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vsa with Malcolm

  • #16,561
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:06pm Mar 16, 2011 12:06pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
We are suffering some "Paralysis by analysis" on this subject which to be honest is not that important.

If the gu and eur are not following the same trend so what! They will always be close since they are a cross with the USd. At the same time they have different banking governing bodies and fundamental news releases that make it a different currency traded in a different country. If you are looking for an indication to go long or short based upon the difference in there movements I would say you are wasting your time. Stick to vsa and let...
Yes, still sticking with VSA.
  • #16,562
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:10pm Mar 16, 2011 12:10pm
There was a good looking test/ns on the 5min chart at 17:00 GMT but it looks as if it may have failed.
  • #16,563
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:17pm Mar 16, 2011 12:17pm
gbp/usd is approaching its recent low 1.5980. former buying zone, IMHO. What do you think? prepare for buying some?
  • #16,564
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:18pm Mar 16, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
There was a good looking test/ns on the 5min chart at 17:00 GMT but it looks as if it may have failed.
maybe failed, but price now going down on lowering volume...
Change is the only constant
  • #16,565
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:23pm Mar 16, 2011 12:23pm
Quoting polomine
gbp/usd is approaching its recent low 1.5980. former buying zone, IMHO. What do you think? prepare for buying some?
A triple bottom might hold, although I'm thinking support/bottom at 1.59514 might be next, given current PA. Super tight stops though.
  • #16,566
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:29pm Mar 16, 2011 12:29pm
EU has still only moved 100pips today... don't know what to think anymore
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,567
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:41pm Mar 16, 2011 12:41pm
Quoting pres78
EU has still only moved 100pips today... don't know what to think anymore
when in doubt, stay out! At least that's what i'm doing...
Change is the only constant
  • #16,568
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:42pm Mar 16, 2011 12:42pm
Quoting tgwhbb
when in doubt, stay out! At least that's what i'm doing...
Me too.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,569
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:43pm Mar 16, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting pres78
EU has still only moved 100pips today... don't know what to think anymore
119.4 ADR down compared to the basically 157.7 up and extreme top close of yesterday.

With you on what to think ... am unfortunately out of my longstanding longs. I really was thinking of dumping out around that last rise to 1.397 given PA, but greed did it's job.

Now, if 1.386/385 don't hold, I will know less. It will be a news trump, and if/when it hits, I still believe we are hundreds of pips away from a bottom. Don't buy until there's 1) a reason to and 2) it's confirmed. Yes, there's a long term reason to buy, but short-term news trumps that - don't catch knives with your account.

On UJ, they've intervented holidays and off-hours before ... still thinking someone/something has to come in ... will probably be forced out of my 79.996 longs because, well, I'm .
  • #16,570
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:53pm Mar 16, 2011 12:53pm
Just had a spring followed by a test in the ES, might get a pop. The trend is down tho.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #16,571
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:55pm Mar 16, 2011 12:55pm
EU. Just look at the daily. All that effort and so far no follow through, no result. And yesterday's hourly timeframes the same thing. Stopping action, a good move up, but failing at the top. Today was pretty simple. A fake move up at London open and down the rest of the day. If there really is not enough interest to the upside, I think tomorrow will prove that.
  • #16,572
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:58pm Mar 16, 2011 12:58pm
Quoting comapip
EU. Just look at the daily. All that effort and so far no follow through, no result. And yesterday's hourly timeframes the same thing. Stopping action, a good move up, but failing at the top. Today was pretty simple. A fake move up at London open and down the rest of the day. If there really is not enough interest to the upside, I think tomorrow will prove that.
there's always 2 sides to a coin though...volume today on EU is quite low for this down move...and the retrace from 1.4 is not as deep as the past...each retrace is more and more shallow...

i'm not in at the moment, so easy to speculate...as bel mentioned, wait for confirmations before going long or short from here.
Change is the only constant
  • #16,573
  • Mar 16, 2011 1:02pm Mar 16, 2011 1:02pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Just had a spring followed by a test in the ES, might get a pop. The trend is down tho.
Test failed (on low volume).
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #16,574
  • Mar 16, 2011 1:04pm Mar 16, 2011 1:04pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Test failed (on low volume).
1250 stops will be tested
  • #16,575
  • Mar 16, 2011 1:08pm Mar 16, 2011 1:08pm
It's unusual to see move this low through the NY & Chicago lunchhour - usually you get drift against the prevailing daily trend. I do not read it as a good sign.

Now that it is post 2-pm, we could see acceleration of moves, and a likely double bottom attempt to 1.385/386. The hourly candles are looking pretty ugly.

Also, Japan and it's officials will be waking up shortly. Not that the BoJ knows what it's doing ...

Wondering if I should buy @ 79.75 ... aww, what the heck.

Shoulda' been looking at USDCAD ...
  • #16,576
  • Mar 16, 2011 1:20pm Mar 16, 2011 1:20pm
Can you say 'through the roof'? Also, like I said - 'parabolic.' It's a keeper here.

Aussie plummetting ... what can one say - it all happened 2pm-2:30pm May 6 too.

1250 on S&P. Dow was 300 down.
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  • #16,577
  • Mar 16, 2011 1:20pm Mar 16, 2011 1:20pm
Look at the 2 red lines pointed out. According to wyckoff, compression of range makes for a big move. And everyone knows triangles are known for fake breakouts.

Also look at the 2 bars pointed out. Very strong formation.

http://i865.photobucket.com/albums/a.../16march2h.jpg

Agree with you guys today has been crazy, I never look at news but with Portugal this morning and Japan market would be crazy. Some serious SM been involved last couple of days.
  • #16,578
  • Mar 16, 2011 1:32pm Mar 16, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting ozzieb88
Highest volume bar for me the last m15 on EU.... lets see what happens. I really suspect a low move down to yesterdays VAL.
good call...blinded i was...rejection at yesterday's VAH did indicate a traversal to VAL...missed that as was too sure of my long

live and learn i guess...
Change is the only constant
  • #16,579
  • Mar 16, 2011 1:39pm Mar 16, 2011 1:39pm
Check those tallest of last 2 green volume bars - they're pretty much the same size.

Let's say SM doesn't have a plan ... they could be driving it up with the first bar/buying, then shorting it/selling on the way down with the second bar. 140 pips each way. Man, to have really deep pockets ... then again, I can do that, with much less funds though

Nice bounce coming in now on EU & GU - about a 40 pips bounce, post 2:30 NY time. Back to 1.39 on EU. Let's see how the hourly bar prints ... still got a few hours before Japan/Aus/NZ wakes up and the news starts to flow ... me thinks Asia will be a volatile session.

UJ going kinda bonkers ... a 50 pip bounce at this time over 30 minutes is a sign of buyers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,580
  • Mar 16, 2011 1:49pm Mar 16, 2011 1:49pm
EU 15min 2 bar bottom reversal... second bar on higher volume... not that it means much right about now
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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