Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1164 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #23,261
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:12pm Mar 10, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Once upon a time there was a rich King who had four wives.
He loved the 4th wife the most and endowed her with rich robes and
treated her to the finest of delicacies. He gave her nothing but the best.
He also loved the 3rd wife very much and was always showing her off to neighboring kingdoms. However, he feared that one day she would leave Him for another. He also loved his 2nd wife. She was his confidant and was always kind,
considerate and patient with him. Whenever the King faced a problem, he
could confide in her, and she would help him get...
This thread is created of Stories the Wisdom.Nice stories.

PS ... probably better no have wife ... each dimension is changed
  • #23,262
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:14pm Mar 10, 2011 2:14pm
Quoting Vourvoul
The Higher... the Fewer...
In what units of measurement please?
  • #23,263
  • Mar 10, 2011 5:35pm Mar 10, 2011 5:35pm
I just saw ur story, I am sorry for your friend. Also son of my team mate killed himself in car accident, apperantely he drove too fast, and he was 20 years old.
Today I went with my friend to buy some training equipment, so our competitiors have better conditions to train, but they are all so lazy and uninterested. All what can I say you people is that, money is not gonna buy you wealth and happines but people who are you dealing with. That is the most important thing. all best
  • #23,264
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:18pm Mar 10, 2011 11:18pm
I talked with a previous hedge fund owner and an fx desk manager. He thought it was funny that I traded currencies in the sense that I have no competitive advantage besides the fact that it is liquid (which can be a problem in itself). He mentioned that I should try to find a niche in the market. At this point I said that as a retail trader, I have no access to these markets. He agreed. The only way he could think of in terms of getting a foot in the door was through a trading competition. Headhunters don't just come.

Finally he said that convertible arbitrage opportunities are dwindling. He suggested that quant skills will not be as important in the future. Instead, he suggested that I take economics (as fx is heavily dependent on political factors).
  • #23,265
  • Mar 11, 2011 12:37am Mar 11, 2011 12:37am
Quoting Fana
Wow! I am from kyjov. It is 19km from Hodonin!. maybe i know your wife... what is her name? Oh, this is not democracy but corruptionacy. People are slaves. There are komunist(covered in ODS) and they have all under controll.
haha small world
  • #23,266
  • Mar 11, 2011 12:44am Mar 11, 2011 12:44am
fti i have a question

what do u think about using fibonacci numbers in exponential moving averages
together with the fib /gann retracement tool
ive been testing it today ,and from what i see it shows good oversold and overbought levels
since i was looking at the volume chart on euro futures


also i use trendlines,and evry time trendlines interesect each other the price always bounces of those levels,is it that the price finds a equilibrium from past to present,and supply and demand have met,
it always makes me wonder why

salute
  • #23,267
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:43am Mar 11, 2011 2:43am
Big earthquake in Japan. 8.8 on the scale with a tsunami sweeping through http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12709598
  • #23,268
  • Mar 11, 2011 3:12am Mar 11, 2011 3:12am
Hi, with all due respect, you may want to read at least the first 250 pages of this thread. EMA's, retrace tools ect should not be used.

Quoting dragan53
fti i have a question

what do u think about using fibonacci numbers in exponential moving averages
together with the fib /gann retracement tool
ive been testing it today ,and from what i see it shows good oversold and overbought levels
since i was looking at the volume chart on euro futures


also i use trendlines,and evry time trendlines interesect each other the price always bounces of those levels,is it that the price finds a equilibrium from past to present,and supply and demand have met,
it always makes me wonder why

salute
  • #23,269
  • Mar 11, 2011 3:23am Mar 11, 2011 3:23am
8.9 now. It seems that their airports, trains and ports are all shut down. Transportation is a wreck.

Japan's main refineries are shut down, some are burning. Their pipelines have ruptured and the nuclear power is shut down (thank god there is no radiation leak). Electricity ok.

Several financial sectors damaged.

Rumors that a second larger earthquake is about to hit.

Although Japan is very well prepared, it will have a hard time re-positioning.


Quoting Zoran
Big earthquake in Japan. 8.8 on the scale with a tsunami sweeping through http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12709598
  • #23,270
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:06am Mar 11, 2011 4:06am
Quoting fullperson
Hi, with all due respect, you may want to read at least the first 250 pages of this thread. EMA's, retrace tools ect should not be used.
should not be used as trade signals ,but as help
a guide
marty shwartz never bought a stock below the ema
i read the first couple of pages about 3 times now
but i want to find out what the master thinks
  • #23,271
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:24am Mar 11, 2011 4:24am
Quoting dragan53
should not be used as trade signals ,but as help
a guide
marty shwartz never bought a stock below the ema
i read the first couple of pages about 3 times now
but i want to find out what the master thinks
Hi Dragan53. FP has a true. Fti has written

"Having said that, I must highlight a very critical point.
And that is, for us who practise "true to the masters" methodologies.
Indicators have no capacity to be predictive, by virtue that they are derivatives of historical database."

He also has written something about EMA spagetti or something like that... it is there, the answer i am sure:-).

Hint : there are parts in the thread, when Fti presented his on-line trading. His orders are sometimes "rescued by 4-5pips only!". Regards
  • #23,272
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:33am Mar 11, 2011 4:33am
Quoting dragan53
should not be used as trade signals ,but as help
a guide
marty shwartz never bought a stock below the ema
i read the first couple of pages about 3 times now
but i want to find out what the master thinks
Hi ALL,

@dragan53,
Building lagger on Laggers?
and use it to predict the future?
I think the turtle shell fortune telling will do better.

But for different folks different strokes.
If it works for you, Then good luck.
Otherwise you may like to retrain yourself , reading what i had given.
Unfortunately i am still very weak and can ill afford any hands holding sessions.

lets hope your "traffic lights" not short circuited.
I prefer use my eyes & brain than some machine, when crossing roads and trading.
Sorry just me and my old school.
Even now,with a 30% pump, i still walk with my own dilegence, no walking crutches.
A bit wobbly, but i 'll manage.

If you like may like try trading with someone else talking over your ears with opiniions.
Is same as having indicators, 50% odds.
lets see how your focus and reflex ,copes with changing markets.

Good Fortune.
regards

PS: No master me ,please.
Just one old tired dog , trying leave behind years of trading experience.
Here we friends with same interest trying hold each other true.
  • #23,273
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:40am Mar 11, 2011 4:40am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

@dragan53,
Building lagger on Laggers?
and use it to predict the future?
I think the turtle shell fortune telling will do better.

But for different folks different strokes.
If it works for you, Then good luck.
Otherwise you may like to retrain yourself , reading what i had given.
Unfortunately i am still very weak and can ill afford any hands holding sessions.

lets hope your "traffic lights" not short circuited.
I prefer use my eyes & brain than some machine, when crossing roads and trading.
Sorry just me and my old school.
Even...
Hi Fti. great to see you are here around. I hope you feel better and that your rehab is going on. Regards
  • #23,274
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:41am Mar 11, 2011 4:41am
Quoting dragan53
should not be used as trade signals ,but as help
a guide
marty shwartz never bought a stock below the ema
i read the first couple of pages about 3 times now
but i want to find out what the master thinks
not a bad thing, what he does.
at the least he will not be swimming against the trend.
but to use it for trade decision process and timing, is a whole different kettle of....

regards
  • #23,275
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:41am Mar 11, 2011 4:41am
I am watching the news now of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Looks like massive damage and loss of life. Prayers being sent up for the people of Japan. My family in Hawaii is now on the move for higher ground as the tsunami alarms are sounding now.

I am short the GBP/$ and the $/Y, and will add positions when we see pullbacks. Hope you are all well.

fti, just saw your post and hope you are feeling better. No long walks on the beach today my friend.
  • #23,276
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:43am Mar 11, 2011 4:43am
Using technical indicators often leads to rigid methodologies, as well as biased opinions. They serve only to reinforce psychological confidence.

From a statistics point of view, the EMA does a terrible job with time series data in the fx market. Laggers upon laggers is very true. Indicators often try to "smooth out" their data, by literally doing an average of the average to find trend. Then they try to adjust for other patterns like seasonality by "optimizing" data. At some point, it's downright silly.

You want to know what fti thinks? He has spent countless hours writing his thoughts on this thread. Please explore his thoughts by reading what he has written. The first couple of pages are filled with wisdom which will take time to unravel. I urge you to read at least the first 250 pages, as this will help solidify your understanding of this methodology. Please don't be discouraged, it's worth it.




Quoting dragan53
should not be used as trade signals ,but as help
a guide
marty shwartz never bought a stock below the ema
i read the first couple of pages about 3 times now
but i want to find out what the master thinks
  • #23,277
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:45am Mar 11, 2011 4:45am
Quoting Fana
Hi Fti. great to see you are here around. I hope you feel better and that your rehab is going on. Regards
Fana

Is not so nice life anymore.

Doctors gave me difficult decisions to make.
Continue smoke and die, and if trade , prepare for sudden death.
I asked whats the alternative?
He said, well if you stop all those things , die slower.
I like his sense of humour.
Give up living to live, or chose to live and die?

regards
  • #23,278
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:47am Mar 11, 2011 4:47am
i get what u mean
the averages just average stuff down
keeping u in the notice what the average is,rising or up

5 pips,thats fine by me,i scalp
1m,orderflow
the moving averages just give the sentiment of the average majority
of the historic period
but lets not forget that traders/dealers will react to historical prices,
and we are in a trading arena,there cannot be more than there is
things are limited
if im seeing the buying at 7/10 ,then minutes after,i see high volume higher shadown down bars,then the next bars next to it are down,that would mean that there wasnt much absorptions,because if there was,demand would suck up supply and lift the price up
then we would have 5/10 buyers,moving to 3/10
in the present,
so lets calculate that present compared with historical trading,
some big instituion might wanna sell the euro,but they bought before,we would see them in the historical presence,and they would need to exit now,and exits for big instituions are all about liqiiduty
and the price is determined by liqidity

""Fractional pricing is market driven. Using our proprietary rate engine, we aggregate prices from some of the world's leading FX banks, in real-time. Because quotes are derived directly from bank prices, dealing spreads will fluctuate to reflect available forex market liquidity.""
-open ecry broker

so determening on the forces of supply and demand we might see the market move accord to the force

im no economist,expert,just a guy who searches a lot,and watched the market a lot

i dont know how right im,but thats my take

btw,lets not forget that 70% of the stockmarket are algo trades
and what are algos made out of ......
i dont know in the currencies,theres more and more bots trading
to get the better prices for the trader/instituion
  • #23,279
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:49am Mar 11, 2011 4:49am
Quoting fti
Fana

Is not so nice life anymore.

Doctors gave me difficult decisions to make.
Continue smoke and die, and if trade , prepare for sudden death.
I asked whats the alternative?
He said, well if you stop all those things , die slower.
I like his sense of humour.

regards
You are strong Fti, one of the strongest i know. And when doctors are joking, thats good signs! because when one is bad with health, they dont joke!
  • #23,280
  • Mar 11, 2011 5:01am Mar 11, 2011 5:01am
Quoting dragan53
i get what u mean
the averages just average stuff down
keeping u in the notice what the average is,rising or up

5 pips,thats fine by me,i scalp
1m,orderflow
the moving averages just give the sentiment of the average majority
of the historic period
but lets not forget that traders/dealers will react to historical prices,
and we are in a trading arena,there cannot be more than there is
things are limited
if im seeing the buying at 7/10 ,then minutes after,i see high volume higher shadown down bars,then the next bars next to it are down,that...
i can understand your sentiments.
Like i told some, if you are novice, you can use the EMAs as cover parameters to try determine that you not trading against the trend.
With some market experience, it becomes hinderence.So try drop the training wheels when you are proficient in your mindset. Is a whole new world of freedom and speed of mind.

And about the robots.
Well if robots rules the world.
Do we need be slaves?

Robots have their uses, but i not believe they will ever out do God's creation.
Can man's creation out do God, seriously i have my reservations.
Algo in robots have their limitations,and quickly become obsolete in real battle situations.
Man will always find ways outwit them. MOT (matter of time)
The mind has the flexibility to adapt to change quickly, robots?.
well epends on the mind running them.

regards
23 traders viewing now