to right;

1. High volume downbar closing off it's lows
2. Higher volume upbar closing on it's high, two bar reversal...
3-5. Downbars on ever increasing volumes without increased spread and not even able to make a lower low than the day before
6. Possible SO bar from end of day yesterday on that crazy move up... not sure what to make of this
7. Decent volume test type bar showing buyers still present
8. NS back above 3900... Nice enough placement and I still see buyers so why not

Entry 3936, SL 3911 (has been moved to BE+35 just now while doing up this post), TP 1 was at 3961 and TP 2 is open. If we close above 1.4 today then I will hold this longer term with SL at BE+35 stepping it up as we go.
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,666
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:47am Mar 17, 2011 6:47am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Not a clue to be honest, i've only been looking at trigger numbers in depth since Monday, hence the trade being on paper!

Someone else will be able to answer that question a lot better than I can.
I hope we find an answer, because they're starting to be too many on my screen
  • #16,667
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:48am Mar 17, 2011 6:48am
Quoting amletit
I hope we find an answer, because they're starting to be too many on my screen
Ha, yeah I get what you mean, i've been getting rid of them if I get a bar on higher volume. On EU i have one at 1.4033 and one at 1.4018. The two spikes of the day.
  • #16,668
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:49am Mar 17, 2011 6:49am
Quoting pres78
So I had been feeling somewhat lost on the EU after yesterday afternoon's PA and then moreso when I saw some calls last night for shorts based on weakness at the 1.4. Why was I not seeing this... why was I still so biased to the longs? On the daily charts the hull is still blue and sloped up and price closed basically on the hull yesterday and still above the PAL. Also Tueday was a SO but then Wednesday was a downbar on good volume we look at the close... doesn't look weak to me.

So I got up as I usually do at 4AM my time which is 1hr before LO....

Nice work pres, great too see analysis of 4hr charts because alot of the time i find them really hard to read, so thankyou.
  • #16,669
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:50am Mar 17, 2011 6:50am
Quoting pres78
So I had been feeling somewhat lost on the EU after yesterday afternoon's PA and then moreso when I saw some calls last night for shorts based on weakness at the 1.4....
Nice, 35 pips guaranteed, can't complain about that!

Seeing as you're my go to guy for info on trigger numbers, any comments on the cable trade i posted on the last page?
  • #16,670
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:56am Mar 17, 2011 6:56am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Ha, yeah I get what you mean, i've been getting rid of them if I get a bar on higher volume. On EU i have one at 1.4033 and one at 1.4018. The two spikes of the day.
4018 is on average volume though. Is it significant?
  • #16,671
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:59am Mar 17, 2011 6:59am
Quoting amletit
4018 is on average volume though. Is it significant?
Again, i'm reasonably new to this so i'm just watching reactions to that area. I left it in because on my charts it sticks out look a sore thumb.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 5min.png Size: 97 KB
  • #16,672
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:04am Mar 17, 2011 7:04am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Again, i'm reasonably new to this so i'm just watching reactions to that area. I left it in because on my charts it sticks out look a sore thumb.
Ok. On my chart volume there is higher than last xxxxxxxx periods, but not that high.
  • #16,673
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:07am Mar 17, 2011 7:07am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Nice, 35 pips guaranteed, can't complain about that!

Seeing as you're my go to guy for info on trigger numbers, any comments on the cable trade i posted on the last page?
Will take a look and respond...

35 pips on lot 2 which could be longer term if we get a good daily close above 1.4 (would prefer close above that old high at 4035)... already banked 25 on lot 1 .
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,674
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:15am Mar 17, 2011 7:15am
Quoting KinsaleForex
paper trade Cable, sell @1.6140.

Based on trigger number and 5min no demand

Stop @ 1.6175.
Target @ 1.6105
What was your trigger #? and is this 5min?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,675
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:18am Mar 17, 2011 7:18am
Quoting pres78
What was your trigger #? and is this 5min?
Easier if i post a chart i'm sure;

Now it hasn't hit the target or anything but i'm just wondering about the analysis behind it more than anything, stop placement and trade management is then down to me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable paper trade.png Size: 84 KB
  • #16,676
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:22am Mar 17, 2011 7:22am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Easier if i post a chart i'm sure;

Now it hasn't hit the target or anything but i'm just wondering about the analysis behind it more than anything, stop placement and trade management is then down to me.
The problem for me would have been I couldn't see a comfortable weak background to short.
  • #16,677
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:32am Mar 17, 2011 7:32am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Easier if i post a chart i'm sure;

Now it hasn't hit the target or anything but i'm just wondering about the analysis behind it more than anything, stop placement and trade management is then down to me.
Yes the anlysis is good... look at your trigger bar it's a squat bar also with less spread and much higher volume than the previous wide spread bar.

The issues I do see is that we are very much in an upmove and based on an upbar trigger as HG mentioned (I believe anyway) your first instinct would be to look for a long off this level... We had a squat type bar which closed well off it's highs but then the next bar was up... would have felt better if it was down showing sellers. The second bar after was down but didn't close below the trigger. HMM...

Now we did eventually get below the trigger and actually tested it a few times before the ND you have marked, however both tests technically failed as the next bars were upbars.

I would hav prefered for the ND to have touched the trigger level (but that's just me).

Also my filters (Hull and PAL) on the 15min would have kept me out of any shorts. If I am going to coutertrade I like the 15min to be in agreement.

35 pips down could be tough today but since you are targetting above 6100 and we have already had a good move up it might work out.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,678
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:37am Mar 17, 2011 7:37am
Quoting pres78
Yes the anlysis is good... look at your trigger bar it's a squat bar also with less spread and much higher volume than the previous wide spread bar.

The issues I do see is that we are very much in an upmove and based on an upbar trigger as HG mentioned (I believe anyway) your first instinct would be to look for a long off this level... We had a squat type bar which closed well off it's highs but then the next bar was up... would have felt better if it was down showing sellers. The second bar after was down but didn't close below the trigger. HMM......
Thanks for the reply, appreciate it.

I'm only paper trading it so more interested in the analysis. It got to +28 at best and i moved the stop to BE, which has now been hit. 28 pip move ain't bad though. Knowing me I probably would've closed it once I saw some actual profit

Another chart, this time EU, about 10/15mins ago, shorting EU is perhaps a bit stupid at the moment;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 5min trigger.png Size: 85 KB
  • #16,679
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:55am Mar 17, 2011 7:55am
Ok this is the way I use trigger lines and tests... it may not be right and it may not be in agreement with how others use them but it works for me.


Trigger Lines from High Volume Bars

  1. I mark the highest level trigger line in the area of current price action which means I could go back to an earlier trigger line if price gets back into it's area and no higher volume bar has printed within it. (someone asked about when to get rid of trigger lines)
  2. I prefer for price to have moved away from the trigger line and then retrace into it printing a test, ND or NS
  3. I prefer for the test, ND or NS to have touched the trigger level
  4. I will watch the H/L and C of the trigger bar although I find that most of the time the close ends up being the trigger
  5. Many times I will use a 15min trigger line and take entry off the 5min... especially when I see a nice trigger bar, SO, Upthrust etc...

Now this covers my basic trigger line entries from a HVB

Triggers from S/D, DPP, POC's, VAH, VAL, Swing High, Swing Low etc...

 

  1. I also watch for tests, ND's, NS's that print and areas not neccessarily of high volume but areas that have provided support, resistance, and volume related POC's, VAH and VAL etc... it is amazing how many times price will hit, test and then bounce from these points... even the daily pivot and the previous days H/L and the previous weeks H/L.

Look at GU today it hit yesterday's low and bounced... and well image that the very last down bar that made today's low was a squat bar... interesting.

I will post a chart later of GU 5 min showing a couple of times when price tested recent swing highs and bounced continuing the upmove.

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,680
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:02am Mar 17, 2011 8:02am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Thanks for the reply, appreciate it.

I'm only paper trading it so more interested in the analysis. It got to +28 at best and i moved the stop to BE, which has now been hit. 28 pip move ain't bad though. Knowing me I probably would've closed it once I saw some actual profit

Another chart, this time EU, about 10/15mins ago, shorting EU is perhaps a bit stupid at the moment;
The second bar you have marked as an UT for me looks more like a test... Many time I will watch 15 min to form a nice trigger such as SO, or UT etc... and then drop to the 5 min for entry.

Nice 15min UT with a close trigger at 4030 and then that nice 5 min test bar of the trigger. Entry would have been at 4015 and I would have used the high of the test bar as SL at 4030. TP would have been 1.4 and would have been hit for 15 pips.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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