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AZB Price Action

  • #121
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:47pm Mar 13, 2011 7:47pm
I found this indicator that will email/text you when a proper retrace in price has occurred, giving you a heads up to look for price action to add a position. I have it set to CCI - period 8, price type - 4, level 1 (+50), level 2 (-50). In an uptrend, look for indicator value to fall below -50. This will send you a text. A lot of times when the value then recrosses above the -50 line, that's a good candle to add a new position. You can change the levels to suit. I would only have a -50 level on my chart during up trends and a +50 level for down trends. This will give you the appropriate alert that a retrace has occurred. You can minimize the indicator at the bottom of your chart so it doesn't clutter it up. So this indicator along with those I listed in post #88 may be useful.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/mq4.gif cci_color_susu.mq4
  • #122
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:57pm Mar 13, 2011 7:57pm
Here's the indi. on a chart.
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  • #123
  • Mar 14, 2011 11:02am Mar 14, 2011 11:02am
1HR (yellow) and 4HR ( blue) resistance showing so I wouldn't add to positions here. Other opinions welcome. Also the CCI indicator didn't show much of a pull back before this move. Will wait for resistance to be broken and see what divergence we have at that point.
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  • #124
  • Mar 15, 2011 5:19am Mar 15, 2011 5:19am
I've been busy lately so I couldn't post here. Market is wild today, also waiting for TIC purchase and FOMC announcement today. It could be quite volatile market in next hours.

Summary of my last week:

buy 1= 118
buy 2 = 40
buy 3 = -32
buy 4 = -30

.. right now waiting for a proper PA to go short with proper MM.
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Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #125
  • Mar 15, 2011 6:01am Mar 15, 2011 6:01am
By the way I've coded a small risk calculator which is a very handy tool to calculate your risk/reward ratio for a position.

you can change the values in fields "risk (%)" and "stop loss" by using keyboard arrow keys. As soon as a fields data is changed, the program calculates the final result (resulting position size) instantaneously.
Attached Image
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #126
  • Mar 15, 2011 6:10am Mar 15, 2011 6:10am
... I forgot the executable program.

This is the download link. The forum didn't allow me to attach the .rar file so I've uploaded it to rapidshare.com

http://rapidshare.com/files/45264094...Calculator.rar

Cheers
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #127
  • Mar 15, 2011 6:27am Mar 15, 2011 6:27am
I've prepared a description for the fields of this program. I hope it is useful.

I'll appreciate any suggestions or recommendation to improve it.
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Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #128
  • Mar 15, 2011 6:36am Mar 15, 2011 6:36am
Quoting arezab
I've been busy lately so I couldn't post here. Market is wild today, also waiting for TIC purchase and FOMC announcement today. It could be quite volatile market in next hours.

Summary of my last week:

buy 1= 118
buy 2 = 40
buy 3 = -32
buy 4 = -30

.. right now waiting for a proper PA to go short with proper MM.
ARZ,

Love the trade summaries. Keep'm coming. And thanks for the handy dandy risk calculator. I made same trades as you (#'s 1 and 2) but hung on to them too long after seeing divergence.
  • #129
  • Mar 15, 2011 6:56am Mar 15, 2011 6:56am
Quoting Toothman
ARZ,

Love the trade summaries. Keep'm coming. And thanks for the handy dandy risk calculator. I made same trades as you (#'s 1 and 2) but hung on to them too long after seeing divergence.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #130
  • Mar 15, 2011 9:20pm Mar 15, 2011 9:20pm
ARZ,
Looking back at charts, have you noticed that when price closes past the MA for a good first trade entry, if you trade the next one or two bullish /bearish candle closes they have a fair chance of staying in profit. I'm saying you take the next bullish candle after your first buy or the next bearish candle after your first sell. No waiting for a retrace. Don't know whether you'd come out farther ahead doing this but I'm thinking the Risk/Reward would be worth it. Instead of having one trade working for you at the beginning of the move, you have two or three.
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  • #131
  • Mar 15, 2011 10:08pm Mar 15, 2011 10:08pm
Hi Arezab,

for the buy no. 2 position. do you put the stop loss just below the candle ?

Thanks,


Quoting arezab
I've been busy lately so I couldn't post here. Market is wild today, also waiting for TIC purchase and FOMC announcement today. It could be quite volatile market in next hours.

Summary of my last week:

buy 1= 118
buy 2 = 40
buy 3 = -32
buy 4 = -30

.. right now waiting for a proper PA to go short with proper MM.
  • #132
  • Mar 15, 2011 11:32pm Mar 15, 2011 11:32pm
Quoting Toothman
ARZ,

... come out farther ahead doing this but I'm thinking the Risk/Reward would be worth it. Instead of having one trade working for you at the beginning of the move, you have two or three.
I've done that and most of the times I've seen bad results ... It's not logical to enter long just because a candle closed bullish ... EMA 70 doesn't do anything special here so that we can define a rule of first entry or second, It acts just as a guide to find market direction. If you look at the chart you can find many occasions that EMA candle break immediately returned back and your second and third positions get stopped out. I just enter at significant PA patterns so that I can set proper SL and keep the rules of my MM.

BTW I don't see any reason to agitate things and being greedy to enter at every candle to get more profit. This is "greed" and I've been there. I didn't see good result at all. My advice: try to stay away from greed.

Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #133
  • Mar 15, 2011 11:32pm Mar 15, 2011 11:32pm
Quoting pipfirst
Hi Arezab,

for the buy no. 2 position. do you put the stop loss just below the candle ?

Thanks,
Yes of course. That is one of the rules.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #134
  • Edited 7:06am Mar 16, 2011 6:49am | Edited 7:06am
Quoting arezab
I've done that and most of the times I've seen bad results ... It's not logical to enter long just because a candle closed bullish ... EMA 70 doesn't do anything special here so that we can define a rule of first entry or second, It acts just as a guide to find market direction. If you look at the chart you can find many occasions that EMA candle break immediately returned back and your second and third positions get stopped out. I just enter at significant PA patterns so that I can set proper SL and keep the rules of my MM.

BTW I don't see any...
ARZ,
I appreciate the advice on greed and I totally agree with you on that point. But I was coming at it from the angle of being able to get out of 2-3 positions earlier ( at the first wiff of divergence or a reversal pattern) and still arrive at an equal amount of profit.You'd have to weigh that against possibly taking yourself out of a long run too early of course but you could reenter with the same strategy on a retrace. Not trying to alter your strategy, just throwing out a thought I had. Looks like you're a step ahead of me since you've tried this with poor results. I'm still wondering if in the long run over several months, you may come up with more profit. Only a long back test would tell.
  • #135
  • Mar 16, 2011 8:15am Mar 16, 2011 8:15am
Quoting Toothman
ARZ,
I appreciate the advice on greed and I totally agree with you on that point. But I was coming at it from the angle of being able to get out of 2-3 positions earlier ( at the first wiff of divergence or a reversal pattern) and still arrive at an equal amount of profit.You'd have to weigh that against possibly taking yourself out of a long run too early of course but you could reenter with the same strategy on a retrace. Not trying to alter your strategy, just throwing out a thought I had. Looks like you're a step ahead of me since you've tried...
That is correct mate. Theoretically I agree with you to close and secure a nice profit before trying to reenter. We can take the profit at highest point and let the market exhaust and completes it's retraces, whipsaws or whatever it wants to do and then reenter at a better price, although market may run further and we may miss some points but that is true. We can reenter at a better price (at retraces) again. The whole point is valid and I've done that already. This method may give you more profit in short run but there are some times market starts to move and trend for a longer time, for a long period which nobody imagined it could trend to that levels. In these kind of movements, if you can convince yourself to keep the positions open, the profit will be much more than when closed and reentered again at retrace because 1st:
- you will lose some points in the middle when you are waiting for a retrace to mature and proper PA appears (that is inevitable) but if you keep them open you will catch the whole move specially for your first entries (ex. my first chart when I started the thread).

2nd, if you get used to close the positions early this grows the habit to worry about positions and causes you to close most of your positions early i.e when stoch reaches the OB or OS area or you see a doji, engulfing or something like that because you think market is going to reverse now ... (there might be some situations that you close them right at the pick point and secure the best possible profit in that particular move and right from there, market reverses (or retraces) but there will be few successful ones in long term because of psychological fears, worries, haste and factors like that).

The main point of trying to be patient is to be able (psychologically) to stand the market whipsaws and false retraces (what I call false retrace: I mean not every retrace gets back to %50 or %61.8 fib levels. There are many of them that don't even pass %23.8 .. so they are not worthy to close a position which is already in good profit and reenter at retrace because there is a high probability that market surges so quickly after a long and shallow consolidation that you can't find a good point to reenter .. so you'll miss the biggest part of the move very easily why? because you were thinking about and waiting for a decent retrace to reenter [which never happened]).

I think both methods are correct and both of them ,more or less give profit .. it depends on nature and habits of a trader and how much patience they can have to deal with this market in general.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #136
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:56am Mar 16, 2011 11:56am
Quoting arezab
That is correct mate. Theoretically I agree with you to close and secure a nice profit before trying to reenter. We can take the profit at highest point and let the market exhaust and completes it's retraces, whipsaws or whatever it wants to do and then reenter at a better price, although market may run further and we may miss some points but that is true. We can reenter at a better price (at retraces) again. The whole point is valid and I've done that already. This method may give you more profit in short run but there are some times market starts...
Thanks ARZ,
Some very good points to chew on. I'm very excited with your strategy as you can probably tell. I plan to trade it live when I feel more confident with it. I've been going back more than a year on 1HR charts advancing them 1 candle at a time and paper trading as I go. The recaps of your trades at the end of the sequence are very helpful. thanks again
  • #137
  • Mar 16, 2011 3:07pm Mar 16, 2011 3:07pm
Congrats on a very nice thread!
I trade candles off the daily, but am intrested in utilising some of your concepts, i like the way you keep things simple.
Looking forward to seeing more, and contributing when i can.

regards
  • #138
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:59am Mar 17, 2011 12:59am
Quoting Toothman
Thanks ARZ,
Some very good points to chew on. I'm very excited with your strategy as you can probably tell. I plan to trade it live when I feel more confident with it. I've been going back more than a year on 1HR charts advancing them 1 candle at a time and paper trading as I go. The recaps of your trades at the end of the sequence are very helpful. thanks again
I'll be glad to see you sending the weekly summary to show how did you do it in general.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #139
  • Mar 17, 2011 1:00am Mar 17, 2011 1:00am
Quoting jazzman
Congrats on a very nice thread!
I trade candles off the daily, but am intrested in utilising some of your concepts, i like the way you keep things simple.
Looking forward to seeing more, and contributing when i can.

regards
Thanks for compliments mate. Your contribution is surely welcomed
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #140
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:48pm Mar 17, 2011 7:48pm
Hi Arezab,

Do you try this system in 15 minute chart ?


Thanks,
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