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vsa with Malcolm

  • #16,501
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:23am Mar 16, 2011 10:23am
Quoting PipPipPip
may you reason please?
5min wide spread down candles closing well off the lows on high volume.
  • #16,502
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:23am Mar 16, 2011 10:23am
Wise words .

EU: We're still bellow yesterday's ATR (True Range) of 157 Pips.

Quoting KinsaleForex
I was just about to say, can we all not just look at the charts instead of the TV/newspaper/internet news feed for a minute
  • #16,503
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:24am Mar 16, 2011 10:24am
I have learned far more about nuclear reactors than I ever cared to in my lifetime.

How often do you hear a politician speak with the words 'catastrophic' ... we have stops for that in spot, don't we ...

This is going to be sad, ugly, depressing and potentially lasting. Will give new definition to risk-off ...


Quoting Sonofsin5
This is classic media manipulation which the crew at Tradeguider talk about all the time. DO no be fooled by this, yes we may drop a little further but there is a massive exchange of holdings from the smart money to the herd going on today.

This shakeout is being caused by a report on the Reactor in Japan.

Its nice to be as knowledgeable as we are here and do not follow the herd. (Credit VSA)
True to an extent, but when the news ends up driving things down hundreds of pips, I don't want to be holding it in drawdown by hundreds of pips ... one should profit from the downmove, easier I supposed if you're not vested in longs and don't have a Uncle Sam broker.
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  • #16,504
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:26am Mar 16, 2011 10:26am
Quoting Sonofsin5
This is classic media manipulation which the crew at Tradeguider talk about all the time. DO no be fooled by this, yes we may drop a little further but there is a massive exchange of holdings from the smart money to the herd going on today.

This shakeout is being caused by a report on the Reactor in Japan.

Its nice to be as knowledgeable as we are here and do not follow the herd. (Credit VSA)
Almost same volume was seen yesterday at the same place. Coincidence?
  • #16,505
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:28am Mar 16, 2011 10:28am
we still need an up bar for SO confirmed. eur/sud m15
  • #16,506
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:32am Mar 16, 2011 10:32am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Almost same volume was seen yesterday at the same place. Coincidence?
Yes it is very similar... see if it was buying like yesterday or absorption to take out 3900...

Next 15 min bar for me was still on good volume but much narrower spread and has same close test of this new trigger at 3922? But no upbar to confirm SO yet... If volume was much lower I would have entered at the break of this last candle as a test but I just don't know... SO needs to be confirmed and then a return to test 3922...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,507
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:32am Mar 16, 2011 10:32am
My last M15 is one, but very slightly, even level.

Quoting polomine
we still need an up bar for SO confirmed. eur/sud m15
  • #16,508
  • Edited 10:54am Mar 16, 2011 10:38am | Edited 10:54am
Don't mean to be an alarmist ... but if you were not trading May 6 (flash crash - 2pm - 2:15pm EST), you should probably not be trading today.

With limited options on deck for the reactor, and perhaps just a matter of time until something really bad happens, this could be big. If it is onwards during today, volatility can be huge given decreasing liquidity.

Euro/greek demos were (supposedly) part of the catalyst May 6 - real, not, or planned - and wealth transfer aside - 1000 pips was the result. You judge what the result may be with a real catastrophe.

For starters, we might see that yen cross reversal - shakeouts don't have to be in one direction, and the yen needs a kick in the side.

Stay safe. When the VIX gets parabolic, the results are not good.

I am out of positions. But monitoring - get daily/weekly charts on your monitors with resistance/support, as well as the VIX.

The key here is ... the big boys and really smart money have their strategies planned ... we just don't know what it is.
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  • #16,509
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:42am Mar 16, 2011 10:42am
Quoting polomine
Hello Sono,

Is it possible you buy eur/usd and sell gbp/usd at the same time? If the vsa set-tup tells you to do that. Just curious about it.

cheers,
polomine
I am not SonOfSin, but this is a good guestion and started to think about that.

So, GU and EU are in positive correlation, that means that they move in same direction almost all the time.
So when we see for example buy for EU-M15 and sell GU-M15, then these pairs are out of balance.
So best thing to do is look trend from for example H1 and if trend is up so we do not sell GU, even if we get signals, we wait till we get buy for GU-M15.
Or something like that.
  • #16,510
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:47am Mar 16, 2011 10:47am
Thanks for your opinion.

For me, I'd like to avoid trading when I see conflict signals. Maybe for him and other vsa masters, it's no problem.

Quoting juhanimi
I am not SonOfSin, but this is a good guestion and started to think about that.

So, GU and EU are in positive correlation, that means that they move in same direction almost all the time.
So when we see for example buy for EU-M15 and sell GU-M15, then these pairs are out of balance.
So best thing to do is look trend from for example H1 and if trend is up so we do not sell GU, even if we get signals, we wait till we get buy for GU-M15.
Or something like that.
  • #16,511
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:48am Mar 16, 2011 10:48am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Another 5min chart from myself, concentrating on the Red trigger line, is this a valid short or not really?
I don't mean to be pushy (well I guess I am) but before this post gets lost, if someone could answer this post i've quoted, i'd appreciate that, i'd like to be told if i'm right or wrong.
  • #16,512
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:54am Mar 16, 2011 10:54am
Quoting KinsaleForex
I don't mean to be pushy (well I guess I am) but before this post gets lost, if someone could answer this post i've quoted, i'd appreciate that, i'd like to be told if i'm right or wrong.
i beleive that was a good trigger line as its based on the UHV up bar closing off the high and confirmed with the next bar down (and on higher volume so better trigger IMO).

EDIT: and if price gets back there i think it will still be a good trigger since that line is also the day's developing POC.
Change is the only constant
  • #16,513
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:55am Mar 16, 2011 10:55am
Quoting polomine
Thanks for your opinion.

For me, I'd like to avoid trading when I see conflict signals. Maybe for him and other vsa masters, it's no problem.
It is not conflicting signal what I was thinking about.
If EU moves up after you get buy signal and trend is in higher timeframe up and sametime you get sell for GU, but do not take that wait for buy for GU 2 and you are trading with correlation trend so to say, and so on, you know.
  • #16,514
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:57am Mar 16, 2011 10:57am
The Federal Reserve has canceled its scheduled POMO for today.

LOL Not sure if that has any effect on currencies, but still interesting.

I still want 1.375 EU this week although EU is bashing lower channel trendline for the third time and so far failing to break through. Third time's the charm?
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  • #16,515
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:59am Mar 16, 2011 10:59am
How do you call the 1550 GMT EU M5 candle/bar?

Thanks.
Ox
  • #16,516
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:00am Mar 16, 2011 11:00am
the hour is up...EU H1 looks like a shakeout...now on the sidelines (previous long at 3906 was stopped out at BE) watching for confirmation...or not.
Change is the only constant
  • #16,517
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:01am Mar 16, 2011 11:01am
Highest volume on H1 since many many days! Do your charts show the same?
  • #16,518
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:02am Mar 16, 2011 11:02am
Quoting Oxford
How do you call the 1550 GMT EU M5 candle/bar?

Thanks.
Ox
i'm not 100% sure what to call it, but its a downbar that doesn't break the previous bar's low, has narrower range, and less volume, i would call that a no selling pressure.
Change is the only constant
  • #16,519
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:03am Mar 16, 2011 11:03am
Guys are you watching UJ?


Quoting tgwhbb
i'm not 100% sure what to call it, but its a downbar that doesn't break the previous bar's low, has narrower range, and less volume, i would call that a no selling pressure.
  • #16,520
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:03am Mar 16, 2011 11:03am
Posting for the Mallerina family album from here on ...

I am seeing huge H1 volume on this last EU dip - that's a good sign. I won't tire you with a H4, but that last dip to 1.385 was massively bought and underlines good support here at 1.39. If 1.385 goes - due to the nuclear plant crisis - the fall will be huge - 1.343/1.345 will be bounce.

Again, the wording out of Japan is incredibly dire - it should not be ignored.

Am watching UJ - apparently 80 is supposed to have massive buys lined up just below it.

We are 10 pips away at time of writing.
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