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vsa with Malcolm

  • #16,021
  • Mar 13, 2011 1:36pm Mar 13, 2011 1:36pm
Good morning all.

Quoting pres78
What turn around? Last week was a retrace during an uptrend and nothing more... we retraced to 38.2 of the last leg up just like we did omn the first leg. IMHO Friday would not have even made a lower low had the terrible earthquake in Japan not happened. SM saw an opprtunity to mark down and SO the market off "bad news".

Right now March 9th and 10th printed as a hidden test bottom reversal pattern and now I will see if it plays out as a confirmed SOS or not.

A lot of level below us have to give out before I become bearish bias but that...
Oh my god, my weekend can not end any better. Alllll my chart studies has been erased! I woke up excited to study, but was soooo pissed off!. Gawd damn!! I spent my whole weekend marking my charts...

I guess I overlooked it on my 4hour when I should've been focusing more on the longer term. I was intuned with the 4 hour chart than all others. There were just many sings on the 4 hour candle right before the 9th ended, and it still continue to go down. I guess what I was trying to understand was, how would any one have known how to enter that position on a long, given that so many indicators still showed the opposite. After looking at the daily, even though march 9th closed below the high on January 31st Daily, it closed above support on Sep 30th & Nov 9th, and closed above resistance Oct 18th & 26th. This then proves that January 31st High was a weak resistance, only good for a retracement?
  • #16,022
  • Mar 13, 2011 1:51pm Mar 13, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting pres78

The following 2 upbars were on good volume with strong closes... now look at the increase in volume on the next bar (highest of the day on my broker)... why are we seeing this? because we are breaking out of this weeks down move channel... increased volume moving into a channel top shows strength and SM interest in moving out of the channel... also look at how strong the bar closed.

Slight drop off in volume as London was leaving for the day but then we had a nice NS print during an obvious upmove... another sign of strength.
And that is why you entered to a long position , making sure that these down movements were a sign of retracement, only when those 2 unbars were on good volume and closed strong before the dip on LO.
I was looking back on the 4hour chart, and only sign I can see that it was a confirmation to, looking back to Jan 1 and feb 25 lows? I was just trying to look at similar cases, and wondered if these are good signals on the 4hours....
  • #16,023
  • Mar 13, 2011 1:57pm Mar 13, 2011 1:57pm
Quoting PipPipPip
Good morning all.



Oh my god, my weekend can not end any better. Alllll my chart studies has been erased! I woke up excited to study, but was soooo pissed off!. Gawd damn!! I spent my whole weekend marking my charts...

I guess I overlooked it on my 4hour when I should've been focusing more on the longer term. I was intuned with the 4 hour chart than all others. There were just many sings on the 4 hour candle right before the 9th ended, and it still continue to go down. I guess what I was trying to understand was, how would any one have...
No idea about all the dates... All I know is that we have retraced 38.2 fib on both the first and second legs... This is a standard retracement in an uptrend. Again look at just last weeks candle. How weak looking is it? It closed on low volume above the 50% line of last weeks range. Test/NS... This week will be up.

I saw Friday as being up on Thursday night because of the low volume 4hr test of a proven past level of S/D. Waited it out and got in on a perfect test of this level later on in the day on Friday. It's all about seeing the levels of interest and waiting for set-ups in these levels.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,024
  • Mar 13, 2011 2:00pm Mar 13, 2011 2:00pm
whoa... pre-market activity... pretty big volume
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #16,025
  • Mar 13, 2011 2:02pm Mar 13, 2011 2:02pm
Quoting PipPipPip
And that is why you entered to a long position , making sure that these down movements were a sign of retracement, only when those 2 unbars were on good volume and closed strong before the dip on LO.
I was looking back on the 4hour chart, and only sign I can see that it was a confirmation to, looking back to Jan 1 and feb 25 lows? I was just trying to look at similar cases, and wondered if these are good signals on the 4hours....
My entry long was basically in the area of that 1hr test/SO bar but was taken off the 5min charts as I do not take entries off the 1hr. Also I had that 3785 trigger level in my head long before that bar printed. 3785 or 3840 were my two levels of interest on Friday for both long or short entires... I was biased to the long side obviously (per my various analysis) but still was able to get in short off a ND right at that 3830/3840 level in early London trading.

One may be biased but must be open to trading either way if the set-ups are there if you are trading intraday.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,026
  • Mar 13, 2011 2:14pm Mar 13, 2011 2:14pm
My charts have already started ticking over, gap up on EU with a high of 3979,
  • #16,027
  • Mar 13, 2011 2:15pm Mar 13, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting pres78
No idea about all the dates... All I know is that we have retraced 38.2 fib on both the first and second legs......
I too also had a really good feeling of last week's possible move up, but I guess my intuition of last week's move down at that point made it look like a strong turn around.
I guess, even though march 9th ended below 1.3850 area, there weren't much strong support signal on the 4 hour supporting around 1.3775, and the strong signal was around 1.3890 area. It was so confusing, because as it was dipping down to 3775 area, the weekly candle was turning into a bearish candle. However, as I looked it over this weekend, like you said, the weekly candle closed above 2 previous major highs, and 1 major resistance. Now I just have to learn more about entering positions at the right time, because though we know where this is headed, entering at the right time just feels better than waiting....

What is S/D?
  • #16,028
  • Mar 13, 2011 2:28pm Mar 13, 2011 2:28pm
Quoting pres78
My entry long was basically in the area of that 1hr test/SO bar but was taken off the 5min charts as I do not take entries off the 1hr. Also I had that 3785 trigger level in my head long before that bar printed. 3785 or 3840 were my two levels of interest on Friday for both long or short entires... I was biased to the long side obviously (per my various analysis) but still was able to get in short off a ND right at that 3830/3840 level in early London trading.

One may be biased but must be open to trading either way if the set-ups are there...
That was exactly what I had in mind too. 3775 area was also in my mind once 3830-3850 was broken, but the weekly along with the daily really threw me off of entering a long position. But, studying through the weekend, I looked at the recent highs back in september, and even though 3850 was broken this week, the march 9th daily closed above the high back there, so that was some assurance that 3850 is not a strong area any more?

My interest is back down to 1.3830 area, to move up to HOPEFULLY crack 1.40316 area either early this week or end of week. I am just confused on how to enter in at the right time.

But I have a feeling that 3830 will just be a touch, and then 3850 will be a crack of the signal on the move up....
  • #16,029
  • Mar 13, 2011 2:29pm Mar 13, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting PipPipPip
I too also had a really good feeling of last week's possible move up, but I guess my intuition of last week's move down at that point made it look like a strong turn around.
I guess, even though march 9th ended below 1.3850 area, there weren't much strong support signal on the 4 hour supporting around 1.3775, and the strong signal was around 1.3890 area. It was so confusing, because as it was dipping down to 3775 area, the weekly candle was turning into a bearish candle. However, as I looked it over this weekend, like you said, the weekly candle...
Supply and Demand... they key is to not let your long term bias cloud your intraday judgement. The market will give you the signs as it builds the background, then all you have to do is look for the entry signal and pull trigger if it matches the background.

Every weekend I set a plan of where I see price going by the end of the week and then adjust it daily after the NY session closes to suit any differences to what I thought. This daily review allows me to choose high volume points of interest for the upcoming day in which I would like to see trade signals. If a signal appears but is not in my area of interest that doesn't mean I won't trade it... The majority of the time however the trade set-ups occur at previous zones of S/D or at high volume trigger bars trigger levels.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,030
  • Mar 13, 2011 2:30pm Mar 13, 2011 2:30pm
Quoting PipPipPip
That was exactly what I had in mind too. 3775 area was also in my mind once 3830-3850 was broken, but the weekly along with the daily really threw me off of entering a long position. But, studying through the weekend, I looked at the recent highs back in september, and even though 3850 was broken, the march 9th daily closed above the high back there, so that was some assurance that 3850 is not a strong area any more?

My interest is back down to 1.3830 area, to move up to HOPEFULLY crack 1.40316 area either early this week or end of week. I am...
Using VSA the market will tell you when to enter.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,031
  • Mar 13, 2011 2:34pm Mar 13, 2011 2:34pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
My charts have already started ticking over, gap up on EU with a high of 3979,
Wow that's a huge gap up over Friday's close... since gaps normally close before the end of Monday trading day this leads to a good possibilty of Monday being a downday... A close into 3850-3830 would be nice set-up for Tuesday Asia to take it up shy of 3900 and the drop down for a SO / test into this zone pre LO or after LO building the base / bottom for the remainder of the week.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,032
  • Mar 13, 2011 2:41pm Mar 13, 2011 2:41pm
Quoting pres78
Supply and Demand......
I started to look more closely at the 1hr 4hr charts to set some alerts as well, and just set aside my weekly and monthly signals (about 3 numbers that match scarily closely on those two charts).

Seriously, maybe I should stop being greedy, and maybe my weekly trades are good enough, and I shouldn't let long term bias cloud intraday/scalp trading....
  • #16,033
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:10pm Mar 13, 2011 3:10pm
sell 3964, possible target to friday's va-high (3840) or last week va-low (3832).
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #16,034
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:18pm Mar 13, 2011 3:18pm
I struggle to read vsa on daily and weekly charts, anyone else have this problem?
  • #16,035
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:48pm Mar 13, 2011 3:48pm
Quoting Scrat
sell 3964, possible target to friday's va-high (3840) or last week va-low (3832).
I was looking around that area for a short also. I entered in at high 3975. sl -7. I am waiting for another good signal on the 4h chart to enter again. How long do you think it will take to get to vas high/low?
  • #16,036
  • Mar 13, 2011 4:10pm Mar 13, 2011 4:10pm
Quoting PipPipPip
I was looking around that area for a short also. I entered in at high 3975. sl -7. I am waiting for another good signal on the 4h chart to enter again. How long do you think it will take to get to vas high/low?
12hrs 15mins and 39 seconds ...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,037
  • Mar 13, 2011 4:18pm Mar 13, 2011 4:18pm
Quoting pres78
12hrs 15mins and 39 seconds ...
why do i now have a feeling that i should close it?....

edit: i so want to go long though...
  • #16,038
  • Mar 13, 2011 4:21pm Mar 13, 2011 4:21pm
Quoting PipPipPip
why do i now have a feeling that i should close it?....

edit: i so want to go long though...
No harm in playing the old fill the gap trade... was there a VSA signal to short or is it simply a gap trade?

Good chance that we could see that 3840-3830 as we get closer to or just after LO if we have an active Asian session, otherwise based on ADR it could be sometime during NY (if we get there). I would like to see Asia take it down there for a LO test / SO so I can ride it all the way back up. I have a few email alerts set for some levels incase we hit them before I get back up at 3AM to asess the pre LO action.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #16,039
  • Mar 13, 2011 4:30pm Mar 13, 2011 4:30pm
Quoting pres78
No harm in playing the old fill the gap trade... was there a VSA signal to short or is it simply a gap trade?
opening 5M bar was a ND with low broekn on next 5M bar. The shakout looking bar has not been confirmed...shorted on break of the ND and SL set to BE already just in case. We could get a pop up during tokyo open in the form of a UT...
Change is the only constant
  • #16,040
  • Mar 13, 2011 4:33pm Mar 13, 2011 4:33pm
Quoting tgwhbb
opening 5M bar was a ND with low broekn on next 5M bar. The shakout looking bar has not been confirmed...shorted on break of the ND and SL set to BE already just in case. We could get a pop up during tokyo open in the form of a UT...
Yeah I never get in on this whole filling the gap stuff since my broker doesn't open for 30 mins... most of the time the action is already over... BIG gaps today though... larger than we normally see. Many of the EUR crosses.

Edit... it might even be 1 1/2 hours because of DST... clocks went ahead 1hr last night.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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