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vsa with Malcolm

  • #15,941
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:41pm Mar 11, 2011 2:41pm
doesnt seem to be any profit taking at all, looks like eu gonna close right near its high. surely that is very bullish for next sessions?
  • #15,942
  • Mar 11, 2011 3:10pm Mar 11, 2011 3:10pm
food for thought for the weekend...

http://www.injury.com/injuries/wp-co...fighter(1).jpg

friday afternoon volume not drying up during this up move...good SOS IMO.

now let's hope they can drag price back down to near 3840 on sunday so we can get in long at a better price...
Change is the only constant
  • #15,943
  • Mar 11, 2011 3:21pm Mar 11, 2011 3:21pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
I really was looking for sells only today. I saw the strength but never thought it will make any mentionworth move up. So I take time this weekend and I really will get into supply/demand theme again. There seems to be much that I'm missing.
Likewise - don't dwell too much on it though. I'm just glad I didn't try to grab a (perceived) bargain - having my order in below SOW worked very well and saved me losing money.

I think I should have re-evaluated my position after it broke through todays and yesterday's POC - but by then it was too late in the day for any substantial move (IMHO) so its week over and lets look forward to next week.

I want to go and find out more about the futures volume at rollover - I'm worried I've been making conclusions on duff information. Maybe I should stick to spot but I've found the futures volume so much easier to read.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,944
  • Mar 11, 2011 3:29pm Mar 11, 2011 3:29pm
i find i get thrown off more by futures volume than spot, not sure why but i think the spikes are so large in futures and the low vol bars are so often and so low i find it harder to read than spot because the vol is up and down more and by much bigger variations. so many low vol bars in futures compare to spot.

having said that the difference is not that huge on the important bars, the same big vol spikes in spot are visible in futures as well

daily futures vol today was very low, but as fxlive said that may be more due to people staying away figuring out the earthquake impact than anything else. daily spot vol is about normal on mine.
  • #15,945
  • Mar 11, 2011 3:54pm Mar 11, 2011 3:54pm
Quoting ewokuk
doesnt seem to be any profit taking at all, looks like eu gonna close right near its high. surely that is very bullish for next sessions?
I don't buy it - it's too easy, and we know, it's never easy with the euro. Certainly not discounting bullishness, but the fundie sentiment wagon on the euro has rolled out (ie., Spain downgrade=100 pip drop, sterling rate negation, increased talk of usefullness of a EU rate increase, sovereign debt, bank debts, Italy TBD) - I don't think we're looking at a clear rise.

Personally, I think there's huge risk in events to unfold this weekend - death counts are already over 1000 already - while the market doesn't "count" these, news event risk out of Japan is huge: what if there's a nuclear plant problem? How will that affect the region, risk, and the yen? If yen appreciation continues, how will a supposedly smaller Japanese industry base feel about a UJ approaching the 80 barrier? Will the tragedy be enough to stifle Noda & industry calls on yen valuation, if oil continues down? What about the Japanese's love for American products and the impact to US GDP, and thus US equity markets valuations? Aren't global equities on shaking/resistive ground already? What about the cost to the Japanese economy - Katrina didn't do much for the US economy overall - it was $70B in cost - this quake is likely to be upwards of $100B - is that good for the yen/Japan? What about inflation risk for the region - what does Japan export, or, did export?

Sure one can take the opposite view on all the above, because it's the big boys who call these and - as I like to say - they whip out the rolodex of reasons - perhaps they want a better deal before taking things up. But, throw in EU issues and lots of unspoken-for countries yet (ie., big ones), and I'll take this a step at a time. 1.396 will be reached and 1.4/1.404 perhaps, but where will it park and how much of a daily wick will we get? Oh, don't forget those algos - that's probably what's driven it to close at the extreme topside on the day. On the downside, don't think 1.38 is over, and 1.36x is possible ... but for now, I must grab a beer ...
  • #15,946
  • Mar 11, 2011 3:58pm Mar 11, 2011 3:58pm
good god! your head is as bad as your charts, lines everywhere lol

always a billion and one things that might go one way or another. all i know is 3855 is first support and after friday assuming up move continues then 4000 would be a target for monday. but when it comes to it, doesnt bother me what it does ill just follow the high volume spikes. only people that want to hold trades longer than a day need try to work out how likely it is to go to where, i just identify first significant support below, first sigificant resistance above, wait for it to reach one or the other and if the vol shows activity ill know what to do, simples (or simples in theory at least not quite as easy in practice it seems)
  • #15,947
  • Mar 11, 2011 5:03pm Mar 11, 2011 5:03pm
Quoting ewokuk
good god! your head is as bad as your charts, lines everywhere lol

always a billion and one things that might go one way or another. all i know is 3855 is first support and after friday assuming up move continues then 4000 would be a target for monday....
Question! Why is 3855 support? Struggling to see why.
  • #15,948
  • Edited 5:40pm Mar 11, 2011 5:26pm | Edited 5:40pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
Question! Why is 3855 support? Struggling to see why.
Support and resistance really needs to be looked at a zones and not so much levels. Daily support and resistance that some have on their MT4 charts drawn by an indicator are a line and are good for that day... Major supply and demand zones are just that zones.

Look at my 4hr chart we have a zone below us from roughly 3874-3841 (some sujectivity here on how they are drawn, quite like trend lines) which would contain somewhere in the middle 3855. Look at this zone with respect to supply and demand over even just the last few weeks and you will see how this zone could now be tested from above before moving on since we pushed back up through it...

These zones are everywhere and are entered and tested on a regular basis... check out points of ranging on 4hr and Daily charts and there is a good chance we are stuck in, just above or just below a S/D zone.

The first time supply was found and price was rejected... the next few times supply was still present but the rejections were less severve showing that supply was being removed. Often times after several tests price will enter a zone and bounce around in it while it's testing for any remaining S/D. Then after we broke out price approached and was testing for and obviously some supply was still present but price quickly found support below this zone as demand re-entered the market. Since we moved down through and then right back up through this zone the chances that the bulls will want to test this zone once again to make sure the last of the supply is gone before proceeding upwards is quite good.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,949
  • Mar 11, 2011 5:43pm Mar 11, 2011 5:43pm
Quoting pres78
Support and resistance really needs to be looked at a zones and not so much levels. Daily support and resistance that some have on their MT4 charts drawn by an indicator are a line and are good for that day... Major supply and demand zones are just that zones.

Look at my 4hr chart we have a zone below us from roughly 3874-3841 (some sujectivity here on how they are drawn, quite like trend lines) which would contain somewhere in the middle 3855. Look at this zone with respect to supply and demand over even just the last few weeks and you will...
Excellent, thanks for the chart and explanation! You say you're only a newbie to this but your charts and trades are coming on leaps and bounds by the looks of things. You alone have made me start looking at and considering 5min charts a lot more than I ever would have before.

Cheers,

Liam
  • #15,950
  • Mar 11, 2011 6:12pm Mar 11, 2011 6:12pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
Excellent, thanks for the chart and explanation! You say you're only a newbie to this but your charts and trades are coming on leaps and bounds by the looks of things. You alone have made me start looking at and considering 5min charts a lot more than I ever would have before.

Cheers,

Liam
New only to VSA... been a long time studier of the FX market and supply / demand, fibo's etc... VSA based entries and exits have been the icing on the cake and a major turning point in my trading.

Have a great weekend Liam and all other VSA'ers...

Jason
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,951
  • Mar 11, 2011 6:29pm Mar 11, 2011 6:29pm
Quoting pres78
Have a great weekend Liam and all other VSA'ers...
Same to you Jason, and well done for catching a cracker trade today
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,952
  • Mar 11, 2011 6:37pm Mar 11, 2011 6:37pm
Quoting pres78
New only to VSA... been a long time studier of the FX market and supply / demand, fibo's etc... VSA based entries and exits have been the icing on the cake and a major turning point in my trading.

Have a great weekend Liam and all other VSA'ers...

Jason
Ah i gotcha, well thanks again anyway, enjoy your weekend too!
  • #15,953
  • Mar 12, 2011 5:00am Mar 12, 2011 5:00am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Question! Why is 3855 support? Struggling to see why.
just remembered that being the low on 9th March but really its been to 50-60 so many times anywhere there will do, id prefer 50-55 though.

seems big explosion at japan nuclear plant, sunday might be interesting. i probably wont touch anything until london open though.
  • #15,954
  • Mar 12, 2011 7:26am Mar 12, 2011 7:26am
Quoting pres78
Look at my 4hr chart...
Jason, just looking at your chart again and testing for demand is not something I'm familiar with. Can you elaborate?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,955
  • Edited 7:58am Mar 12, 2011 7:35am | Edited 7:58am
Quoting Steve Gill
Jason, just looking at your chart again and testing for demand is not something I'm familiar with. Can you elaborate?
That lable is wrong... I mean't testing to see if any supply is remaning... we tested and were rejected at that zone and then finally busted through and the normal path after busting through a supply or demand zone is to re-test it... we did so this week and obviously found a little remaining supply moving us back down through but we quickly found support and bounced back up through. Looking at the weekly bar the whole thing for me shows as low volume and looks like a test bar or even a NS. That's why I feel next week will be up. The market is always testing for supply and demand and once it finally removes it and breaks through it will normally re-test at some point unless we have seen a blow through on high volume in which case we may not re-test the original zone but will re-test the high volume bar itself.

Edit: Sorry if some of my termanology is not quite right prehaps as I am self taught and have developped a certain way of viewing the market with respect to support and resistance which is of course caused by supply and demand.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,956
  • Mar 12, 2011 7:48am Mar 12, 2011 7:48am
Quoting pres78
That lable is wrong... I mean't testing to see if any supply is remaning... we tested and we rejected at that zone and then finally busted through and the normal path after busting through a supply or demand zone is to re-test it... we did so this week and obviously found a little remaining supply moving us back down through but we quickly found support and bounced back up through. Looking at the weekly bar the whole thing for me shows as low volume and looks like a test bar or even a NS. That's why I feel next week will be up. The market is always...
That's cool, and makes sense - thanks for clearing it up
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,957
  • Mar 12, 2011 7:57am Mar 12, 2011 7:57am
Quoting pres78
That lable is wrong...

market had sudden afternoon rally on Friday speculating about QE3...because of earthquake in Japan...Over weekend market will probably speculate about EZ...How and what else they will speculate and how they will interpret it ...no one knows...So all ND and NS will be modified on the go.... At this point I think VSA cannot go that far in prediction...unless market has already predetermined value for USD no matter what...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #15,958
  • Mar 12, 2011 8:03am Mar 12, 2011 8:03am
Quoting mima
market had sudden afternoon rally on Friday speculating about QE3...because of earthquake in Japan...Over weekend market will probably speculate about EZ...How and what else they will speculate and how they will interpret it ...no one knows...So all ND and NS will be modified on the go.... At this point I think VSA cannot go that far in prediction...unless market has already predetermined value for USD no matter what...
If you say so... Rally was caused by QE3 speculation... Ok then.

I called this Friday upbar on Thursday night based on what I saw using supply and demand and VSA. Did I know about QE3 rally? Nope.

The last 2 daily bars have now printed a hidden bottom reversal pattern for whatever reason that may be... the patterns happen and may or may not work out but if the pattern is there one can draw certain expectations from them. As of now this whole weekly move down was simply a 38.2 retrace of the latest leg up and until I see some significant levels taken out below us I remain bullish at least until 4280 is re-tested.

You are right though that because of events such as earthquakes, terror attacks etc... one has to be open to changing on the fly with the market but that does not mean that one cannot hold a longer term perspective or bias and that the SM does not give longer term hints to where they are going in the charts.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,959
  • Mar 12, 2011 9:02am Mar 12, 2011 9:02am
Quoting pres78
If you say so...
It was earthquake that caused all kind of speculation...as consequence QE3 was one of them...for many others we don't know...No one knew that earthquake would happened...JPY got strong after earthquake etc...AUD moved 180 pips up...never mind... have a good weekend.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #15,960
  • Mar 12, 2011 9:07am Mar 12, 2011 9:07am
Quoting mima
It was earthquake that caused all kind of speculation...as consequence QE3 was one of them...for many others we don't know...No one knew that earthquake would happened...JPY got strong after earthquake etc...AUD moved 180 pips up...never mind... have a good weekend.
Your very right no one knew but I saw Friday as an upday before the earthquake based on analysis. QE3 has been in the news also long before the earthquake so if it happens it won't be simply because Japan had an earthquake.

Anyway we all see the markets differently and that's what makes this market and forum so great.

I wish you also a great weekend.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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