vsa with Malcolm

Another q, if EU was to retrace back to the area I have the trigger number (1.3949) without any more high volume down/up bars would this trigger still be relevant?

Edit - Or has the newer trigger at 1.3987 already voided the previous one?

Pres78, I'll never again read your posts LOL. Thank you anyway, I appreciate your comments and contribution.

Thank you Intel and HG for clarification!

Mal throwing me out?
Seriously, I think my (or others) non-VSA comments would polute this thread which would be ashame. I've seen too many good threads degrading, just keep it the way it is.
Never kill a working formula

**insert Tom Williams quote about mathematical formulas here**

LOL, he's a pussy cat really.

Hi guys...I do not know a whole lot about VSA but I just silently hang, taking in the info. I do appreciate the order in this thread. We can actually learn something here. I dont have to scroll thru 25 posts just to get an update on thoughts. Kudos to Malc I hope this thread remains the way it is.

Edit: When I am not in trading mode, I swing by the EU saloon for a little entertainment.lol

Welcome, on Mals behalf. I look forward to reading your opinions.

Evening folks, hope all are well. Not been very active today because it was really busy at work and I guess tomorrow will be as well, because I've got the rest of the week off to try and beat Malc in his 3 wheeler hot rod

I've been comparing spot and futures, and I'm interested in comments, particularly from the worldly wise

I notice the futures didn't hit 1.4 and in fact showed no demand at 1.3980 - is this a sign that the pros aren't interested in the upside, in fact, does this then fall into Malc's monday theory?

It seems to contradict the bullish behaviour I've highlighted on the chart, but please feel free to tell me if I've got something completely wrong.

One more comment - I was surprised the test back down below 1.39 wasn't re-tested - it seemed far too high volume for an immediate upwards reaction. Does that mean the SM are particularly bullish, or am I mis-reading something?

the difference is just the cost of carry. Don't look too much into it.

I'm not sure what your time frames are but the Daily Eur chart really tells the picture. The drop to 3910 was bought hard and now we are looking at busting through .4000

There has been accumulation for the last two days between 3910 and .4000
Large money looks to have been drying up supply in this area and there are now large stops accumulating above 4025 to 4050. I would not be shorting this and think a dip would be a great chance at a long.

Today i did not took any trade

I was somehow in bearsh mood all day coos i was secure that we will go down to test 1.3850 or 1.3825 area but that never happend

For tomorrow i will go in an long trade after i see some reaction in 1.3950 area but for an easy long i would like an test of 1.3900 area

If we brake throu 1.3950 and than we have some no demands or uptrust i will go with small short scalp till 1.3910

If we brake below 1.3900 and than an up move in that or an uptrust would give me more clear bearish picture for up comeing days

Textbook VSA trade or what

Though it is a bit late to ride the Long train, thought I'd make my first trade of the day to play in the intraday.
Although 1.40002 seemed to be broken on the 5m, very little background on the hourly/4hourly, but seeing so many attempts up, and less volume coming down, I'd take a poke at some pips today. Moved order to 1.3938. SL 1.3920. I waited for the last hour candle to close above the last low volume low?, and above the latest spike on the hourly on the 3rd high volume high bar?. I guess there was NS or ND? Holding until 1.4031 or if next attempt to 1.40002 is weak, I will readjust according to my units.

EDIT:
I guess I wake up on a nap to find out the market was total against me. I'll sit on my hands till lo. bleb.

My view is that we are in a wave 2 down & will culminate at the 137 area & from there I see big up move of 500 pips or more.

daily gu seem forming round top, i short it, but the hammer make me uncomfortable

hammer was followed by equal volume candle that did not break the previous high = somewhat weak

am i wrong or does your HMA show uptrends in red and downtrends in green?

It's Hammer Time!!

http://darthmojo.files.wordpress.com.../mc-hammer.jpg

Sonic

Since the ES is currently tanking, I will answer a question from a PM with the ES as an example. This was from the day session.
First, the trigger number/level concept comes from Gavin Holmes. The idea is not specifically mentioned in MTM or Undeclared, but it is a logical extension of what comes with some VSA understanding. Gavin's book should be out in a couple of weeks and I hope that will answer a lot of questions. Up until recently, Gavin did not share anything about Trigger Levels outside of the VSA club, so those not in the club were left to fend for themselves on the concept. I am not a member of the club so I can not claim any sort of mastery on the concept. Nevertheless, here are some thoughts.

Again, the first part involved in using the Trigger Levels is not all that new or unique. Many traders have observed that a price bar with a lot of volume seems to be resistance/support going forward. AMT pay particular attention to the price level with the most volume (POCv).

So the first thing to do is identify an Very High to Ultra High Volume bar.

Let's take a look at the chart below.

From my perspective, the first bar marked "Supply" was a Trigger bar once it formed. Three intervals later, however, an even greater Ultra High Volume bar was created. This becomes the new Trigger Level. We need to examine this bar for a second as the bar itself will dictate how we approach the Trigger Level.

This bar is an UP bar (close greater than the previous bar) with its close off the high. So we have an up bar on Ultra High Volume closing off its high with the next bar down. VSA tells us that there must be some selling in this bar. So let's cut to the chase for a minute and then circle back. IF this bar contains hidden selling, then we would expect a certain type of reaction when price gets back to this level. In other words, we have an idea of what we are looking for. We are looking for some sign that there was indeed selling on this bar.

Okay, so let's circle back for a minute. After we have identified the Trigger bar, we are looking for something that confirms (or denies) our assumption. For this post we will only be talking about a form of confirmation. You can figure out the opposite.

Since there is a such thing as momentum, we are not surprised to see price continue to move up after the Selling Climax (Trigger bar). What we want to see, is price fall down below the Trigger Level (C) and then we want to see signs of weakness as price attempts to move back into the area of the Trigger Level (C).
Back to the chart.

Price moves up and then falls down. On its attempt to move up, we see an up bar that’s high is equal to the close of our Trigger bar, but closes of the high and has volume less than the previous two bars. This is No Demand.

Okay, we assume that the BBs were selling on the trigger bar. Now we see as price moves back into that area from below, they are withdrawing their interest in the market. Bam. They are sending a signal to anyone who can read a chart; "We are not interested in higher prices". Moreover, we came in hard on a buying climax, now we are "defending" that level. In this case, defending takes the form of no activity. But if you saw a squat here or an Up thrust the message would be the same-the path of least resistance is down.

This "pattern" is shown on the right side of the chart.

There are a few more patterns and I hope others will share examples as the see them. However, remember the patterns are simply manifistations of the underlying market dynamics. Learn that and you will not be beholden to patterns. Intel's last post with the chart has some wonderfull understanings of the "what lies underneath".

FF is having problems so I am going to stop this post now. I may revisit later.

I'm quite bearish EU short term to be honest. We had a slow crawl up yesterday but looking at the daily bar it doesn't really look bullish. Although I'm keeping in mind that it's FOMC day and maybe that's why there's no impulsive price action yet. Also a down move during asia which usually means it will be retraced during other sessions. And it ended with a clear stopping attempt.

But overall I'm expecting a range between 1.4 and 1.375 before anything else happens. Now time to wait and let it all play out.

[quote=This "pattern" is shown on the right side of the chart.

There are a few more patterns and I hope others will share examples as the see them. However, remember the patterns are simply manifistations of the underlying market dynamics. Learn that and you will not be beholden to patterns. Intel's last post with the chart has some wonderfull understanings of the "what lies underneath".

FF is having problems so I am going to stop this post now. I may revisit later.[/quote]

Thank You very much for that, always keen to learn something new
Seb