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vsa with Malcolm

  • #15,641
  • Mar 10, 2011 6:05am Mar 10, 2011 6:05am
Quoting 1pipperhour
I find those to be very rare. You will not earn money with that, except if you are trading 10 or 20 lots at the time.

I just took another snapshot of a 5 min. Trend is down. Candle with volume almost looks like nd. So enter at break the low. Right? It broke the low. We are aware that it can possibly test the .3810 area. So enter a trade for a few pips. Look what happend. It's going up for a few pips instead . Ok, ok it looks like a shake out, yes, but nd says that may be it's not . Another false signal.

Damn VSA doesn't work. Back to...
HMMMMMM this is my chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,642
  • Mar 10, 2011 6:07am Mar 10, 2011 6:07am
Quoting 1pipperhour
I don't know how some people can trade 5 min.

This happend just now.

On 5 min there was ns. So by the rules you should enter at the break of ns high. So it happend. It broke the high by 1 pip . So you should be in a trade.

On 15 min almost exact time it gave nd. And what happend? It really moved down about 20 pips.

What to do?
There is a big difference between knowing the VSA bars and knowing VSA. There is no reliable entry there. If you enter on NSs per se, you'll go broke very quickly.
  • #15,643
  • Mar 10, 2011 6:07am Mar 10, 2011 6:07am
Quoting amletit
HMMMMMM this is my chart.
My volume looks very similar to Liam's. Almost the same.
  • #15,644
  • Mar 10, 2011 6:14am Mar 10, 2011 6:14am
Quoting Intel
There is a big difference between knowing the VSA bars and knowing VSA. There is no reliable entry there. If you enter on NSs per se, you'll go broke very quickly.
True. There was major sign of strength - stopping volume. After that mixed signs of strength and weakness. But one of the set ups worked as I see. Next one didn't.
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  • #15,645
  • Mar 10, 2011 6:18am Mar 10, 2011 6:18am
Quoting pres78
I also entered EU long at 3825 off a test of a 5min trigger level just before LO... would have preferred to see more pull away first before the test and price was still under Hull and PAL so it was a risky entry.

Figured we were due for some retrace at least since pre LO moved basically the full ADR.

SL at 3800, TP 1 for 3850 (hit, barely) and TP 2 open for now... this is a free trade now with lot 1 locked in.

No time for charts, off to work.
Ah there we go... this is more of what we see quite often after a high vol bar giving triggers... move away from it and now back down to test... In fact we just got another 2 tests of that trigger level.

The days low is a level that I mentioned at the start of this week as wanting to see a retrace into...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,646
  • Mar 10, 2011 6:18am Mar 10, 2011 6:18am
Quoting 1pipperhour
My volume looks very similar to Liam's. Almost the same.
Hmmm i'm starting to wonder about dukascopy's volumes reliability...
  • #15,647
  • Mar 10, 2011 7:27am Mar 10, 2011 7:27am
This whole EU move back towards 3800 is on dropping off volume leading into US news...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,648
  • Edited 7:47am Mar 10, 2011 7:35am | Edited 7:47am
Quoting amletit
I personally enter on 5 mins only when 15 min is not in contrast (or better if it tells the same story).
Try tick based bars rather than time based bars. It works good with instruments that have both tick activity and volume like the futures contracts with the caveat that one need still monitor multiple charts. I use 144 377 987 and 2515 tick charts in an attempt to wrap my mind around determining the dominate influence in a market.

I'm at my office and here I don't have access to the Infinity AT platform with the tick charts, so I'll just us the MT4. Here's a two hour per bar chart. EU is moving down on low volume indicating the down move is not being opposed by those that matter. Big capital (SM) is not supporting EU here. Nor are they supporting Silver, Copper, Crude or most risk assets. 10 Year bonds are bid as is the DXY. Indexes are offered. This looks to be a risk aversion day.

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx


Good trading and keep those stops tight.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_2h_3-10-11.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #15,649
  • Mar 10, 2011 7:40am Mar 10, 2011 7:40am
Quoting pres78
Ah there we go... this is more of what we see quite often after a high vol bar giving triggers... move away from it and now back down to test... In fact we just got another 2 tests of that trigger level.

The days low is a level that I mentioned at the start of this week as wanting to see a retrace into...
Well we tested that level again, moved up created a LH, fell off towards 3800 on reduced 15min vol, US news printed worse than forcasted and I was waiting to see if it would cause a spring upwards... it went back to my entry, struggled so I got out of lot 2 at BE as I just don't like the EU trading today.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,650
  • Mar 10, 2011 7:40am Mar 10, 2011 7:40am
Quoting pres78
This whole EU move back towards 3800 is on dropping off volume leading into US news...
The news is not that good for EU..
T vol reading tell me..it gona bounce.. let's see


Sonic
  • #15,651
  • Mar 10, 2011 7:47am Mar 10, 2011 7:47am
Quoting sonicdeejay
The news is not that good for EU..
T vol reading tell me..it gona bounce.. let's see


Sonic
US news is tricky as it can go either way as it all depends on whether they use the news to go risk on or off... US stock markets not open yet so we will have to see what happens...

Possible SO forming on 5min will wait for test or NS after strength in the test bars trigger before considering going long again.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,652
  • Mar 10, 2011 7:48am Mar 10, 2011 7:48am
Looks like liquidation of EUR longs is at work as sovereign debt woes work their way back to center-stage.
  • #15,653
  • Mar 10, 2011 7:52am Mar 10, 2011 7:52am
Quoting Flynchenberg
Looks like liquidation of EUR longs is at work as sovereign debt woes work their way back to center-stage.
Looks more like a possible shake out to me currently will have to see how the next bars play out... Last 3 - 5 min bars for me look like news bar indecision, increased vol downbar closing well off it's lows without spread to match vol, further increased downbar again closing well off it's lows again looking very much like a SO... See if the bottom of the SO is taken out or if we pull up and then drop down to test it for a long.

Let's see if the volume was sellers trying to absorb the 3800 demand or buyers taking back control...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,654
  • Mar 10, 2011 8:01am Mar 10, 2011 8:01am
Quoting ewokuk
sold 3847, 50-65 should be strong resistance, and that last 5min bar on much higher vol looks upthrusty to me, this 15 could turn into some sort of upthrust now?

either way, sold and stop at +1 now
A very smart move.. good trading...
  • #15,655
  • Mar 10, 2011 8:01am Mar 10, 2011 8:01am
Long triggered. Hope volumes are faithful
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  • #15,656
  • Mar 10, 2011 8:02am Mar 10, 2011 8:02am
Quoting ewokuk
sold 3847, 50-65 should be strong resistance, and that last 5min bar on much higher vol looks upthrusty to me, this 15 could turn into some sort of upthrust now?

either way, sold and stop at +1 now
Did you close out with some profit or are you still in?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,657
  • Mar 10, 2011 8:04am Mar 10, 2011 8:04am
Here's the EU 1H most recent bar as RUT or SO and GCJ11 bouncing up from support/demand coming in. Looks like the bigs are bargain shopping maybe.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GCJ11_3-10-11.png Size: 12 KB
  • #15,658
  • Mar 10, 2011 8:06am Mar 10, 2011 8:06am
There was NS entry (but too soon as no signs of strength after the SO) on the EU 5 min but too risky for me ATM... will wait to see if we get a retrace into 3810 for a test of the high vol trigger bar after this move up off the SO / selling climax that it appears we have seen on the 5 and 15 min charts... No close below 3800 even on that ultra high volume and then upbars showing buyers came in on that volume.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,659
  • Mar 10, 2011 8:06am Mar 10, 2011 8:06am
Quoting amletit
Long triggered. Hope volumes are faithful
That's a good entry. Nice work.
  • #15,660
  • Mar 10, 2011 8:11am Mar 10, 2011 8:11am
Quoting 1pipperhour
True. There was major sign of strength - stopping volume. After that mixed signs of strength and weakness. But one of the set ups worked as I see. Next one didn't.
Therein lies the problem, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. You need to see a setup of sorts. Something you're confident in. It doesn't have to be a 5 or 6 bar setup, just as long as you can see a repeatable pattern to trade.
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