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vsa with Malcolm

  • #16,421
  • Mar 16, 2011 5:20am Mar 16, 2011 5:20am
Not really liking any of the pair's current PA - looks like a big risk-off and negative sentiment. EU holding up among the best, but not for long if this turns south elsewhere. If downward momentum materializes, a 200 pip ADR or 1.38 would not surprise. UJ is heading towards the 80.5 dumpster and potential bounce area ... or, ... one day, a crash through. Yen strength ... go figure.
  • #16,422
  • Mar 16, 2011 5:35am Mar 16, 2011 5:35am
Ok guys i am long EURUSD

1,3930

SL 25 pips

Bit early but lets see
Work smart not hard
  • #16,423
  • Mar 16, 2011 5:46am Mar 16, 2011 5:46am
Quoting Beljevina
Yen strength ... go figure.
Think about the liquidation of positions that are funded by the yen.
  • #16,424
  • Mar 16, 2011 5:47am Mar 16, 2011 5:47am
MY SL hit - 22 pips.

I think its making its way down to the VPOC 13225
  • #16,425
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:25am Mar 16, 2011 6:25am
H4 TF...

This is my FXCM MT4 demo looks like... Does it show the same in you chart as well???
If the vol indication is true..we are still in the uptrend..?

post ur H4 chart..too

Sonic
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  • #16,426
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:30am Mar 16, 2011 6:30am
Quoting Mr J
Think about the liquidation of positions that are funded by the yen.
Yes, thinking about that too but also on what happens after that.
With the low rates elsewhere Yen loans could have been lowered over the last year, this being a last push. Planning my UJ or EJ longs already.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #16,427
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:32am Mar 16, 2011 6:32am
Quoting sonicdeejay
H4 TF...

This is my FXCM MT4 demo looks like... Does it show the same in you chart as well???
If the vol indication is true..we are still in the uptrend..?

post ur H4 chart..too

Sonic
Yes my chart looks like that too. Very wide bar, ultra high volume but little follow through. That's what I don't like. There was a lot of effort but the result so far is not great.
  • #16,428
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:40am Mar 16, 2011 6:40am
Quoting sonicdeejay
H4 TF...

This is my FXCM MT4 demo looks like... Does it show the same in you chart as well???
If the vol indication is true..we are still in the uptrend..?

post ur H4 chart..too

Sonic
IBFX's demo doesn't. Volume is lower and last 4 candles look absolutely different. IBFX doesn't have any up candle among them.
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  • #16,429
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:58am Mar 16, 2011 6:58am
Still IBFX. Maybe their Australian division has different feeds or something.
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  • #16,430
  • Mar 16, 2011 7:04am Mar 16, 2011 7:04am
Nice test on EU 5min followed by shakeout.
  • #16,431
  • Mar 16, 2011 7:11am Mar 16, 2011 7:11am
Quoting comapip
Still IBFX. Maybe their Australian division has different feeds or something.
That's the same as my IBFX demo feed...
1pipperhour's feed is way off, don't know why.

Probably has something to do with the server used...
I have the "IBFX-MT4-Demo2"... someone talked about having the demo1, but I don't even have that one listed.
  • #16,432
  • Mar 16, 2011 7:16am Mar 16, 2011 7:16am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Nice test on EU 5min followed by shakeout.
and in the right place as well! we may see another test of the low in the next hour - NY open. but i think we've hit today's low around 3930 which is yesterday's POC, london's IB extension low, and tested the close of a UHV upbar from yesterday. and the down move has not been on increasing volume.

This looks like a setup to break above 1.4 IMO - my buy limit at 3934 was triggered just before i woke up.
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Change is the only constant
  • #16,433
  • Mar 16, 2011 7:23am Mar 16, 2011 7:23am
Quoting tgwhbb
and in the right place as well! we may see another test of the low in the next hour - NY open. but i think we've hit today's low around 3930 which is yesterday's POC, london's IB extension low, and tested the close of a UHV upbar from yesterday. and the down move has not been on increasing volume.

This looks like a setup to break above 1.4 IMO - my buy limit at 3934 was triggered just before i woke up.
My trigger line was 3934 and my buy would have been 3941 on the high of the test. Really starting to like the 5min chart!
  • #16,434
  • Mar 16, 2011 7:23am Mar 16, 2011 7:23am
Well done!!

Quoting tgwhbb
and in the right place as well! we may see another test of the low in the next hour - NY open. but i think we've hit today's low around 3930 which is yesterday's POC, london's IB extension low, and tested the close of a UHV upbar from yesterday. and the down move has not been on increasing volume.

This looks like a setup to break above 1.4 IMO - my buy limit at 3934 was triggered just before i woke up.
  • #16,435
  • Mar 16, 2011 7:29am Mar 16, 2011 7:29am
Quoting KinsaleForex
My trigger line was 3934 and my buy would have been 3941 on the high of the test. Really starting to like the 5min chart!
confluence is a beautiful thing isn't it!

EDIT: Liam, if you are just getting used to the 5M charts, some advice that may help. Once you are in a trade, move back to higher TFs until you are back in the area you are looking to exit. I've gotten out early too many times on the 5M due to choppy PA at levels I should not have been watching according to higher TFs. Just my 2c.

to not dilute this amazing thread with non-VSA related info, more reasoning behind my buy limit order can be found in the AMT thread in this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=905
Change is the only constant
  • #16,436
  • Mar 16, 2011 7:33am Mar 16, 2011 7:33am
Quoting tgwhbb
confluence is a beautiful thing isn't it!

EDIT: Liam, if you are just getting used to the 5M charts, some advice that may help....
Thanks for that tip, it's due to the choppiness that i've never ventured into the 5min charts before. To be honest the hidden upthrust type bar two bars after the test probably would've made me close out. Then the following two bars went up on lower volume. My target was 1.3959 for a 1:1 which in the end was hit pretty easily.

Cheers again!
  • #16,437
  • Mar 16, 2011 7:37am Mar 16, 2011 7:37am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Thanks for that tip, it's due to the choppiness that i've never ventured into the 5min charts before. To be honest the hidden upthrust type bar two bars after the test probably would've made me close out. Then the following two bars went up on lower volume. My target was 1.3959 for a 1:1 which in the end was hit pretty easily.

Cheers again!
3965 is the developing POC which is where you would expect a reaction. Given the reaction is at 8:30 AM EST (half way thru NY initial balance), the drop from 3965 is looking like a test IMO. I would not expect it to go much further below 3942 (London initial balance low extension). Plus price has closed on the 30M back inside value just before. A reasonable expectation now is a follow-thru to the developing VAH, currently around 3985
Change is the only constant
  • #16,438
  • Mar 16, 2011 7:43am Mar 16, 2011 7:43am
Quoting tgwhbb
3965 is the developing POC which is where you would expect a reaction. Given the reaction is at 8:30 AM EST (half way thru NY initial balance), the drop from 3965 is looking like a test IMO. I would not expect it to go much further below 3942 (London initial balance low extension). Plus price has closed on the 30M back inside value just before. A reasonable expectation now is a follow-thru to the developing VAH, currently around 3985
I'm not up on the VAH and POC stuff but thanks for the insight. Just got another high vol down bar on the 5min so have a new trigger at 1.3959
  • #16,439
  • Mar 16, 2011 7:45am Mar 16, 2011 7:45am
Quoting tgwhbb
and in the right place as well! we may see another test of the low in the next hour - NY open. but i think we've hit today's low around 3930 which is yesterday's POC, london's IB extension low, and tested the close of a UHV upbar from yesterday. and the down move has not been on increasing volume.

This looks like a setup to break above 1.4 IMO - my buy limit at 3934 was triggered just before i woke up.
Hi,
Can I have this POC indicator too?

Thx,
Seb
  • #16,440
  • Mar 16, 2011 7:49am Mar 16, 2011 7:49am
Quoting KinsaleForex
I'm not up on the VAH and POC stuff but thanks for the insight. Just got another high vol down bar on the 5min so have a new trigger at 1.3959
Liam,

I've marked the trigger on this chart. 2 bars after price touched the trigger and bounced up. How would you interpret that bar? It's not really a test since it doesn't make a low, and has quite a large spread. Not sure what to make of that bar other than it's a down bar on UHV closing off the lows - so SOS IMO, would you agree?
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Change is the only constant
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