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vsa with Malcolm

  • #15,701
  • Mar 10, 2011 10:08am Mar 10, 2011 10:08am
Hi all VSA masters, like Malcolm, Dr. G, HiddenGap, Intel, Sono, ...

Do you guys got a chance to short gbp and eur today? If not, it doesn't matter. I means hinder sight is OK. It seems to me that the signs of strength are here and there today, BUT the result is supply overwhelm demand.

cheers in advance
polomine
  • #15,702
  • Mar 10, 2011 10:09am Mar 10, 2011 10:09am
Quoting Intel
M15 is looking good for a setup. Need a good quality ND tho. I dont trade this pair so I dont know it's personality.

Why do we call it 'Loony'?
Because that is the name of our $1 coin here in Canada...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,703
  • Mar 10, 2011 10:09am Mar 10, 2011 10:09am
Quoting Intel
M15 is looking good for a setup. Need a good quality ND tho. I dont trade this pair so I dont know it's personality.

Why do we call it 'Loony'?
There is a loon on it. A very common bird here who wakes you up on every camping trip to the lake.
  • #15,704
  • Mar 10, 2011 10:09am Mar 10, 2011 10:09am
Quoting Intel
M15 is looking good for a setup. Need a good quality ND tho. I dont trade this pair so I dont know it's personality.

Why do we call it 'Loony'?
Something to do with the Canadian coins having a "Loon" bird on one of the faces i believe.
  • #15,705
  • Mar 10, 2011 10:12am Mar 10, 2011 10:12am
After the fact I know. Just my thoughts on the recent weakness.

1. UV/UW Up, also on ECB Press Conference/Unemployment Claims
2. UV again, spread cuts in half, also NFP
3. Nice 2 bar reversal on increased volume
4. Attempted test of NFP bar, failed.

I do agree that the volume on this leg down is horribly low!
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  • #15,706
  • Mar 10, 2011 10:16am Mar 10, 2011 10:16am
Quoting Intel
M15 is looking good for a setup. Need a good quality ND tho.
Does that qualify for you? Probably bit wide a spread.
  • #15,707
  • Mar 10, 2011 10:18am Mar 10, 2011 10:18am
EU 15M Test successful for dearth of supply/seller at weekly S1 pivot. Note 2nd from right most test bar has lower TA than preceding six bars.
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  • #15,708
  • Mar 10, 2011 10:20am Mar 10, 2011 10:20am
Quoting Intel
I would rather stab my eyes with a sharp stick. But thanks for the advice
Hopefully you feel a little better about trendlines ... they can work wonders!
  • #15,709
  • Mar 10, 2011 10:45am Mar 10, 2011 10:45am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Damn VSA doesn't work. Back to HARD SHYT it is then
Tom said not to buy at the bottom, but wait for the market to drift up then come back down into the area of stopping on low volume, the lower the better.

You should know that accumulation takes time, and they will mark the market down to buy more, even shake weak holder.

It also hasn't even made two higher lows and no supply bar.
I wouldn't buy into bearish market. It would whipsaw you around.
  • #15,710
  • Mar 10, 2011 10:58am Mar 10, 2011 10:58am
Nice 15 min short set-up on oil today after LO... High vol downbar closing on it's low giving a possible trigger (green line). A short time later a nice low volume test (red line) of the trigger closing on it's low. Also the entry was below today's developing and the 3/8 and 3/9/2011 POC's.

This one would have been a R:R dream
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,711
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:00am Mar 10, 2011 11:00am
Not to cloud the thread with fundies, but Spain just announced (gov't "did the math") that recapitalizing their banks will need 15 billion euros. Yeah right. Their 2010 GDP was supposed to be about 1,300 billion euros, but the real estate/construction industry alone represented 15%-20% before it collapsed alongside their country debt of 2,166 billion or 153% of GDP. On the real estate side, apartments on the books for $2 million can't be sold for $350K. Overall impact will be at least 70 billion, but many beyond that are owned to home-flippers/"investors" elsewhere in Europe, with that debt on their books.

And all this from an entity that apparently can't print money to solve their problems. Just food for thought. Older/general article here.

Mark March 25 (a Friday - ) - that's when the banks are due to present their plans.

P.S. - Congrats to any longers from the 1.379 area - remember, bank early, bank often. 1.3822 now closing with a good H1 bar. Closed my short of earlier.
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  • #15,712
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:30am Mar 10, 2011 11:30am
Quiz: Look at EUR/USD chart and tell me "What did I miss here ???"

I will answer later.


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  • #15,713
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:33am Mar 10, 2011 11:33am
Quoting foxybunny
Quiz: Look at EUR/USD chart and tell me "What did I miss here ???"

I will answer later.


Attachment
That this long candle wasn't all buying?
  • #15,714
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:39am Mar 10, 2011 11:39am
Quoting foxybunny
Quiz: Look at EUR/USD chart and tell me "What did I miss here ???"

I will answer later.


Attachment
I guess that saying that if all that volume was buying then the next bar shouldn't be down...

I don't watch 1hr charts very much but man oh man what a beautiful low volume test of that highest volume trigger bar's close... Gorgeous!
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,715
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:40am Mar 10, 2011 11:40am
Either your TP or your short order .

Quoting foxybunny
Quiz: Look at EUR/USD chart and tell me "What did I miss here ???"

I will answer later.


Attachment
  • #15,716
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:47am Mar 10, 2011 11:47am
Quoting foxybunny
Quiz: Look at EUR/USD chart and tell me "What did I miss here ???"

I will answer later.


Attachment
Supply coming in? Sellers always appear on an up move with high Volume?
Le singe est dans l'arbre
  • #15,717
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:49am Mar 10, 2011 11:49am
Quoting foxybunny
Quiz: Look at EUR/USD chart and tell me "What did I miss here ???"

I will answer later.


Attachment
The other thing that I might see on there is that after the high vol up bar the next bar was not only down but it first made a higher high... hidden test of sorts I think they may call this
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,718
  • Edited 12:14pm Mar 10, 2011 11:50am | Edited 12:14pm
[quote=foxybunny;4461714]Quiz: Look at EUR/USD chart and tell me "What did I miss here ???"

I will answer later.

Newbie explanation:
High volume wide spread up bar pushing through resistance to brake it=effort without result due to lower volume ND bar with HH (like a doji, hidden up-thrust bar) )Next red one is wide spread bar closing on the lows and the low and the close is lower than the previous bar this is a countermanding signal=SOW
  • #15,719
  • Edited 12:39pm Mar 10, 2011 12:07pm | Edited 12:39pm
I'm taking the EU short here on the most recent weak 1H bar. With weakness in the back ground new weak signals dictate further selling. This last hourly bar is weak because it had a higher high and lower close on lower TA than the preceding bar. The time of day is a factor here with European and UK prop traders gone home for dinner and eastern time zone traders coming back from lunch then obvious signals often yield follow through. There is a 30 pip stop and 60 pip take profit for an intended 2 to 1 r:r ratio. Thanks for reading and as always any comments are warmly appreciated.
***************************************
No, I'm wrong. I see on a 15M chart some latent strength manifesting. The failed reversal bar and HH-LC hourly bar are not enough to convince the lunch time bigs to sell, so I'm out with 1 pip. Better safe than sorry.
*************************************
Well, darn. I was wrong about being wrong. Doh! Slaps self on forehead. As I recall my trade plan says something about be committed to my stop loss and take profit. More self hypnosis and brain wave entrainment to instill automatic obedience to the speculation business plan are thus indicated. There is work to be done. BBL.
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  • #15,720
  • Mar 10, 2011 12:17pm Mar 10, 2011 12:17pm
Agree with you rbumbalough; I wasn't paying proper attention, but that's a good & prominent pin bar up into the trendline and noticeable volume sellers on M5 giving it a noticeable rejection. Still tradeable IMHO if it comes up into the wick area or just a tad below it; SL a tight one around the blue TL.

Volume is of course falling off as the afternoon goes on, and we are aligning with S&P. I'd be watching for what happens if it gets to the current blue TL just below; given current market sentiment and how much we've fallen, tendency is to the downside, and lots more testing.

P.S. Polomine - I have to still fully implement your BetterVolume e-mail alert system - I think it will be worth gold.
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