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vsa with Malcolm

  • #16,541
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:23am Mar 16, 2011 11:23am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Just saw this, cheers for the reply!



Cheers for this as well
re pomo...not sure if its only when fed buys treasuries...it could also include sales of same...all i know is that it can result in an increasing in volatility around the time the operations are executed (and there is a defined schedule for that on the pomo web site)
Change is the only constant
  • #16,542
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:27am Mar 16, 2011 11:27am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Okay, i give up, what the hell is POMO!?
The Fed cut a deal with the big boys who buy/bought bonds/treasuries, which return next to nothing but are safe since they're underwritten by the gov't - and cut a deal to buy them back off of them, with a nice wink-wink nudge-nudge to take those proceeds and put them into the equity market, where returns can be much greater, which the Goldman Sachs, Morgans & others desperately need - it's an example of greed working wonders.

Unfortunately, few others have been in on the S&P/DOW equity ride, for obvious reasons, and you have a trend-up on low volume - we know what VSA says happens there eventually.

Official info here: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/po...play/index.cfm
  • #16,543
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:27am Mar 16, 2011 11:27am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Ive got my coffee and watching the war of 2011, aka 80 on uj.
Just got a monthly chart up (without volume unfortunately). I had no idea that Yennie hasn't been this low since 1995.
  • #16,544
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:27am Mar 16, 2011 11:27am
take a look at the marked bars on the 5M EU. first is what looks like a test, however it does not make a new low. the 2nd is far more interesting...compressed bar on increased volume. however my esignal feed show that 2nd bar as lower volume...does that make it a test?

what do your charts show? The bars in question are 16:05 and 16:10 GMT.
Attached Image
Change is the only constant
  • #16,545
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:28am Mar 16, 2011 11:28am
http://treasuryauctionwatch.blogspot...4-4112011.html

This site can be handy and a little easier to read then the Treasuries homesite.
  • #16,546
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:29am Mar 16, 2011 11:29am
Quoting polomine
I mean when I see buy eur and sell gbp signals at the same time, I am hesitated to trading any pair. Yes, I get what you mean.
Hi polomine & juhanimi,

When conflicting signals of EU-Buy and GU-Sell,
some possible options including the ones you mentioned:

- Don't trade as signal are conflicting if you assuming EU and GU correlates.

- Can trade. But look at your current positions.
Don't over expose.
eg. If you have only existing Long-EU, then you may want to consider adding Short-GU.
eg. If you have existing 1 Long-EU and existing 1 Long-GU, don't add to it.

- Still want to trade, but unsure whether to trade E/U or G/U.
Sometimes E/U and G/U goes opposite trend to each other suddenly and may have big pips run.
Then check the chart of EUR/GBP and see this chart may give a better indication on whether to choose E/U or G/U.
This checking EUR/GBP is my preferred option.
  • #16,547
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:31am Mar 16, 2011 11:31am
Quoting tgwhbb
take a look at the marked bars on the 5M EU. first is what looks like a test, however it does not make a new low. the 2nd is far more interesting...compressed bar on increased volume. however my esignal feed show that 2nd bar as lower volume...does that make it a test?

what do your charts show? The bars in question are 16:05 and 16:10 GMT.
Your volume is not the same as mine. I'll post a chart in a min.
  • #16,548
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:33am Mar 16, 2011 11:33am
My Esignal chart shows the same volume, second bar has smaller body.
IBFX (Demo) and DBFX (Demo) show the same as your chart.

Quoting tgwhbb
take a look at the marked bars on the 5M EU. first is what looks like a test, however it does not make a new low. the 2nd is far more interesting...compressed bar on increased volume. however my esignal feed show that 2nd bar as lower volume...does that make it a test?

what do your charts show? The bars in question are 16:05 and 16:10 GMT.
  • #16,549
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:37am Mar 16, 2011 11:37am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Ive got my coffee and watching the war of 2011, aka 80 on uj.
80 should prove to be a tough level...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,550
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:37am Mar 16, 2011 11:37am
Quoting foxybunny
Hi polomine & juhaimini,

When conflicting signals of EU-Buy and GU-Sell,
some possible options including the ones you mentioned:

- Don't trade as signal are conflicting if you assuming EU and GU correlates.

- Can trade. But look at your current positions.
Don't over expose.
eg. If you have only existing Long-EU, then you may want to consider adding Short-GU.
eg. If you have existing 1 Long-EU and existing 1 Long-GU, don't add to it.

- Still want to trade, but unsure whether to trade E/U or G/U.
Sometimes E/U and G/U goes opposite...
We are suffering some "Paralysis by analysis" on this subject which to be honest is not that important.

If the gu and eur are not following the same trend so what! They will always be close since they are a cross with the USd. At the same time they have different banking governing bodies and fundamental news releases that make it a different currency traded in a different country. If you are looking for an indication to go long or short based upon the difference in there movements I would say you are wasting your time. Stick to vsa and let the pairs move where they want to go even if it is against each other.
  • #16,551
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:38am Mar 16, 2011 11:38am
esignal
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Eddie 5min.png Size: 82 KB
  • #16,552
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:39am Mar 16, 2011 11:39am
Quoting KinsaleForex
esignal
Perfect match. Nice low volume test also noted.
  • #16,553
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:41am Mar 16, 2011 11:41am
Quoting pres78
80 should prove to be a tough level...
Minor bounce now, but not what I/many expected ... soo hard to know what the big boy order books say ... 79.75 in April '95 Japan was a very different place, esp. compared to the current crisis situation ... I just don't buy into this eternal yen appreciation. But it's a USD valuation too ... so 79 is there to be broken ...

Ashraf, FWIW. Good to have him on your twitter ... I use the Spaz client (yes, that's it's real name!)
Attached Image
  • #16,554
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:46am Mar 16, 2011 11:46am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Perfect match. Nice low volume test also noted.
So if you were to trade that, where would you put your stop? On the low?
  • #16,555
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:46am Mar 16, 2011 11:46am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Perfect match. Nice low volume test also noted.
the problem is the up move is still on decreasing volume and today's developing value area low has bene rejected (3930 area)... more downside to come???
Change is the only constant
  • #16,556
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:51am Mar 16, 2011 11:51am
Quoting mrWolf
is anyone here trading futures through infinity or some other company,i just wanted to check if they are ok to do business with
Infinity is very good. The AT platform is great (fast) and everybody seems knowledgeable and helpful.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #16,557
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:52am Mar 16, 2011 11:52am
E/U M5, last 2-3 bars, possible "NS".

Long 1.3935.

Perhaps jump the gun a bit earlier as did not wait for bar to finish with up confirmation.
  • #16,558
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:58am Mar 16, 2011 11:58am
Quoting Sonofsin5
We are suffering some "Paralysis by analysis" on this subject which to be honest is not that important.

If the gu and eur are not following the same trend so what! They will always be close since they are a cross with the USd. At the same time they have different banking governing bodies and fundamental news releases that make it a different currency traded in a different country. If you are looking for an indication to go long or short based upon the difference in there movements I would say you are wasting your time. Stick to vsa and let...
Agreed. Whilst I haven't looked at in a while, I think that the Swiss Franc makes a better "sister" market to the EU. When the Franc shows a buy signal you look for shorts in the EU.

But, like Sono said, stick with VSA and let the pairs move where they want to go..
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #16,559
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:00pm Mar 16, 2011 12:00pm
Quoting foxybunny
E/U M5, last 2-3 bars, possible "NS".

Long 1.3935.

Perhaps jump the gun a bit earlier as did not wait for bar to finish with up confirmation.
I don't see ns.
  • #16,560
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:06pm Mar 16, 2011 12:06pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
I don't see ns.
Possible I jump the gun.
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