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vsa with Malcolm

  • #15,801
  • Edited 7:41pm Mar 10, 2011 7:16pm | Edited 7:41pm
Quoting malcolmb14
4 hr eu has an upper trendline at that old resistance level 1.3880 , we may miss a few pips waiting for that to break BUT for me that is the level to start looking for longs.

sitting in airport on mac, wish I knew how to do screen capture on a mac , then i could post a chart.

I think if reason to look for sells of 1.3850 , stop above 1.3880 , tp 1.3750
I am hoping lo will lead to touch 1.3890 and a break around 1.3850. I don't think I am going to get any sleep again tonight.
  • #15,802
  • Mar 10, 2011 8:12pm Mar 10, 2011 8:12pm
Quoting pres78
I am eyeing the same 3830-3840 levels as Sono for a test but if we move up away and then drop back down for another test into this level leading into or just after LO that would be great too. Also a SO with confirmation and trigger would also be OK.
Man if only we weren't 4 hrs away from LO... (oh and that damn 4hr trendline over head that Malc brought to my attention that I was blissfully blind to )

Signs of buying / accumulation all over the 1hr chart... look at those wicks pointing south.

So the price is back above the Hull (which has turned blue) and the PAL... we have close back above yesterday's POC at 3822 and are also above today's developping POC (but it still so damn early). We are however still below both the DPP and that 3830-3840 zone and yes that damn 4hr trendline... I really must consider throwing a few on my charts for fun.

But look at that nice NS that just closed... just still not quite feeling the set-up... seems to easy.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,803
  • Mar 10, 2011 8:19pm Mar 10, 2011 8:19pm
Quoting PipPipPip
I am looking your responses over and studying them. I will also look into that book.
My personal recommendations which I shared with another on here just yesterday with respect to VSA.

Read MTM (which you can get on here)... it may not all make sense at first but once you read it come back here and read all chart related posts by Malc, Dr G, Hidden Gap, Intel and Sono (go into their profiles and view all attachments that are charts) and many things read will make much more sense... then go back and MTM read again as it will become so much clearer the second time and with now having seen some real life examples.

VSA is complex and takes time but once the light bulb goes off you will never look at a chart the same way again.

I posted a few links the other night too, to a couple of video's by Intel and a few Tradeguider videos that others have posted on here.

Best of luck... it will be worth it.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,804
  • Mar 10, 2011 10:51pm Mar 10, 2011 10:51pm
As if on cue, the market shows a principle and brands me a liar in one fell swoop. LOL

Take a look at the chart below.

The trade itself was not great and if and how much money one made would depend on what is done after the entry. However the idea to pick up here is the Low volume trigger number concept I put forth.

Now I am sure you can see that the No Demand is in fact, not a "buying bar". But the bar is a No Demand and an NR7 bar with not only volume less than the previous two, but also the lowest volume in 20 intervals. After weakness this bar appears but the market doesn't fall, it drifts sideways to slightly down.

Then bang a Narrow range (NR4) equal bar on increasing volume (a squat) that has its high at the same level as the close of the No Demand. The market falls off a cliff.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #15,805
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:20pm Mar 10, 2011 11:20pm
OIL 30" seems to be a perfect set up for going short.

Downtrend market, upthrust, accompanied by no demand bar confirmed by downbars.
  • #15,806
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:37pm Mar 10, 2011 11:37pm
Quoting polomine
Hi Intel,

I'm afraid I can not do that, since it needs MT4 software support. As far as I know, MT4 doesn't support SMS yet.
  • #15,807
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:42pm Mar 10, 2011 11:42pm
Quoting pres78
I will be the marter on this and call and up day tommorow for EU, complete reversal of today ...

Reasoning... my last 4hr bar of the day ended as a nice low volume test bar down into a weekly low at closed in the top 25% of it's range back above 3785 trigger from several of my higher volume 4hr bars over the past few weeks.
Can you post a chart (4h)? I'm not as convinced - waking up this morning I see price bounced off yesterday's POC on next to zero volume (futures) and now have headed south.

Do you consider the price now (1.3793) a bargain or has your mind changed since yesterday? I'm very interested, the best way for me to learn is to listen to others arguments and see if they can convince me
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,808
  • Mar 11, 2011 12:18am Mar 11, 2011 12:18am
Quoting Steve Gill
Can you post a chart (4h)? I'm not as convinced - waking up this morning I see price bounced off yesterday's POC on next to zero volume (futures) and now have headed south.

Do you consider the price now (1.3793) a bargain or has your mind changed since yesterday? I'm very interested, the best way for me to learn is to listen to others arguments and see if they can convince me
This was simply an end of day observation made that was based on the attached chart. Now since that I did agree with Sono that a test into the 3830/3840 zone or for me even back down into this same 3785 trigger zone would be the safest entries to go long and further confirmation.

Left to right red lines show times when high volume bars hit the level 3785 with either their H/L or C... the furthest to the left is the second highest spread and vol bar this year for me... This shows me some vol interest at this level...

Now the last bar yesterday ended as a test of this level going down below and closing back above on lower volume. Also the last bar to the right before the test bar had it's low at this level before closing back on it's high... the next 4 bars red bars show increased volume as we approched this level but then volume dropped off as we passed down through and then lower and then we went blew back up through on a major increase in volume as SM determined yep... no supply left based on the obvious lack of volume.

May not convence you but that's why I took this view for today.

That and sometimes it's just fun to be different.

Edit... since I posted this chart that latest 4hr bar has gotten a little better looking post LO
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,809
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:12am Mar 11, 2011 1:12am
Well, Pres78 1.3816 (6EM) is your long on a test after a shake out after pushing thru supply.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #15,810
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:18am Mar 11, 2011 1:18am
Got to 1.3815 on No Buying Pressure and are now falling back.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #15,811
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:43am Mar 11, 2011 1:43am
Quoting HiddenGap
As if on cue, the market shows a principle and brands me a liar in one fell swoop. LOL

Take a look at the chart below.

The trade itself was not great and if and how much money one made would depend on what is done after the entry. However the idea to pick up here is the Low volume trigger number concept I put forth.

Now I am sure you can see that the No Demand is in fact, not a "buying bar". But the bar is a No Demand and an NR7 bar with not only volume less than the previous two, but also the lowest volume in 20 intervals. After weakness...
don't be too hard on yourself, that NR4 happened on the earthquake news. Personally was expecting the 6E to return to 1.38 sometime during the euro session with all the dicking around the 1.3825 area. Earthquake just sped everything up.
  • #15,812
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:10am Mar 11, 2011 2:10am
Trying this 5 min thing on a demo today.
It’s all in a picture (so it would be better to follow). If someone has comments, like better entry, tp, sl or maybe too risky trade, etc., feel free to share.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,813
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:12am Mar 11, 2011 2:12am
Any other takers for below quiz ??

More takers with answers mean more different observations for us to learn from.



Quiz: Look at EUR/USD HI 9-Mar chart and tell me "What did I miss here ???"

I will answer after Fri US Stock Market Open, after I come back.


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  • #15,814
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:14am Mar 11, 2011 2:14am
Anyone else hate when the markets won't wait for you? I was all ready to short the 15 min no demand and subsequent hidden upthrust when I got called downstairs to a meeting - I come back up and its dropped 40 pips lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,815
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:14am Mar 11, 2011 2:14am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Trying this 5 min thing on a demo today.
It’s all in a picture (so it would be better to follow). If someone has comments, like better entry, tp, sl or maybe too risky trade, etc., feel free to share.
Looks like a good interpretation to me, but I too am just starting to look into 5 min charts so i'd be interested what others have to say on this.
  • #15,816
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:29am Mar 11, 2011 2:29am
Quoting Steve Gill
Anyone else hate when the markets won't wait for you? I was all ready to short the 15 min no demand and subsequent hidden upthrust when I got called downstairs to a meeting - I come back up and its dropped 40 pips lol
And it keeps dropping. I wonder if this is the climatic action sonofsin was waiting for an up move. It is still heading towards .3700. There is a tl at .3745 area, maybe this will stop it.
  • #15,817
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:32am Mar 11, 2011 2:32am
Quoting 1pipperhour
And it keeps dropping. I wonder if this is the climatic action sonofsin was waiting for an up move. It is still heading towards .3700. There is a tl at .3745 area, maybe this will stop it.
After half an hour gone in the hourly bar there is a lot of volume, should be pretty high by the end of the hour.

Likewise with Cable.
  • #15,818
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:33am Mar 11, 2011 2:33am
http://i865.photobucket.com/albums/a.../11march4h.jpg

Im thinking price will drop to the bottom of the range I drew in the box.

Ive also highlighted the weakness that I see.

Since this was the last range were they either accumulated or distrubuted, idea is for price to trade in this range again.
  • #15,819
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:43am Mar 11, 2011 2:43am
Quoting Oxford
1.3744 is the VAL of last week.
1.3734 is the VAH seven weeks ago.
1.3700 is the POC seven weeks ago.

Maybe this holds.
Think Malc was on the money when he said that 3670 would be tested. I see some decent resistance at 3650, not great but it may be enough to cause the next rally.

I think that this week was just testing for bears, maybe next week we can see a break out.
  • #15,820
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:52am Mar 11, 2011 2:52am
Quoting HiddenGap
Well, Pres78 1.3816 (6EM) is your long on a test after a shake out after pushing thru supply.
Yes well thankfully I wanted to get a test down lower in the 3785 area or above 3830-3840... We got a pre LO SO type move down and then the first hr of London took it up but not on great volume and we never got a good strong move above the 3830-3840 area to allow for a test down into it...

Can you share a chart of the test you mention and what does 6EM stand for?

I was able to get in short however 10 mins after that first London 1hr bar closed weak in my eyes... Nice ND that hit it's high right on the DPP and the 5 min trigger bars close... no volume into this high volume level means we are going down at least some.

Entry 3820, SL 3840, TP 1 3800, TP 2 open ATM but to BE.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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