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  • #41
  • Mar 16, 2011 2:49pm Mar 16, 2011 2:49pm
Quoting lolygagv2
Wow, I posted this last night, drew my long term trend line from Nov 08 lows until now, and the line passes right at about .976.

I have my trade locked in for profit, but I didn't expect to be soo spot on, it hit .976 and boom, instant demand comes in and drives it up 50 pips in 5 minutes! That's a lot of demand... Does anyone know what 50 pips translates into in Aussie or USD domination buying power? 10 billion?

ANyway, this could merely be a bounce in the long run. Or it could be major support, and a continuation of the 2 year trend, at this...
10 yards,50 pips this time of day would not even need 1 yard i'd say.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #42
  • Edited 3:07pm Mar 16, 2011 2:50pm | Edited 3:07pm
Quoting jezek5
Nearly there now but i'm going to wait
and see how it plays out,thinking we could spike
down into the high 97s,watching and waiting.
Guess i should have shorted when i closed
my long trade but i just can't bring myself
to short this pair.
Bought at 9780,BE stop,see how we go.
Again 9805 needs to hold on the hourlys.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #43
  • Mar 16, 2011 5:13pm Mar 16, 2011 5:13pm
Quoting jezek5
Bought at 9780,BE stop,see how we go.
Again 9805 needs to hold on the hourlys.
Blimey,went to the gym and came back to this,
stop hit.
Leaving this alone till tomorrow.
Cheers.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #44
  • Mar 16, 2011 8:36pm Mar 16, 2011 8:36pm
I am out ... at least for now.
This pair hit to 0.97 low.

Anyone still shorting this pair?
  • #45
  • Mar 16, 2011 9:50pm Mar 16, 2011 9:50pm
It is hard to tell right now, it keeps spiking lower i would prefer it if it hit 9680 and or 9600, i may add to longs at those levels if PA shows promise.
You are right, it is hard posting in the same thread with that ignorant tool.
Biggest joker
  • #46
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:25pm Mar 16, 2011 10:25pm
Took another short 9800
Biggest joker
  • #47
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:25pm Mar 16, 2011 11:25pm
Quoting baron193
Took another short 9800
Stilll holding mine + 100 pips, should I take profit or keep on keeping on downward...........decisions lol.
  • #48
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:42pm Mar 16, 2011 11:42pm
exited mine even ,might retest 9845, will look at it again later
Biggest joker
  • #49
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:46am Mar 17, 2011 2:46am
Had to try a short at this level 45, tight stop if wrong...
Biggest joker
  • #50
  • Mar 17, 2011 3:33am Mar 17, 2011 3:33am
Volatile day, possibly more ahead with the US core CPI (contraction expected), US unemployment numbers (expected positive) and then Philly Fed (expected negative).

Often the USD will do well in the lead up to CPI data, but so also can the Aussie as market speculates about good numbers leading to a positive day for equities.

It's important to remember that the JPY situation is episodic in nature, and not an underlying long term driver of the market as a whole, i.e. the drama will pass, and market will (eventually) resume the bull trend.

The EUR/AUD cross seems well positioned here on resistance (light blue horizontal, previous support + the weekly 55 ema). This matters if AU is to go long, it's important to see bearish engulfing candles on this cross if AU is going to find serious legs north.
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  • #51
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:25am Mar 17, 2011 6:25am
Keep the Quad Witch in mind - tomorrow (Friday).

Quad Witching - This is the day when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures (SSF) all expire once a quarter. Quadruple witching days occur on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. Volatility in the currency market can result from traders closing out or adjusting positions to meet cash contract obligations that are due or to re-position for the new contract period. This is an event to note and forward schedule in your diary.
  • #52
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:44am Mar 17, 2011 6:44am
Quoting Jade Gate
Keep the Quad Witch in mind - tomorrow (Friday).

Quad Witching - This is the day when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures (SSF) all expire once a quarter. Quadruple witching days occur on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. Volatility in the currency market can result from traders closing out or adjusting positions to meet cash contract obligations that are due or to re-position for the new contract period. This is an event to note and forward schedule in your diary....
Thanks Jade,clean forgot about that,what with the Aussie
and its tendency to track the S & P could make for an interesting day.
Although the last few witchings were pretty dull
Still think when things settle down hot money will chase the Aussie back up some.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #53
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:52am Mar 17, 2011 6:52am
It`s doing well it seems,closed most of my positions at the pivot to make them long term friendly.(they were swing positions too big to risk another leg down as it would have given me a big drawdown)

If we close like this we will be above the daily pivot, a good start for some more buying and upside tomorrow.

Hopefully with the press conference today and etc, there is more confidence in the markets... at least untill a meltdown occurs.(logic and gut feeling says they lost control and are doing damage control now, but my better part is hoping it doesn`t go critical to save Japan more trouble)

Hope everyone managed to come out ok from this!
  • #54
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:31am Mar 17, 2011 8:31am
9800 to 9850 looks like the range in play,
think i will be looking to buy dips on this,
would be nice to visit 98 and get long.
Waiting.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #55
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:42am Mar 17, 2011 8:42am
Quoting jezek5
9800 to 9850 looks like the range in play,
think i will be looking to buy dips on this,
would be nice to visit 98 and get long.
Waiting.
Going to drop down to a 15 min chart to look for an entry,
not sure 98 or near will print,might have to just jump in
if i can find the right level of risk.
9824 looks interesting.
Just need all my bits to line up.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #56
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:08am Mar 17, 2011 9:08am
Quoting jezek5
Going to drop down to a 15 min chart to look for an entry,
not sure 98 or near will print,might have to just jump in
if i can find the right level of risk.
9824 looks interesting.
Just need all my bits to line up.
Got long at 34 stop at 17.
Just need to clear 62.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #57
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:21am Mar 17, 2011 9:21am
Quoting jezek5
Got long at 34 stop at 17.
Just need to clear 62.
Will be watching the test of 62 very closely,
stop at BE now.
9900 looks like possible target.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #58
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:28am Mar 17, 2011 9:28am
i know this is the wrong thread but Fiber looks to
be setting up for a long as well.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #59
  • Edited 9:52am Mar 17, 2011 9:30am | Edited 9:52am
Quoting jezek5
Will be watching the test of 62 very closely,
stop at BE now.
9900 looks like possible target.
Book half at 70,stop to 41 on rest.
36 pips.
Stop moved up to 44 now.
Stop hit.
Not much follow through.
Picked up Fiber at 82 BE stop already
on that cause things are feeling strange again.
Cheers.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #60
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:43am Mar 17, 2011 9:43am
bullish divergence, breakout of unsustainable downtrend, I'm going long, exact entry, sl and tp will post soon.
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