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vsa with Malcolm

  • #15,961
  • Mar 12, 2011 9:43am Mar 12, 2011 9:43am
GBPUSD also came down into a familiar zone on Friday... Daily bar based on shape and volume looks like a posisble SO... See what next week brings.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,962
  • Mar 12, 2011 9:59am Mar 12, 2011 9:59am
Seems very bullish to me. I drew every kind of resistance and support lines (to identify supply/demand), trendlines (had a chart very similar to beljevina's ), considering weekly averages and came to conclusion that if it should go down next week it should test support @3670. Not very likely but who knows.

The other way is up. Using the same logic, next week could bring us exactly to last top (on weekly) which is @4280 somewhere. On news (or lack of news) we could go even higher next week.

So if Monday is down and Tuesday won't go lower and will stay neutral I bet for .4270 at the end of the week.

If Monday is up and Tuesday won't go higher and will stay neutral I bet for narrow spread week and we will find us somewhere @3670.

I'm very bad at predictions so don't listen to me. But I would like to hear thoughts of others so I contributed a little bit myself also.
  • #15,963
  • Edited 10:46am Mar 12, 2011 10:04am | Edited 10:46am
Someone in here finally found the real trend. Dont know why everyone thought trend was down. EXACTLY, 38% OF THE LAST MOVE UP!!!!

Now if you look at the Pound you can see a Daily Hammer sitting on the 61.8% support line. See below.




Quoting pres78
If you say so... Rally was caused by QE3 speculation... Ok then.

I called this Friday upbar on Thursday night based on what I saw using supply and demand and VSA. Did I know about QE3 rally? Nope.

The last 2 daily bars have now printed a hidden bottom reversal pattern for whatever reason that may be... the patterns happen and may or may not work out but if the pattern is there one can draw certain expectations from them. As of now this whole weekly move down was simply a 38.2 retrace of the latest leg up and until I see some significant levels...
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  • #15,964
  • Mar 12, 2011 10:24am Mar 12, 2011 10:24am
Quoting pres78
If you say so... Rally was caused by QE3 speculation... Ok then.

I called this Friday upbar on Thursday night based on what I saw using supply and demand and VSA. Did I know about QE3 rally? Nope.

The last 2 daily bars have now printed a hidden bottom reversal pattern for whatever reason that may be... the patterns happen and may or may not work out but if the pattern is there one can draw certain expectations from them. As of now this whole weekly move down was simply a 38.2 retrace of the latest leg up and until I see some significant levels...
You're so right. The way tick activity and or volume affects price indicates where prices are most likely headed. Technicals, Fundamentals, news are all superfluous clutter. Those educated in VSA understand this simple truth, big capital operates markets to earn big profits. All a small retail speculator has to know are 3 bullish and 3 bearish basic setups. At the bottom of a chart look for selling climax, shake out/reverse upthursts, and no supply testing in a rising market. At the top of a chart look for buying climax, up thrusts, no demand bars, and end of a rising market. Add in bullish or bearish squat bars with absorption volume and low volume wide spread up or down bars showing lack of buying or selling pressure and a small retail trader has the basics of a high probability technique for profitably opening new transactions. Support and resistance considerations indicate at what prices big capial are likely interested in accumulating or distributing. This coupled with a strict regime of capital exposure control and profitable position management can make a disciplined speculator who is ruled by market conditions very rich. Many Thanks to the readers and especially to those posting their charts and Volume-Spread Analysis. Best and Good.
  • #15,965
  • Mar 12, 2011 10:32am Mar 12, 2011 10:32am
Quoting Maxpip22
Someone in here finally found the real trend. Dont know why everyone thought trend was down. EXACTLY, 38% OF THE LAST MOVE UP!!!!

Now if you look at the Pound you can see a Daily Hammer sitting on the 61.8% support line. See below.

jIM
Is this demo? Those buy orders shouldn't be sell orders? You have added to losing trades? Why?
  • #15,966
  • Mar 12, 2011 10:45am Mar 12, 2011 10:45am
It may look strange to you but I am scaling into the long term trend. Never fails, just got to have deep pockets to do it. This is how I trade and been doing it for 25 years. Price just as to move 100 pips from the most recent buy limit to go into profit.




Quoting 1pipperhour
Is this demo? Those buy orders shouldn't be sell orders? You have added to losing trades? Why?
  • #15,967
  • Mar 12, 2011 10:52am Mar 12, 2011 10:52am
Quoting rbumbalough
You're so right. The way tick activity and or volume affects price indicates where prices are most likely headed. Technicals, Fundamentals, news are all superfluous clutter. Those educated in VSA understand this simple truth, big capital operates markets to earn big profits. All a small retail speculator has to know are 3 bullish and 3 bearish basic setups. At the bottom of a chart look for selling climax, shake out/reverse upthursts, and no supply testing in a rising market. At the top of a chart look for buying climax, up thrusts, no demand bars,...
News and unexpected disasters are simply a way for SM to shake the hell out of the markets. It allows them to buy lower and sell higher by quickly marking down or up prices off of such events... Look at Mlac who no longer even follows the FX daily news and simply trades what the charts show him.

We had already reached a 38.2 retrace on EU as of Thursday so they didn't need to go down any further but with Friday's horrible news out of Japan they saw an opportunity to mark it down even further adding to their longs and shaking all the little guys out and trapping them into losing shorts.

News and natural disasters simply offer knee jerk reactions... it takes a pretty huge event to completely change a trend once SM has started to build one.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,968
  • Mar 12, 2011 10:53am Mar 12, 2011 10:53am
1st chart shows trend going up. I pull fibs and buy at all Fib levels. I will keep buying as long as it goes down because I know for a fact it will go long again eventually because the trend is your friend. If the 76.1% level is broken then I pull from a bottom, or top, whatever applies, and start again, further back. Malcolm has the right idea here, he has constantly said these 2 pairs, E/U and G/U are on there way up, well, he is right on the money. So why are so many fighting this to the down side. Everyone wants to counter trade, when it is so easy to trade with the trend. Dont understand.

Quoting 1pipperhour
Is this demo? Those buy orders shouldn't be sell orders? You have added to losing trades? Why?
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  • #15,969
  • Mar 12, 2011 11:12am Mar 12, 2011 11:12am
I a trying to explain this so you can understand what I am doing. Example: The recent correction on Cable is currently 367 pips. That is 61.8 % Fib retracement from the move up from 1/25/11 and 38.1 % Fib retracement from the move up from 12/28/11.

That said, I have bought on the way down as follows:
23% bought 1 micro
38% bought 2 micros
50% bought 3 micros
61.8% bought 4 micros

At the 61.8 level i had 713 pips invested, but now price has moved up just 106 pips and I am in profit at 1060 pips. If this goes all the way and I hold this it will be 3740 pips, however, I will pull most of my profit at half way.
  • #15,970
  • Edited 11:24am Mar 12, 2011 11:13am | Edited 11:24am
I hope this answers your question. That i an approximation of what I do. There are a couple of spot buys in there that I do just for GP.





Quoting Maxpip22
I a trying to explain this so you can understand what I am doing. Example: The recent correction on Cable is currently 367 pips. That is 61.8 % Fib retracement from the move up from 1/25/11 and 38.1 % Fib retracement from the move up from 12/28/11.

That said, I have bought on the way down as follows:
23% bought 1 micro
38% bought 2 micros
50% bought 3 micros
61.8% bought 4 micros

At the 61.8 level i had 713 pips invested, but now price has moved up just 106 pips and I am in profit at 1060 pips. If this goes all the way and I hold this...
  • #15,971
  • Mar 12, 2011 12:36pm Mar 12, 2011 12:36pm
Quoting Maxpip22
It may look strange to you but I am scaling into the long term trend. Never fails, just got to have deep pockets to do it. This is how I trade and been doing it for 25 years. Price just as to move 100 pips from the most recent buy limit to go into profit.
I know another trader who trades very similar to this and does well.
Like you stated the size of your pockets plays a huge role in this strategy because 60% of the time you are holding trades in dd while adding.

The prevailing trend in the GBP has been up for sometime however traders like myself trade intra-day profiting from the strength and weakness found daily.

Id be interested in knowing how volume is applied in this approach if your dominant indicator is Fibonacci levels? Thanks.
  • #15,972
  • Mar 12, 2011 12:51pm Mar 12, 2011 12:51pm
Quoting Maxpip22
1st chart shows trend going up. I pull fibs and buy at all Fib levels. I will keep buying as long as it goes down because I know for a fact it will go long again eventually because the trend is your friend. If the 76.1% level is broken then I pull from a bottom, or top, whatever applies, and start again, further back. Malcolm has the right idea here, he has constantly said these 2 pairs, E/U and G/U are on there way up, well, he is right on the money. So why are so many fighting this to the down side. Everyone wants to counter trade, when it is...
Ok I get it, it's something called martingale right? But it means no losing trades or you will lose money. First buys have take profits in place. Last 2 have stop losses (those red lines?). So you accept losing 4 micros trade? But doesn't it wipe away huge amount of your expected gains to cover first orders. Hope you understand what I mean.
  • #15,973
  • Mar 12, 2011 1:10pm Mar 12, 2011 1:10pm
But in doing this I am tempering all that by trading only with LTT. The only way I can lose a trade is if there is a complete reversal, and that dont happen very often. By the time a reversal is finished I have made so much fricking money that a loss means nothing to me. BTW, the last trade I lost was in May of 2010 on Cable and that was approx. 2000 pips. Since I have made 50 times hat.

And yes, it is a martingale sceme, but I never trade against the trend.



Quoting 1pipperhour
Ok I get it, it's something called martingale right? But it means no losing trades or you will lose money. First buys have take profits in place. Last 2 have stop losses (those red lines?). losing 4 micros trade? But doesn't it wipe away huge amount of your expected gains to cover first orders. Hope you understand what I mean.
  • #15,974
  • Mar 12, 2011 1:15pm Mar 12, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting Maxpip22
But in doing this I am tempering all that by trading only with LTT. The only way I can lose a trade is if there is a complete reversal, and that dont happen very often. By the time a reversal is finished I have made so much fricking money that a loss means nothing to me. BTW, the last trade I lost was in May of 2010 on Cable and that was approx. 2000 pips. Since I have made 50 times hat.

And yes, it is a martingale sceme, but I never trade against the trend.
hi Max, how much % free margin do u need this way?
btw what's LTT means?
thanks in advance for comments
  • #15,975
  • Mar 12, 2011 1:45pm Mar 12, 2011 1:45pm
I always tell all of my pupils not to even think about this way of trading with less than $50,000.00 account, PER TRADED PAIR. And even then you have to watch your margin. However, If you want to play with this you can go it with a $1000.00 Micro account, PER TRADED PAIR. I am only answering questions here guys so please dont try this in a real account until you have tested on a demo account. You have to have a good handle on your margin or your account will disappear.

LTT is Long Term Trend

Quoting willkohsg
hi Max, how much % free margin do u need this way?
btw what's LTT means?
thanks in advance for comments
  • #15,976
  • Mar 12, 2011 1:48pm Mar 12, 2011 1:48pm
My stops are there just to secure in case of total collapse. Once my Daily SMA's are crossed telling me the trend is changing, I close all off. Keep in mind, I will pull everything once I get my set profit and wait for another pullback against the major trend. Volume has nothing to do with it, as I just like to listen too and follow Malcolm because I like what he is doing and I like to compare his volumes at the times I take my trades. My trades are only taken at Fib levels off the Daily or higher and my trades last for weeks. Below is an example of my last masterpiece of a trade and will give you an idea of how it works. I made over 15,000 pips on this since christmas time and I still have some running on it. The "S" are sells and the "P"s are where I took profit.

Quoting 1pipperhour
Ok I get it, it's something called martingale right? But it means no losing trades or you will lose money. First buys have take profits in place. Last 2 have stop losses (those red lines?). So you accept losing 4 micros trade? But doesn't it wipe away huge amount of your expected gains to cover first orders. Hope you understand what I mean.
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  • #15,977
  • Mar 12, 2011 2:02pm Mar 12, 2011 2:02pm
Another thing to keep in mind, trading this way you are always in a trade, "I am currently in 15 trades at the moment", ....LOL, my terminal flickers like a Christmas tree....LOL Seriously, the way I trade I dont have to worry about news releases, especially Non farm, I just let them flicker right on thru.



Quoting Maxpip22
My stops are there just to secure in case of total collapse. Once my Daily SMA's are crossed telling me the trend is changing, I close all off. Keep in mind, I will pull everything once I get my set profit and wait for another pullback against the major trend. Volume has nothing to do with it, as I just like to listen too and follow Malcolm because I like what he is doing and I like to compare his volumes at the times I take my trades. My trades are only taken at Fib levels off the Daily or higher and my trades last for weeks. Below is an example...
  • #15,978
  • Mar 12, 2011 2:24pm Mar 12, 2011 2:24pm
Quoting Maxpip22
Another thing to keep in mind, trading this way you are always in a trade, "I am currently in 15 trades at the moment", ....LOL, my terminal flickers like a Christmas tree....LOL Seriously, the way I trade I dont have to worry about news releases, especially Non farm, I just let them flicker right on thru.
I too am like many on here and trade intraday and will take shorts even though my overall long term outlook remains very much bullish. Friday for example I saw an up day coming but my first trade of the day was a short because the set-up was there when the long set-up I wanted was not. Later in the day my long set-up happened and I got in long and rode it back up. I do not like to carry trades in DD (prefer to cut my loses) nor do I have a big enough account to warrent this type of trading (even if I did I wouldn't do it). I don't even like entering a trade which requries a 30 pips SL ... I do however have an overall bias which allows me to take some trades with the trend and hold them longer than intraday but if we want to spend a week retracing then I most certainly will not fight the market and onto the bears train I go...

Up or down regardless of the main trend I trade and make money. The key is knowing when to get in and out.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,979
  • Mar 12, 2011 2:27pm Mar 12, 2011 2:27pm
Quoting Maxpip22
Another thing to keep in mind, trading this way you are always in a trade, "I am currently in 15 trades at the moment", ....LOL, my terminal flickers like a Christmas tree....LOL Seriously, the way I trade I dont have to worry about news releases, especially Non farm, I just let them flicker right on thru.
OMFG...

Are you one of the most retarded traders on the planet, or is your other name NENE?

Bar none, you are more full of shit then any trader I have seen on the forum in a long time.

Pupils? 50k?? Micro lots??

And you don't even have an idea of what a Martingale actually is...

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #15,980
  • Mar 12, 2011 2:33pm Mar 12, 2011 2:33pm
Quoting Magix
OMFG...

Are you one of the most retarded traders on the planet, or is your other name NENE?

Bar none, you are more full of shit then any trader I have seen on the forum in a long time.

Pupils? 50k?? Micro lots??

And you don't even have an idea of what a Martingale actually is...

Oh man did I end up in the EURUSD thread again?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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