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Silent Service Method

  • #12,041
  • Mar 15, 2011 3:00pm Mar 15, 2011 3:00pm
I am looking at this at the moment. What do you think?

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Kind Regards zol
  • #12,042
  • Mar 16, 2011 2:26am Mar 16, 2011 2:26am
Last week or so...just crazy.....
  • #12,043
  • Mar 16, 2011 4:39pm Mar 16, 2011 4:39pm
Congrats to those of your short USD/JPY... I'd take the money & run though.

Amazing move in the last hour...
  • #12,044
  • Mar 16, 2011 8:19pm Mar 16, 2011 8:19pm
Since I was not fortunate enough to be short going in, I went long during the panic. The currency moved over 300pips in <30minutes -- Arguably the most liquid currency in the world. Also note that the spread went from 1.8pips to 30pips. And this wasn't just the 30pips you see right after non-farm payrolls, this was sustained for at least 15-minutes because you couldn't even trust your Bloomberg terminal to give you the right quote. It then dropped down to about 18pips from 5:30 to 6pm, at which point I left work to drive home.

I've never seen anything like it...

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  • #12,045
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:47pm Mar 16, 2011 11:47pm
Quoting Low
I'm sure there's plenty of punters willing to part with their Citi shares.....

I'm resisting the urge to go long and leave the house. Too volatile for unsupervised day trades.
This is a special position that I am taking. The t/p is 15 years from now. I don't even bother with stop losses on this position. I hope it falls again. I will simply reload. In fact, I would love to see $1 again - I will buy a few thousand shares at that point.

Something tells me I am not going to get that opportunity though.
  • #12,046
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:47pm Mar 16, 2011 11:47pm
Quoting amber97
Well put, I also share this viewpoint of owning physical gold & silver. Not so easy to convince some armageddon-type family members though. Hate to see people put all their eggs in one basket so to speak.

BTW, great discussion on fiat money systems; been having a tough time trying to understand that whole concept.

Thanks for an always interesting thread...
Agreed. I still prefer wheat over gold. Go figure.
  • #12,047
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:49pm Mar 16, 2011 11:49pm
Quoting zoli
Is this something??????? I have no stock account but I should buy perhaps.
Suggestions?
Attachment
Yes, this chart looks really good to be honest. I would also like to see heavy volume by he time the week closes as well. Good eye on this chart.
  • #12,048
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:51pm Mar 16, 2011 11:51pm
Quoting zoli
I am looking at this at the moment. What do you think?

Attachment

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This IS a classic set up. I am assuming that you are talking about trading cfds by the charting. One thing is for sure, it takes a nice sized account to trade copper in the futures markets. However, I like this chart so far.....a pop up would get me very interested.

This could also be bullish for the Aussie, as they export a ton of copper.
  • #12,049
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:52pm Mar 16, 2011 11:52pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Since I was not fortunate enough to be short going in, I went long during the panic....
Samer must have put a position on.
  • #12,050
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:53pm Mar 16, 2011 11:53pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Since I was not fortunate enough to be short going in, I went long during the panic....

The bounce was nothing short of predictable. I was short. I got out when I saw how far it had dropped in that short time. Notice how the USD/JPY reacted to 80 again and started to fall. Interesting times.....
  • #12,051
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:22am Mar 17, 2011 12:22am
Quoting clockwork71
This IS a classic set up. I am assuming that you are talking about trading cfds by the charting. One thing is for sure, it takes a nice sized account to trade copper in the futures markets. However, I like this chart so far.....a pop up would get me very interested.

This could also be bullish for the Aussie, as they export a ton of copper.
Hi CW,

thanks for the advice. I have a standard account in forex and my broker offers CFDs, Indexes, Gold, Silver and some com. Tese things are more volatile though they can have a nice clear big trend. I need to get used to them....Copper has not follown thorough properly just yet. Toyota is also a good car company and it is leading the Hybrid car market for now.
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Kind Regards zol
  • #12,052
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:48am Mar 17, 2011 2:48am
Quoting InfinitySL
Since I was not fortunate enough to be short going in, I went long during the panic.....

Absolutely brilliant Infinity.

I actually lost money trying to scalp the volatility. go figure.

I really should know better.
  • #12,053
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:22am Mar 17, 2011 8:22am
Quoting Low
Absolutely brilliant Infinity.

I actually lost money trying to scalp the volatility. go figure.

I really should know better.
Hard to scalp that thing when the market (and Oanda in particular) start charging a 30pip bid/ask... And i'm not sure anyone was lucky enough to get the bottom of ~76.60.

This was a hairy trade though. Every tick was about 10-15pips away from the last tick, so depending on how your broker was quoting your bid ask, you could see 40pip swings in your PNL every second, and 70-100pip swings over the course of 5-mins. There were a few times during that trade I was glad i only risked a small amount.

Not really my style of trading at all, but when you see a panic like that, especially on a yen currency where you know in the back of your mind their central bank probably is going to intervene at some point, i think the risk/reward is in your favor.

Of course after you take the profit, you wish your position had been 3x or 10x as large...but then the psychology is totally different!
  • #12,054
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:43am Mar 17, 2011 8:43am
Quoting zoli
Hi CW,

thanks for the advice. I have a standard account in forex and my broker offers CFDs, Indexes, Gold, Silver and some com. Tese things are more volatile though they can have a nice clear big trend. I need to get used to them....Copper has not follown thorough properly just yet. Toyota is also a good car company and it is leading the Hybrid car market for now.
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Although i agree w/ the concept that Toyota is a great car company, and I have owned several...I don't know that I would be ready to jump on that stock at the moment, and certainly not because of anything hybrid related.

Since you are not in the US, you may not be aware of something - most people here don't want hybrids. These cars are doing so well that there was only 250,000 of then sold in America during 2009. (Even less in 2010) The government gives you some kind of tax credit for buying them, since nobody truly wants to plug in the car.

Here is the kicker about the hybrid/electric car: It takes more energy to produce them than it does the Hummer. Oh, and the whole idea of plugging in to save the air? Well.....most electricity comes from coal burning power plants in the US, thus ruining all of the advantages.

I think the hybrid is a fad until the technology catches up with the necessity. I could be wrong, but few people I know would be interested in one of these little wind up cars. (There is a prototype from Toyota that has 450 hp, which makes it interesting.)

If you are interested in buying a car company....buy the one Toyota execs have recently admitted is the one they truly worry about: Hyundai.

As far as TM, they are a great company. But the Yen is screaming towards records highs. This will make their cars more expensive in the USA, and other places. Also, there is a serious lack of energy for manufacturing in Japan as well.

I would be careful buying at this point, even if there could be a bounce. I would be interested in buying this stock when there is a little less uncertainty in Japan.

Just my opinion.
  • #12,055
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:02pm Mar 17, 2011 12:02pm
Funny we were talking about how gold was a sucker's play, and that wheat and other foods are the real currency of choice during bad times.....

Corn just went limit up today.
  • #12,056
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:08pm Mar 17, 2011 12:08pm
Speaking of copper, here is a weekly chart I've been watching for a potential long. On the daily chart, it is apparent to me that we have completed a H&S pattern so I'm uncertain as to entering long anywhere near the neckline. Will wait for PA around there and probably a close above 42 before entering? or maybe I'm completely off base and should be thinking short?

P.S. Here in CA the Prius is typically driven by those 'alpha beard' types making a statement The general population doesn't have much interest in them.
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  • #12,057
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:40pm Mar 17, 2011 2:40pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Hard to scalp that thing when the market (and Oanda in particular) start charging a 30pip bid/ask......
I was in the same situation as you, not being short. I also bought when it seemed obvious that Sydney open chaos had set up a long high probability trade. I also trade with Oanda and couldn't bring myself to pay the 30 pip spread, but when it "dropped" to 15 I got in... and the trade worked out as expected.

It's not my style to trade like that either, but opportunity knocks and one must open the door huh.
  • #12,058
  • Mar 17, 2011 5:55pm Mar 17, 2011 5:55pm
Quoting amber97
Speaking of copper, here is a weekly chart I've been watching for a potential long. On the daily chart, it is apparent to me that we have completed a H&S pattern so I'm uncertain as to entering long anywhere near the neckline. Will wait for PA around there and probably a close above 42 before entering? or maybe I'm completely off base and should be thinking short?

P.S. Here in CA the Prius is typically driven by those 'alpha beard' types making a statement The general population doesn't have much interest in them.
Interesting chart, but if you are unsure about this company, you can always check out FCX, as it is probably the most utilized on Wall Street as a potential copper play. (I haven't checked it, that'snot a recommendation on anything I see....)

Speaking of the "alpha beard" I have found that most of the guys that have one - aren't exactly Alpha.

Chris
  • #12,059
  • Mar 17, 2011 5:57pm Mar 17, 2011 5:57pm
Quoting o990l6mh
I was in the same situation as you, not being short. I also bought when it seemed obvious that Sydney open chaos had set up a long high probability trade. I also trade with Oanda and couldn't bring myself to pay the 30 pip spread, but when it "dropped" to 15 I got in... and the trade worked out as expected.

It's not my style to trade like that either, but opportunity knocks and one must open the door huh.
Great example of adapting in this post. I wouldn't necessarily recommend trading like this very often, but there are rare circumstances when you just know a bounce is coming. This kind of trading comes with experience, as it is something that can't be taught.
  • #12,060
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:06pm Mar 17, 2011 6:06pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Hard to scalp that thing when the market (and Oanda in particular) start charging a 30pip bid/ask...
I gotta say, I'm a little ashamed of it all. I didn't have the balls to buy any yen related products, but had a few reasons to buy the euro, so I did.

Problem was, I was looking at day/session trade criteria, and once I was in the trade, I realized I hadn't been planning on babysitting the trade for the next few hours like I would during NY. As usual, I was early and my position got tested a few times, and on the third test in 1.5 hours (everything's moving well except the euro), I bailed for a loss.

Would've been a great trade to hold onto, but all in all, it was completely outside of any trading rules established for that type of trade (mainly I rely on liquidity/volume to take me where I need to be, and it was an hour or so before Asia would even open).

So WTH, i did something stupid, paid for it, and get the double punishment of seeing that it would've made a pile of $$$.

I'm more than happy to thank Mr. Market for accepting my charitable contribution in exchange for a valuable lesson I seem to plainly forget on a regular basis.
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