Price Action Trading - EUR/USD

Commentary on EURUSD H1 on some other threads ....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=267631

M i seeing things ??? I think i see a Double Top in the Gold Price with neck at 1410, and a similar double top for SP500 with the neck at 1300 ..... God !!! seems both are going to start crashing down pretty soon ....


Oppphss ... sorry. Wrong topics ...

Hi Ken,

As many know me being a swing/long term trader, I see EU plunging in the next 3-4 months if not sooner.
I'm also a PA trader only.

From 1.3800 to 1.3400-1.3450 for my first position.
400 pips with a SL at 1.4300. Risk/Reward of .8 to 1 and 2% risk.
My second position TP at 1.2900 for a R.R of 1.8 to 1 (this is just my humble opinion).

I see you sclap/intra also. I like your thread because I'm lousy on short term !!!

Pip it Up !

BigMike

Hi BigMike,

U set a record for being the 2nd on my journal
No worries, feel free to browse in anytime.

I usually don't put my scalping (or spot trades) charts online. Only the position trades (sometimes intra-day, sometimes a few days ... )But it is the scalping trades (those in minutes timeframe) which train my sentiment on gauging a position

I m of the same opinion as u that EUR/USD pair is due for a stone drop.
But the down-side wedge is indicating an upside correction is due as could be seen in the chart with the wedge structure decisively broken to the upside. It will move up testing previous support at the 3850 to 70 zone, maybe even slightly higher.

This turning point is important. If it turns earlier, even before touching the downtrend channel support at the top, it could be setting itself for an accelerated down move to try for 3700.

Happy Trading

New update for the EURUSD pair....

Pendant formation in progress ..... probably another 2 more up and down (if u zoom in at 1min or 10s chart that is ... ), it would move off upside .... same length as the previous move up prior to forming of the pendant ..... targeting the resistance at 3860 to 80.

This would form the 3rd wave upside. After that, it should form 2 more waves (one down : 4th, another up: 5th), before it comes down..... if it comes down that is

Seems like it didn't work out like it should Nah ..... i would be God if i could foresee all the moves ....hahah

That was a counter-trend move anyway, while it was unexpected, it should not be considered out-of-the-ordinary given that EUR is now very bearish .... having said that, EUR is still holding and forming a higher low, meaning that the Wave 3 has yet to be executed yet .... (looking at 3840)
Also we are nearing the Channel top ..... meaning that it could just fall off the cliff once more if there is insufficient buying interest to push it to resistance level mentioned earlier. Also traders don't like to buy into channel resistance .... unless there is a good reason .....

I m putting another Sell order at 3788 just in case. OCO with the previous order i mentioned.

So traders looking at going LONG should be VERY careful. As my friend used to say this, and i just like it so much it sticks: the market is rising in agony ....

The next move down would be swift and deadly. So Long go-ers, keep your TP tight and set your SL .....

Ok ... the lower short entry (3788) has been triggered and TP at 3755 hit for 33pips.

Now .... let's wait and see how the consolidation works out ....

No time to post chart now .... later.

Buy on Support now at 31.48, TP at 33.00, SL 29.20

Forgot to add that this sharp sell-off will be bought back shortly ....

Short from 3844, SL 3950, TL 3710

Target is 3700

Little early entry but given current market sentiment, should be alright.

Take Profit for both my GBPJPY orders to be shifted to 32.80

While the setup or price action is still bullish, the trendline has been broken.

Long position must reduce the TP to reduce risk. The sharp sell-off would be bought back eventually, I believe over the course of next-week's first 3 days.

I am aware that my first order was entered at 33.28, and 2nd order at 31.48.
TP at 32.80 would be a loss anyway for the 1st order. But now is more a reduction in loss strategy for the 1st order. The 2nd order would take care of the profit.

I M BACK

Long while that i haven't had the opportunity to update this part of my forum since the Jap earthquake and nuke crisis ....

No .... it wasn't because i went to Jpn to help out .... I probably would be more trouble than help i guess ....

I was in a transition phase of my life a few days back. Job change .... change my labtop too ..... lots of password including the access to this one got screwed ....

But i m back now once again and i learnt a few good things too .... i have had been trading quite a while ... but this is the one rare occasion where i traded thru a natural disaster ..... i have not got down to counting the pip loss from my positions that i have taken previously .... it should be heavy no doubt .... but i learnt my lesson. Trends could change and might change under such extreme duress .... better to exit a position and stay on the sidelines than assume then the existing trend should hold.

Resistance at previous high should be strong at 4275. While trend is bullish, it is not likely to break at 1st pass. I have put a Fibonacci retracement assuming that the price would stop around 4275. I expect at least a 23.6% retracement minimally. This correspond to a congestion zone as can be seen at 3846 to 4000.

I would put a short position at 4260. Stop loss at 4350 (90pips). Round number shouldn't be used as stop loss. That level is usually where over-shoots might target before reversing. Take profit at top zone of congestion area targeting 1.4000 (260pips) also round number where short sellers are likely to target before taking profit.

Summary of Trades so far as the name suggests ....

Didn't do any trades for quite a while after these 2 losses in GBPJPY pair for -228pips and -408pips. Nah .... i didn't crash out due to the losses. Of course that was a wakeup call ....

Week ending 26 Feb : +179pips (9 Trades, Win Ratio: 100%)
Week ending 4 Mar: -12pips (7 Trades, Win Ratio: 57%)
Week ending 11 Mar: +171pips (6 Trades, Win Ratio: 83%)
Week ending 18 Mar: -636pips (2 Trades, Win Ratio: 0%)

In future, i would be focusing back onto solely EURUSD only. As i am not sure with my new job would i still have as much time to review thru different market pairs as i have in the past.

2 Lower highs formed at 4213 & almost formed at 4198. Confirmed when support breaks at 4179. Short now at 4184, SL 4199 and TP 4173

This is selling into retracement only. Target in M5 before 23.6% retracement which correspond with support zone.

Dead .... -15pips.

Things seldom progress to expectation.

I started off with the expectation that I would do both spot trades and position trades, with just posting my positions on the forum. In seems like when i m seriously into the spot trades, there never is time to look at positioning.

And of course, recently i have been a little out-of-touch with the market also. That cannot be denied.

But i would be doing a revamp of what i would do on this segment of my forum page ..... instead of putting in my trades, I would be putting in my sentiment for the market current hour / min based on price action and fundamental.

Feel free to comment

Daily Chart:
The price action is still rather bullish with higher lows formed at 2637, 2867, 3456, with the upside channel still very valid at the moment. However if we look at the long term (red-dash line), we are coming into the resistance of the long-term trend line.

It also correspond to previous high resistance at 4275 where market is testing now, 2nd time testing (which is yesterday). The resistance of this level is significant, and is not expected to break so easily without a 3rd testing which can only occur with retracement.

Hourly Chart:
We can see an accelerated upside move, stuck at top-side resistance 4275, with higher lows formed at 3530, 3750 and accelerated point at 3870.

Taking Fibonacci from 2 swing lows, we can see that 4057 is likely to hold as support for this retracement, it is also likely to correspond to the accelerated trendline. So expect a bounce upside from this level. Shorting down from this level should expect price to move upside against this position.

Critical support is at 4040. After the bounce upside from 4057, if a lower high is formed, be prepared for a further down move breaking the accelerated upside trendline to 3980 first then 3920 back to the main trend line.

For the upside bounce, look for direction change at 4140, 4180. Once it hit 4200, it is likely to try upside. If after the turn, price comes back down to 4057, this support is likely to break, giving further downside.

For short-term intra-day positions, a long position is possible.

Best Long at 4060, with Stop Loss at 3980 (the previous low). TP target at 4135, safer at 4123.

Observe the price action for signal of a rebounce upside if 4060 is not reached. If price move above 4111, this position should not be taken as the ship has sailed as currently the price is already at support zone from 4075 - 4050. There is always the likelihood that it will not reach the target support mentioned previously at 4057.

Stop Loss if set too tight at 4040 might be detrimental for the position since price action is likely to form a significant lower high before a further down move. But it cannot be ruled out that a spike downside before it bounce up cannot occur.

I think 4085 is a good entry point for Long position as mentioned earlier if Price re-test down-side support 4079 or 4076 and is rejected.

Of course, we have to let the price move a little further down first before putting the position in. Otherwise, the entry could be premature.

Forgot to mention that a premature entry could result in holding onto a position that has moved against you .... and biting the fingernail in agony

Another addition ..... look out for the possible formation of an inverted H&S, which would be confirmed with a break upside at 4087.

Almost there ... Already form a higher high over 4088. But mind you, the down trend might and may not be over. Don't get Long trigger happy.

Target of 4123 / 35 is not hit yet. Can't be reached in 1 step. Lookout for a retracement .... maybe to 4088 before the nex step upside .... tat should give ~ 50% retracement ...