My Trading Journey thus Far

Both trades were filled during Friday's amazing price action. A horrific Earthquake to Japan caused Risk off at first and then a Tsunami Rally ??
Doesn't make sense....
My thinking was all retailers jumped in short and the few big players involved just set out to take their money. Direction was irrelevant perhaps?

Anyway Test1 win +92 pips
Test2 win +106 pips.

The setups I liked on Friday are now invalidated. The USDCAD daily close looks like more downside to come. The NZDCAD buy has taken off and to jump on now would present a worse then 1:1 RR so it won't be taken.

It's difficult to make a decision after a natural disaster like that. Even though I'm trading TA, I still read and see global events take place which impairs judgement rightly or wrongly. We are humans after all.

I do have a trade setup that I'll take on Monday morning which I'll discuss later.

My trade setup which was to be a NZDCHF buy has been invalidated. On the open the pair gapped down some 60 pips. My trading rules won't allow for a buy on a gap down.

My rules also stipulate not to watch intra day price action as it emotionally leads me into making bad decisions.
So I'll wait for the Monday price action to sort itself out and it may perhaps leave clues for direction over the rest of the week.

Tuesday morning 11.00am melb time. A flick through the charts reveals that almost all pairs reversed their Friday closing position. Also some big pullbacks in the Yen pairs. The GBP is showing strength against all pairs.

" Treading where the Majority Fear " is a line that will summarize my trading style. I hope to be able to buy red candles and sell green candles one day as this is where the best RR is to be had but for now my trading plan calls for a buy on green and sell on red thus confirming bottoms and tops.

TEST3: BUY GBPCHF: 1.4957 ( market price). SL 1.4840 TP 1.5090.

This pair has put in a double bottom on the daily with RSI divergence. A strong 61.8 fib level at 1.4890 is offering good support with multiple retests. An inside candle is the trigger into the trade with the 2009 weekly low resistance line being the Target. RR is a little better then 1:1.
Chart below:

TEST3 Failed. LOSS -117 pips

I have decided to change my trading plan a little by deleting the must buy on green and sell on red clause. All other conditions must be met and my CTS score needs to give a valid trading opportunity. As I said last post " Tread where the Majority Fear" will be my moto.

This method looks riskier but I believe probability to be just as good if not better if you cherry pick carefully. I rolled out of bed late and took a quick look at the charts before needing to leave the house. I got 3 charts in and this stood out like an awesome counter trend play so I took it quickly and thought I'll rate it on return.
TEST4

BUY AUDJPY @ market 79.94 SL 79.15 TP 80.97

Slightly better then 1:1 RR.
Analysis: RSI oversold, Major structure Support level(purple line).
50% fib level of daily impulse leg and also 50% level of weekly impulse leg gives HTF confirmation. You also have a valid trend line support too.
Basically a good probability short term reversal or counter trend punch.
Chart below:

Test4 failed -79 pips. These markets are pretty crazy at the moment and probably best to stay out. But this is my strategy testing moment so a crazy market is good for the experiment and I'm only using 1 nano lot so losses are miniscule.

Also noticed data is up the creek. This is one reason I'm very skeptical of Forex and would much rather trade at an exchange that is controlled then this wild uncontrolled market. An example I'm buying AUDCHF today on the counter trend. Ninja shows a end of day low of 8863 which is a nice support zone however my trading platform IBFX shows a low of 8686 which is a crazy 200 pip discrepancy and throws my chart analysis to the proverbial shit creek. Back later.......

OK I see whats going on, Ninja end of day finishes at 9.00am melb time. Usually markets go to sleep at this time for a few hours till Japan opens up but not today. AUDJPY dropped 400 pips in the following hour along with a few other pairs so that makes the data look skewed when it's not just the crazy markets at work.

A couple of trades I put on this morning.
Both setups are excellent and within my trading plan.
Charts with stops and Tp below:
TEST5 EURGBP SELL. TEST 7 EURAUD SELL.
TEST6: CADCHF BUY, 9150 entry 8965stop 9335TGT. ( my broker doesnt support this pair but chart pattern is a valid trade.

All my above trades are doing ok. EUR/AUD has hit TP1.

I'm taking a new trade today. Test8. GBP/CAD sell.

Price is up in the resistance zone at a 707 fib a nice sell setup with RSI overbought with divergence. You could also call this a triple top high.

Entry 1.6064 SL 1.6185 TGT 1.5910 RR>1:1

Anybody here trade while taking care of a baby? Very challenging...
It's taken me over 3 hours just to browse through the daily charts....

OK update:

Test5 still going. I actually made an error with this trade. I should have taken partial profit yesterday but somehow didn't. Stop moved to BE

Test6 still going. No change

Test7: What a great trade. Win +451 pips
Test8: Just missed TGT by 4 pips so closed out trade within my rules. Win +121 pips.

I have taken a new trade show next post.

Test9: BUY USDSGD : entry 1.2635 stop 1.2583 TGT 1.2760. RR>2:1

Note: Success against these heavily trending pairs is not very good but this one is at a stage with great ratio support. Looks a short term bottom on many scales. Chart below.

TGIF UPDATES:

TEST 5: EURGBP sell ended as a scratch trade. Had I followed my rules and not made a mistake this trade would have netted a 60pip profit. Instead price went parabolic the other way and hit my stop at BE for 0 pips minus roll commissions.

TEST 6: CADCHF BUY, terminated early as per rules. Price came within 7 pips of TP. WIN +161 pips.

TEST 9: USDSGD buy: This trade is barely still alive and traveling in the wrong direction. I'm now looking for a graceful exit at my entry price and my stop has been moved up to a pip below the low of daily closed candle thus my risk has been reduced by 13pips.

TEST trades were really on fire this week with 734 pips profit.
Good work son

Next update will be after my weekend analysis CiAO

Monday Morning: TEST9 USDSGD buy was stopped out at a -39pips LOSS.

Have a feeling it will probably rally now but I'm not going to chase trades.

I have a new setup for this week.

TEST10 AUDUSD SELL. Posted a new high Friday but did not break above, close above the previous daily high. Is close to weekly ratio resistance and at a top of an ascending channel. It gapped down on the open. Unfortunately I missed the price I wanted to enter and so had to enter later and adjust stops and tgts. Entry 1.0234 Stop 1.0354 TGT 1.0110 RR 1:1

2nd pending limit order waiting at 1.0253 this order is only valid till tomorrow morning. Stop and TGT is 100 pips on either side. chart below.

Update: TEST10 is traveling in the wrong direction. Price has just made a new high and it looks like the trade is not going to work out. It's now posted 8 consecutive green Daily candles and is still overbought so a pull back is still a high probability.
No adjustment to stops and targets:
No new trades:

TEST10 about 10 pips away from Failure. AUDUSD has posted 9 consecutive daily gains. Volatility has dropped right away. You can see that the selling pressure is really mounting as it grinds slowly higher. The pair will now surely keep climbing until all the retailers stop shorting the pair and then a big fall is imminent, my timing and strategy got it wrong as it usually does with the AUD. Not a pair to mess around with on the counter trend from a technical pov.

Friday and end of Month.

Test 10 Loss -220 pips.

March Results 10 trades 5 wins 4 loss 1 draw. Pips+ 842, pips- 455 Net +387.

Ciao

Monday Morning. Well analyzing the charts all weekend all one can see is some massive rally's well under way. This makes things very hard for a Contrarian and counter trend trader like myself.

When will they end ? When is the pullback going to come ?
I think if you wait for it to come then you have missed it when it arrives.

None the less I have taken 3 very aggressive entries. All with good RR. All look highly unlikely but the market is always full of surprises so you never know. All 3 are low scoring on my ratings scale but still qualify as trade setups.
Test 11 GBPJPY SELL Entry 1.3572 Stop 1.3638 TP 1.3265

Test 12 CADJPY SELL Entry 87.39 stop 88.42 TP 85.51

Test 13 NZDUSD SELL Entry 7681 stop 7763 TP 7470

Charts below:

Tuesday morning: Update, rally's have stalled overnight. All 3 positions are open no changes to the orders.

Wed morning update: Test11 failed Loss 66 pips. Test12 failed Loss 103pips.

Test 13. Shutdown this morning at BE. ( A draw )

Note: Test 13 shut down against my rules, but a higher high and higher close is a ominous warning of things to come. I need some more rules.

Test 14: AUDNZD BUY.

Aggressive entry: Buy on limit @ 1.3370 Stop 1.3280 TGT 1.3495.

Chart below:

Test 14: Price missed my entry by 1 pip last night. I will leave the order open for today in the anticipation that the market may come back down and trigger the order.

Test 15: This was taken yesterday but not recorded.
It is more of a trend continuation play then a counter trend, but entry was still against the immediate price direction. IF ECB lifts rates today this could go a while. The charts support the notion.

EURCAD buy: Entry 1.3725 Stop 1.3580 TP 1.4169.

Chart below:

Friday update: Test 14 Completed: A win with a twist. + 125 pips.

This is where the market can really play with your emotions. This is also where back testing and paper trading also fail !!
Bad fills.... For my purposes of validating a strategy and methadology in real time I'll chalk this up as rightfull win but in the realworld my order didn't get filled even though price punched through it by a good 6 or 7 pips hmmmm.
meta trader chart below:


Test 15: EurCad just came right back down. It now looks more bearish then bullish. However structure was not broken it closed right on the 1.3710 support line. That is 7 daily candles in a consolidating zone, which way will it break? Who knows? The order will be left as is for the duration of today and the weekend. No new positions....

Have a nice weekend all