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vsa with Malcolm

  • #15,621
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:10am Mar 10, 2011 2:10am
was portugal not spain, nobodys bothered about portugal, spain a different matter
  • #15,622
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:23am Mar 10, 2011 2:23am
Quoting ewokuk
was portugal not spain, nobodys bothered about portugal, spain a different matter
... it was bugging me, so I had to find it: it was Fitch downgrading Spain to credit watch - I remember it, as it came out 5:30 EU time - either it snuck buy & didn't get a proper reaction, or this is the gravy, and kitchen sink! Different agencies, piling on with ratings ... kind of interesting to read their guidelines on wiki, but won't get into that here.
  • #15,623
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:42am Mar 10, 2011 2:42am
OK just to show I'm not always boring I just took this trade and thought I'd share it with you all. I don't like catching knives but I'll explain my reasons for jumping in.

The ATR is around 130 pips, and we've seen almost that in only the asia session, on extremely low volume. Certainly far too low for the spread of the bar. On the 5 minute we've seen a selling climax, shakeout and then I entered on the hidden test. (entry where the crosshairs is)

I'm also jumping in on the basis of strength in the background on higher timeframes as explained previously.

My SL is tight just under 1.38. TP1 is daily POC at 1.3865 - I'll watch PA around there.

Edit: I've added the 12 hour chart that Malc favours (starting at 09.00 GMT). It shows the massive wide spread on no volume clearly.
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,624
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:45am Mar 10, 2011 2:45am
Quoting Steve Gill
OK just to show I'm not always boring I just took this trade and thought I'd share it with you all. I don't like catching knives but I'll explain my reasons for jumping in.

The ATR is around 130 pips, and we've seen almost that in only the asia session, on extremely low volume. Certainly far too low for the spread of the bar. On the 5 minute we've seen a selling climax, shakeout and then I entered on the hidden test. (entry where the crosshairs is)

I'm also jumping in on the basis of strength in the background on higher timeframes as explained...
TP?
  • #15,625
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:47am Mar 10, 2011 2:47am
Quoting PipPipPip
TP?
I've edited my post above
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,626
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:54am Mar 10, 2011 2:54am
Quoting Steve Gill
OK just to show I'm not always boring I just took this trade and thought I'd share it with you all. I don't like catching knives but I'll explain my reasons for jumping in.

The ATR is around 130 pips, and we've seen almost that in only the asia session, on extremely low volume. Certainly far too low for the spread of the bar. On the 5 minute we've seen a selling climax, shakeout and then I entered on the hidden test. (entry where the crosshairs is)

My SL is tight just under 1.38. TP1 is daily POC at 1.3865 - I'll watch PA around there.
I also got in on this, at least someone has some of the same reasonings as me.
Le singe est dans l'arbre
  • #15,627
  • Mar 10, 2011 3:16am Mar 10, 2011 3:16am
Expected sellers up towards the trendline, and a reversal down ... looking for a bounce upwards though around here & touch of TL, and a ND possibility. Not sure if BoE will have any impact on euro - way more confusing than how the euro will react is what the BoE will have to say, with it's dyslexic board, and the impact to sterling - not touching that until it's limits are defined.
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  • #15,628
  • Mar 10, 2011 3:27am Mar 10, 2011 3:27am
Quoting Steve Gill
...On the 5 minute we've seen a selling climax, shakeout and then I entered on the hidden test. (entry where the crosshairs is)...
Thanks for that confirmation. I got in a bit higher but close. I liked that hidden test because it tested the high volume stopping bar, and relative to the other tests it looked the best. I look at minor shakeouts as tests but not in the strict sense of a test, just to see less and less volume each time.
  • #15,629
  • Mar 10, 2011 3:33am Mar 10, 2011 3:33am
I have moved my stop to B/E. Capital preservation is number 1, if price drops back down and stops me out I'll re-evaluate my position.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,630
  • Mar 10, 2011 3:42am Mar 10, 2011 3:42am
Quoting Scrat
nice 15 min candles... we just reached feb close, 3806
and the 0.784 fibo retracement of the move from 3745.
  • #15,631
  • Mar 10, 2011 4:08am Mar 10, 2011 4:08am
5min:Minor weakness.. minor shakeout in that area..diminishing vol very narrow bars..no selling pressure? so a breakout to the upside??
  • #15,632
  • Mar 10, 2011 4:10am Mar 10, 2011 4:10am
Quoting FrankSA
5min:Minor weakness.. minor shakeout in that area..diminishing vol very narrow bars..no selling pressure? so a breakout to the upside??
Minor strength then?
  • #15,633
  • Mar 10, 2011 4:15am Mar 10, 2011 4:15am
sold 3847, 50-65 should be strong resistance, and that last 5min bar on much higher vol looks upthrusty to me, this 15 could turn into some sort of upthrust now?

either way, sold and stop at +1 now
  • #15,634
  • Mar 10, 2011 4:51am Mar 10, 2011 4:51am
I also entered EU long at 3825 off a test of a 5min trigger level just before LO... would have preferred to see more pull away first before the test and price was still under Hull and PAL so it was a risky entry.

Figured we were due for some retrace at least since pre LO moved basically the full ADR.

SL at 3800, TP 1 for 3850 (hit, barely) and TP 2 open for now... this is a free trade now with lot 1 locked in.

No time for charts, off to work.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,635
  • Mar 10, 2011 5:18am Mar 10, 2011 5:18am
Quoting ewokuk
sold 3847, 50-65 should be strong resistance, and that last 5min bar on much higher vol looks upthrusty to me, this 15 could turn into some sort of upthrust now?...
Lot of supply hit that bar, but look how it was tested at the base with relatively low volume on that bar.. the market didn't like the breakout simply because they were still accumulating..

The market is struggling to go up because there was very high volume on the stopping vol reversal bar... when the supply has been mopped up it should take the run...just some thoughts..
  • #15,636
  • Mar 10, 2011 5:29am Mar 10, 2011 5:29am
I don't know how some people can trade 5 min.

This happend just now.

On 5 min there was ns. So by the rules you should enter at the break of ns high. So it happend. It broke the high by 1 pip . So you should be in a trade.

On 15 min almost exact time it gave nd. And what happend? It really moved down about 20 pips.

What to do?
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  • #15,637
  • Mar 10, 2011 5:46am Mar 10, 2011 5:46am
Quoting 1pipperhour
I don't know how some people can trade 5 min.

This happend just now.

On 5 min there was ns. So by the rules you should enter at the break of ns high. So it happend. It broke the high by 1 pip . So you should be in a trade.

On 15 min almost exact time it gave nd. And what happend? It really moved down about 20 pips.

What to do?
I read those as false signals, or, not strong enough NDs & NSs, due to the volume being not low enough.

I've also learned not to trust 5M charts (for NS & ND), because they often contain major trickery - I find 4M and 3M to be much better (4M because hidden buying & selling or lack of takes place in the last minute of a 5 minute bar, so, a 4M chart parses that out better)

I did read a ND, but on a 4M chart, and indeed down she went.

Frankly, the PA is stupidly annoying. It's a matter of banking early and banking often in this assinine wolf market - 30 pips is my general rule, and then let the rest ride: in this case, I'm about to get stopped out at BE for the remainder.

I am expecting the market to get us back down to 1.38 and 1.379 - there are probably more offers to pick up there. Note that US futures are in the crapper, and, if the China & Spain news is looked at and risk is off, we could likely be going lower in EU. The H4's not looking too promising, but I think this hour close is crucial. If either of the 2 US news items is good, EU will likely test lower.
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  • #15,638
  • Mar 10, 2011 5:53am Mar 10, 2011 5:53am
Quoting 1pipperhour
I don't know how some people can trade 5 min.

This happend just now.

On 5 min there was ns. So by the rules you should enter at the break of ns high. So it happend. It broke the high by 1 pip . So you should be in a trade.

On 15 min almost exact time it gave nd. And what happend? It really moved down about 20 pips.

What to do?
I personally enter on 5 mins only when 15 min is not in contrast (or better if it tells the same story).
  • #15,639
  • Mar 10, 2011 6:00am Mar 10, 2011 6:00am
Quoting amletit
I personally enter on 5 mins only when 15 min is not in contrast (or better if it tells the same story).
I find those to be very rare. You will not earn money with that, except if you are trading 10 or 20 lots at the time.

I just took another snapshot of a 5 min. Trend is down. Candle with volume almost looks like nd. So enter at break the low. Right? It broke the low. We are aware that it can possibly test the .3810 area. So enter a trade for a few pips. Look what happend. It's going up for a few pips instead . Ok, ok it looks like a shake out, yes, but nd says that may be it's not . Another false signal.

Damn VSA doesn't work. Back to HARD SHYT it is then
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  • #15,640
  • Mar 10, 2011 6:01am Mar 10, 2011 6:01am
It was probably just testing the close of the high volume bar?
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