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vsa with Malcolm

  • #16,581
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:52am Mar 16, 2011 11:52am
Quoting pres78
EU 15min 2 bar bottom reversal... second bar on higher volume... not that it means much right about now
Stay out of the market today.
  • #16,582
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:54am Mar 16, 2011 11:54am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Stay out of the market today.
good advise my friend.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #16,583
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:56am Mar 16, 2011 11:56am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Stay out of the market today.
Been out just watching the madness... only the one trade today on oil but it was enough to more than call it a day.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,584
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:11pm Mar 16, 2011 12:11pm
1.Cause vs. Effect
2.Effort vs. Result
3.Supply vs. Demand

What I see is a very high volume Effort to push the prices higher on H8 two bar reversal pattern, and then no Result: immediate Supply on next bar then.POC taken down. High and Very High volume down bar next ones.
Right now we have a battle of POC at 1.3899.

The question is: to what extent one can blame the situation in Japan for thaht?

Thx,
Seb
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  • #16,585
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:12pm Mar 16, 2011 12:12pm
What an interesting day, reason why we're here aside, and with humble and deep concern for Japan's citizens.

Positive news momentum coming in now giving us a 40 pip upswing - who knows how NZ/Aus/Asia will react. I'm thinking they 5pm close us around/above the key 1.39, leaving technical optimism for bulls still.

Would be a great opportunity for some Japanese statements of optimism (based on running a power line to the reactor and workers returning) AND for action by BoJ towards their economy/currency.

Without anything agressive there, this is just a short-term bounce that calls for shorting at the right point - 1.395 looking to perhaps be that decision point.

The daily is unfolding with a strange candle pattern here - weekly also, although 3 days to go is a lot of time to print the weekly. Lots of volume absorbed yesterday with that mega-wick print - they mean serious bullish business there but today is much harder to read - we need tomorrow's print - who's got their crystal ball handy? This is a 5pm NY close chart. Make of it what you will - my infamous TL(s) are holding, but fundamentals otherwise can swing you anywhere.
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  • #16,586
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:21pm Mar 16, 2011 12:21pm
Quoting Flynchenberg
1.Cause vs. Effect
2.Effort vs. Result
3.Supply vs. Demand

What I see is a very high volume Effort to push the prices higher on H8 two bar reversal pattern, and then no Result: immediate Supply on next bar then.POC taken down. High and Very High volume down bar next ones.
Right now we have a battle of POC at 1.3899.

The question is: to what extent one can blame the situation in Japan for thaht?

Thx,
Seb
The biggest point of confusion for me is that strong looking 2 bar reversal as you said with no follow through... But now looking at what we saw today I see this... The downbar which formed the low of today was on higher volume than the downbar that formed the low yesterday with a higher low (close off it's low) and a narrower spread... again effort vs results.

Remain confused ATM on EU.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,587
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:40pm Mar 16, 2011 12:40pm
Late in the day short set- up with a No Demand at the trigger level. Looks like we are going into the close on the down side. 1254 (ESM) would be the entry level
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #16,588
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:46pm Mar 16, 2011 12:46pm
There is no stopping UJ...

Quoting HiddenGap
Late in the day short set- up with a No Demand at the trigger level. Looks like we are going into the close on the down side. 1254 (ESM) would be the entry level
  • #16,589
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:47pm Mar 16, 2011 12:47pm
I am buying one mini lot of UJ at 79.8 just for fun to show my son one day...."hey son, there were days that we tarded UJ at 79.80...don't believe me ...? here it is..."
  • #16,590
  • Mar 16, 2011 1:07pm Mar 16, 2011 1:07pm
Those who went long on Monday were shaken out yesterday and those who went long yesterday were shaken out today . So it seems anyway.

4H and 1H very beautiful "M" shape. So everybody should be short biased by now. What is the best thing to do now? To go up tomorrow
  • #16,591
  • Mar 16, 2011 1:29pm Mar 16, 2011 1:29pm
Quoting Fusion
I am buying one mini lot of UJ at 79.8 just for fun to show my son one day...."hey son, there were days that we tarded UJ at 79.80...don't believe me ...? here it is..."
Traders are going to test the patience of BOJ to see if they will step in and intervene. Sept of last year we saw similar price action where price continued to creep down almost to say to BOJ "a little more, what you going to do."

I will be looking for a long as well but i'm not ready to pull the trigger yet.
  • #16,592
  • Mar 16, 2011 1:42pm Mar 16, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
Those who went long on Monday were shaken out yesterday and those who went long yesterday were shaken out today . So it seems anyway.

4H and 1H very beautiful "M" shape. So everybody should be short biased by now. What is the best thing to do now? To go up tomorrow
Well we need to turn them M into a W... so up it is.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,593
  • Mar 16, 2011 2:17pm Mar 16, 2011 2:17pm
Holy currency Gods - USDJPY is 200 pips underwater at 5:16pm at 77.55ish. Retraces are 50 pips. Don't even ask about GBPJPY - 124.34ish.

I guess all those sub-80 orders obviously got pulled.

And I though BoJ ran a global operation ...
  • #16,594
  • Mar 16, 2011 2:17pm Mar 16, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting Beljevina
Holy currency Gods - USDJPY is 200 pips underwater at 5:16pm at 77.55ish. Retraces are 50 pips. Don't even ask about GBPJPY - 124.34ish.
230 pips in one 15 min bar...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,595
  • Mar 16, 2011 2:25pm Mar 16, 2011 2:25pm
We're making history ...

600 pips down for GBPJPY to sub-122.

EURO thrashing too ... we're going to hit 1.397/1.4ish in all likelihood.
  • #16,596
  • Mar 16, 2011 2:27pm Mar 16, 2011 2:27pm
OMG what a creazy move on all J-pairs

unbelivable....
  • #16,597
  • Mar 16, 2011 2:33pm Mar 16, 2011 2:33pm
So who was short UJ/Gj then?

Lol, scary stuff.
  • #16,598
  • Mar 16, 2011 2:35pm Mar 16, 2011 2:35pm
Seriously what the fuck has just happened.....???

i can't find any reason for this drop in yen......
  • #16,599
  • Mar 16, 2011 2:36pm Mar 16, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting Tea_trader
Seriously what the fuck has just happened.....???

i can't find any reason for this drop in yen......
news...nothing more
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,600
  • Mar 16, 2011 2:37pm Mar 16, 2011 2:37pm
someone is going to be very upset...
Nihil Sine Deo.
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