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  • #661
  • Mar 13, 2011 2:11pm Mar 13, 2011 2:11pm
Thanks Unamed I'll get right on it cheers for all the help.
  • #662
  • Mar 13, 2011 2:19pm Mar 13, 2011 2:19pm
What's happened to DS's blog site ?
He was looking for the card so high and wild hed never need to deal another
  • #663
  • Mar 13, 2011 2:25pm Mar 13, 2011 2:25pm
Quoting dr_who
What's happened to DS's blog site ?
Looks like the domain expired.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #664
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:19pm Mar 13, 2011 5:19pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Looks like the domain expired.
Yeah it went and snuck up on me. Should be all fixed now.
  • #665
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:22pm Mar 13, 2011 6:22pm
Quoting Darkstar
Yeah it went and snuck up on me. Should be all fixed now.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #666
  • Mar 14, 2011 12:31am Mar 14, 2011 12:31am
I thought Boj will intervene but didnt thinnk it will be that quick. Last time their intervention has been faded on UJ and this time they did it in the middle of the earthquake frenzy.
  • #667
  • Mar 14, 2011 12:57am Mar 14, 2011 12:57am
Quoting Greenhaze
I thought Boj will intervene but didnt thinnk it will be that quick. Last time their intervention has been faded on UJ and this time they did it in the middle of the earthquake frenzy.
when did they intervene?
  • #668
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:09am Mar 14, 2011 1:09am
Quoting Monroe
when did they intervene?
Just at the market open.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopStories

I believe they still have some amunition and it wont be this just one time in case of further selloff of JPY pairs. 2c.
  • #669
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:28am Mar 14, 2011 1:28am
Quoting Greenhaze
Just at the market open.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopStories

I believe they still have some amunition and it wont be this just one time in case of further selloff of JPY pairs. 2c.
I realize that it may be a credible source of information and whatnot, but I tend to disagree. I believe that the BoJ has yet to intervene in the currency markets, but perhaps are in the process of intervening in the money markets. I seem to think it was large flows in an illiquid market, followed by a movement back up through the region void of open interest.

Trust me when BoJ intervenes in the currency market, you'll definitely know.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #670
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:51am Mar 14, 2011 1:51am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I realize that it may be a credible source of information and whatnot, but I tend to disagree. I believe that the BoJ has yet to intervene in the currency markets, but perhaps are in the process of intervening in the money markets. I seem to think it was large flows in an illiquid market, followed by a movement back up through the region void of open interest.

Trust me when BoJ intervenes in the currency market, you'll definitely know.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
Honestly i dont see a point in being suspicious about it. Boj never hide the fact that it has intervened in the market and in case of today intervention i believe it might be some kind of liquidity test before any bigger action.
  • #671
  • Edited 2:11am Mar 14, 2011 1:52am | Edited 2:11am
I haven't been able to post much recently due to a flurry of mid-term examinations, but I have a short break in between, and thought that since I am currently unable to sleep, should take the opportunity to pen down some thoughts I had regarding some mental excursions my subconscious has been on lately.

The epicentre of my thoughts, is the EUR/USD. Recently, we have seen the ECB hinting almost unequivocally at the prospect of an interest rate hike of at least 25 basis points as early as the next meeting. Such a hike would inevitably favour long orders into the EUR/USD pair, as investors move assets around to take advantage of the higher yield.

In light of this however, we see that the market has recently been falling, as it seems to have shifted its concerns to the sovereign debt situation and the recent downgrading of some member states of the EuroZone.

I am positing that the reason the market seems to have 'forgotten' about the impending ECB interest rate hike, is because of the presence of short term participants of the market, who trade on a constrained time, and thus would be trading out of necessity. In order to facilitate trade, forces would be exerted on price, such that the dominant market theme is more-or-less neutralized.

From my recent readings, it appears that the longer term participants have the benefit of choosing to enter the market at prices they deem favourable to them - mispricings - which would have been created by the actions of the short term participants' fixation with the current dominant market theme (sovereign debt) driving prices to levels deemed excessively above or below value.

I know this may be after the fact, but it seems to me that the move below the level of March 3, when the possibility of a hike was hinted, would present a prime opportunity to be on the look out for the entrance of longer term participants into the market, desiring to get in on the action at a favourable price.

I just saw this as a capitalizable opportunity, and I wanted to know if you guys had any thoughts or criticisms you wanted to share about this.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #672
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:00am Mar 14, 2011 2:00am
Quoting Greenhaze
Honestly i dont see a point in being suspicious about it. Boj never hide the fact that it has intervened in the market and in case of today intervention i believe it might be some kind of liquidity test before any bigger action.
They didn't intervene in the spot FX market as far as I know. I hear talk about adding liquidity and asset programs.
  • #673
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:03am Mar 14, 2011 2:03am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I haven't been able to post much recently due to a flurry of mid-term examinations, but I have a short break in between, and thought that since I am currently unable to sleep, should take the opportunity to pen down some thoughts I had regarding some mental excursions my subconscious has been on lately.

The epicentre of my thoughts, is the EUR/USD. Recently, we have seen the ECB hinting almost unequivocally at the prospect of an interest rate hike of at least 25 basis points as early as the next meeting. Such a hike would inevitably favour long...
Good analysis

Would you consider GU being good oportunity for long now?
  • #674
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:03am Mar 14, 2011 2:03am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I haven't been able to post much recently due to a flurry of mid-term examinations, but I have a short break in between, and thought that since I am currently unable to sleep, should take the opportunity to pen down some thoughts I had regarding some mental excursions my subconscious has been on lately.

The epicentre of my thoughts, is the EUR/USD. Recently, we have seen the ECB hinting almost unequivocally at the prospect of an interest rate hike of at least 25 basis points as early as the next meeting. Such a hike would inevitably favour long...
Plus the surprise agreement on the size of EFSF over the weekend to cool the debt crisis in the short term.
  • #675
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:08am Mar 14, 2011 2:08am
Quoting Greenhaze
Good analysis

Would you consider GU being good oportunity for long now?
Unfortunately I haven't been keeping abreast with good old Cable I'll try to get abreast with current events as soon as possible though.

@Monroe
Quote
Plus the surprise agreement on the size of EFSF over the weekend to cool the debt crisis in the short term.
It irks me that I was too tied up to pay attention to any of that this week! But who knows..maybe it'll drop back down again for me to snag it up if I perform lucky dances.
  • #676
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:09am Mar 14, 2011 2:09am
Quoting Greenhaze
Just at the market open.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopStories

I believe they still have some amunition and it wont be this just one time in case of further selloff of JPY pairs. 2c.
Those funds were injected into money market not directly into Ccy's. Yeah they had an effect but not directly like an intervention (Japanese QE). IMO

also whenever BOJ wants to intervene they will always start talking about it days before so they could take yen down as much they could by verbal intervention before they put some real bucks into it.
.
  • #677
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:12am Mar 14, 2011 2:12am
Quoting nasir.khan
also whenever BOJ wants to intervene they will always start talking about it days before so they could take yen down as much they could by verbal intervention before they put some real bucks into it.
.
indeed....
  • #678
  • Mar 14, 2011 3:14am Mar 14, 2011 3:14am
Quoting Monroe
They didn't intervene in the spot FX market as far as I know. I hear talk about adding liquidity and asset programs.
Sorry for the confusion. I have misinterpreted the news big time
  • #679
  • Mar 14, 2011 3:45am Mar 14, 2011 3:45am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I haven't been able to post much recently due to a flurry of mid-term examinations, but I have a short break in between, and thought that since I am currently unable to sleep, should take the opportunity to pen down some thoughts I had regarding some mental excursions my subconscious has been on lately.

The epicentre of my thoughts, is the EUR/USD. Recently, we have seen the ECB hinting almost unequivocally at the prospect of an interest rate hike of at least 25 basis points as early as the next meeting. Such a hike would inevitably favour long...
I made a couple of post about same things, some days ago.

This is DS's post that got me thinking this way, actually i was thinking that way before but now it makes more sense.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=986
.
  • #680
  • Mar 14, 2011 4:28am Mar 14, 2011 4:28am
It looks like a pure stop hunt in illiquid market, not intervention.
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