Price is everything

1) It is a tragic event and my thoughts are with the Japanese people. The situation with the nuclear facilities are compounding the problems for them as more news filters through showing incomprehensible damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami. The BoJ are having an emergency meeting on Monday to try and stabilise the financial markets - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...ter-quake.html

2) Looks like Merkel has been busy again this weekend and changed the terms and conditions of the Euro bailout fund whereby the fund can now purchase EZ bonds as per this article - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...greek-aid.html. This should have a positive effect on the Euro in the short-term.

3) The US economy as we all know is in bad shape. As cloggie states 'It is a fight between two ugly sisters' (US and EZ). US QE policies is shoring up trouble for them in the future, but you also have to ask how the EZ has created this Euro bailout fund. Basically it boils down to QE via the backdoor. The US will recover as will the EZ, but it will take many years to do so.

4) Don't forget the unrest in the Middle East, especially with the current situation in Libya. The Arab League have agreed to the UN 'No Fly Zone'. It seems that Gadaffi didn't make many friends in the Arab world during his tenure. It is a very difficult political situation, but their backing suggest that the 'No Fly Zone' will most likely be instated, but how far will the UN go to enforce it.

Current events around the world are many and happening so fast when the world's economies are in such a fragile state, which will make the markets volatile. Just look at the VIX.

I trade of the higher timeframes so I have a lot more interest in the fundamentals and looking at the bigger picture because ultimately it is what drives currencies on the longer timeframes, although in the end it boils down to demand and supply. Red and many other traders on this thread (and FF) are scalpers and therefore the long-term fundamentals doesn't affect their day trading, I still think having an understanding of the bigger picture in the back of one's mind is important through the analysis of the higher timeframes (d1/w1/mn) and how the bigger fundamentals and news events affect the currencies.

Red prefers to keep this thread to supply and demand charts, so I try to keep my fundamental analysis on this thread to a minimum. We sure can have a healty discussion and debate via Skype or another thread if you like. My Skype details are on my profile page. Add me and I will accept the invitation.

I am getting shouted out by my two little girls (2 and 4yrs old) to make their morning pancakes and then I have to get them ready for their horse riding. I have a busy day today with friends and family coming over. In the evening I will be with OTA.

we have a channel - if respected, goes south to lower demand

EUX follow-up.

if respected implies - aud corrects south and or bullish cable - or both


low risk buy - pending further PA

horizontal

Eventually, this diagonal did a fine job sending the USDx back down.

Break of lower trendline support however there was demand below and Fridays weak USD bounced it back up to a supply level and trendline resistance.

Not sure how this BoJ intervention is going to playout, so I am thinking of just watching things on Monday morning and see how this pans out. I think we are going to see the DX drop further given the momentum of Fridays PMs move and hence would be looking for buys on eu, cable, aussie.

Good Morning Michael,
Could you help me out with a couple of queries I have. Firstly you posted a 1 min chart about three weeks ago on a Friday afternoon and it had a load of horizontal lines on it with gap written at various prices. It caught my attention and I printed it off and its been sat in front of me ever since, can you help me join the dots together as I dont see the pattern.

The other thing, is this week you have posted a couple of 5 min charts with trendlines on. You seem to use these trendlines for getting a entry. I am sort of thinking that it is the same as waiting for a pullback on a 15 min chart when you are in a established short term trend.

I am trying to find some simple effective methods that will give me a few pips at a time and I am eluding that the above points may help me out.

Thank You.

Mike.

Approaching a major supply zone. This bullish channel is going to need some major euro weakness for this supply zone to be rejected.

TIDY

prefer a buy lower than swing, so much momentum in this pair once a trend is established

its back - second test

further analyisis - pivots taken south, s turned r with down channel confluence

Thank you Red... through your charts i am starting to see PA more clearly.

nice to hear

another test - Japan in crisis, not sure how this is going to react and whats going to happen this week, just need to let prices give us the story

Thanks for your answer. I didn't see that. Yours charts and your comments help me understand price action

I see the demand zone to be a tad lower...




Will wait for a bounce

GBPCHF: