Price is everything

That is a very interessting daily fork Anthoniex, also interessting interpretation of the AB=CD pattern.

I find myself moving away more and more from EURUSD trading to be honest, yes opportunities present themselves but there is so much fucking around on that pair its easy to get stopped out.

Whats your view for next week?

Keep a close eye on the EU bond markets which are making new highs -

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?...GB10YR:IND&n=y

Change the ticker in the above URL (Greece) for the following bonds -

US 10y t-note: USGG10YR:IND
US 2y t-note: USGG2YR:IND
Germany: GDBR10:IND
Ireland: GIGB10YR:IND
Portugal: GSPT10YR:IND
Spain: GSPG10YR:IND
Greece: GGGB10YR:IND

Portugal's Five-Year Yield Jumps to Euro-Era Record on Bailout Speculation:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...-comments.html

The bond markets are going to drive Portugal to a bail out. The feet are going to hit the shan soon! The question is not if, but when!

Here are the areas that I am looking at on h1 -



If we gap up into supply, I will be taking it. We are still in an uptrend (technical) but the winds are changing (fundamental). Remember all markets are connected!

Beautiful fooking range for day trading between demand and supply, although you omit the supply zone on your chart

EURUSD -H4

to Orbital,
I wish I could forecast like that 60% of the time...


just a rough guide to see if price actually wants to go towards Median Line

measured moves....(simpler)

For EURUSD. We'll see if .3900 will hold, could be another consolidation for a bit

bbaker's chart tells a lot too. thanks
have a good weekend!

ant-

http://i51.tinypic.com/spds20.gif

Thanks a bunch. Simple but useful.

USDJPY -Daily


Your indi is very handy, will keep. Thanks
But I will do it my way...
sometimes I forget...sorry

hi guys.Weekly trendline and daily supply would hold bullish situation.we might have bearish continuation for few weeks.For long term sell high is better.I also scalping for smaller timeframe.happy weekned guys...

Daily tendline and h4 supply confluence.will see how she react.PA watch

That is a funny mental image of retarded market zombies uttering that phrase from a drooling mouth as they get stabbed in the face.

dollar recovery from demand - but the return to demand has momentum ...........

been posting this every week, looks like its resolving north

I'm glad to see im not the only one in here paying attention to bonds, as most people in here know i prefer supply and demand when scalping but determining direction is always key, its important to consider fundamentals until a certain extent obviously.


We have 3 factors right now:

1) Japan
2) Eurozone: Portugal bailout, Spain Banks, EFSF Bonds
3) US Economy Growth outlook.

Lets look at this in more detail:
1) a) Earthquake:
The Earthquake is likely to have a major impact on japans Economy in the SHORTTERM. Honda and Nissan factories have apparently been damaged. Oil Refineries have been put on a halt, this should be interessting for the ICE prices of oil. Japan consumes about 4.4 million barrels of oil per day and produces only about 200k barrels of oil per day... so this is going to mess with prices, especially if productions come to a halt

b) Nuclear power plant situation unresolved, this could lead to a potential catastrophe

c) Yen situation will drive the markets for a while now, but looking at the monthly and weekly... its dangerously close to an alltime low. The USD should gain momentum against the yen next week, the only reason usdjpy was loosing downwards is because people moved to the euro and commodities instead.

2)

The big question is: How many bailouts signifies a strength? Because if you watch the news everytime a country got bailed out the euro shot up. The EFSF should bring in a wave of confidence but Ireland is acting like little children right now refusing to raise their corporate tax rate.

Spreads on the Bonds are horrible, how long portugal is able to hold on will be the question.

The euro is facing the problem of dealing with inflation and sovereign debt thus a rise in the interest rates should boost the euro to 1.42-1.45 while not having a major impact because the EFSF bonds will be dealing with debt.

As long as there are no austerity measures and fiscal policy changes in some of those countries there is going to be a huge problem..

3) US economy isnt looking to good to be honest, trying to find correct data is even harder because of windowdressing and sugarcoating issues.

Either way there is no way to predict how the markets will unravel in a small timeframe (4hr/daily/weekly) Storm is beginning to brew and speculating right now doesnt matter you have a 50/50 chance of getting it right.

Im moving away from EU and GU as trading instruments and even as scalping instruments even though i am positively inclined to long them based on my Bias.

The only thing clear from the charts is that a downgrade of spain and a failure to raise rates shouldnt have had such an effect on the downmove in the euro. I will bet the Soul of my future firstborn son that this was 100% markets cleaning out the house and reloading their position.

Based on the Pin reaction its clear that there is a buttload of demand in the lower area. Stuck in a range somehow. Next week should be clearer. All i can say is what red has repeatedly said:

Don't be one trick ponies, the EUR/USD is the one instrument that is able to wipe out your bankroll because of market manipulation. People try to find meaning in news and things but the fact is its all about supply and demand, and right now and ever since february it has been more than fucking clear that Demand outweighs supply.


Also @Bbaker:

About the yields, yields rise as the cost of borrowing rises in the face of fear. But its unlikely that any of the countries are going to default... any one of them defaulting would trigger a major economic cataclysm. So its just people shorting bonds via derivatives into shreds profiting all the way.
So the only bonds worth looking at are the US and German bonds (also the EFSF bonds) in order to determine the situation.

Im not sure how to evaluate all of this, would love to have a skype chat with you about this issue sometime

PA - and what it implies

this is a pair ...

Descending broadening wedge inside triangle.

Great work with arcs,
inspired by it on AU.

USDJPY - H4

Agreed.
There's still some room to go down but it's running out of steam imo

Hello,

After having read and studied the whole subject (thanks Red and the others for sharing), I post my vision for GBPUSD.

In TimeFrame weekly (screen 1), we note the following points:
- Since June 2010, the pair is in an uptrend
- That the pair runs into the area between 1.6237 and 1.6350 (supply area)
- The past week has seen the pair rejected the supply area

In TimeFrame H4 (screen 2), the pair is placed in a down channel. (Note the symmetry, thank you Anthoniex for examples)

So for next week, I think we will see a fall to the south to reach the target.

What do you think?

NB: Sorry for my poor english