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  • #15,601
  • Mar 9, 2011 4:57pm Mar 9, 2011 4:57pm
hello friends: Copper looks interesting. Stopping volume came in at support. The HGK1 daily and 2 hour are attached. Best and Good.
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  • #15,602
  • Mar 9, 2011 5:09pm Mar 9, 2011 5:09pm
Quoting rbumbalough
hello friends: Copper looks interesting. Stopping volume came in at support. The HGK1 daily and 2 hour are attached. Best and Good.
Pretty high volume relatively speaking on that 2 hour. And as you said the close is a good bit off the low. The next bar closes in the mid so the on very low volume and the next bar is up closing on the high on almost no volume(probably due to time of day I guess?) But either way the bar closing on it's high failed to make a higher high than the previous bar even though it closed on its high which implies weakness or if anything hesitation.

Idk if it could be classified as stopping volume persay because in Tom's book stopping volume is usually a bar that closes on the high. But I don't think classifications really matter and are arbitrary. What that bar definitely shows is some buyers coming into the market which given its position on the daily chart makes sense.

So some definite strength saw on that high volume bar but definitely no confirmation just yet.

That's my simple interpretation...
  • #15,603
  • Mar 9, 2011 5:42pm Mar 9, 2011 5:42pm
Quoting Steve Gill
I'm waiting for the US market to close so I can bore you to tears with my summary charts and predictions for tomorrow
I had a choice between posting these charts or watching a tv programme about attractive models....hence the delay in posting the charts lol

GU analysis attached. I'm thinking the testing yesterday on low volume and the effort to rise today shows the SM's intentions, although they were met with supply today and withdrew. I believe they are now waiting for the news tomorrow (BoE interest rate, and US unemployment claims) which could see them shoot the market up and absorb the selling seen today (which based on the volume wasn't a lot) or use the news to shakeout the (limited) supply seen today. Treacherous trading conditions for tomorrow I feel, although it will be interesting to see where London takes the market up to the BoE rate decision at 12:00 GMT. I suspect ranging again on very low volume.

Note: my chart is new favourite again, 8 hour starting at 06.00 so the first bar gives Europe and London until 2pm, then the second bar gives the US session and the final bar is Asia.
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,604
  • Mar 9, 2011 5:48pm Mar 9, 2011 5:48pm
Quoting Steve Gill
I had a choice between posting these charts or watching a tv programme about attractive models....hence the delay in posting the charts lol

GU analysis attached. I'm thinking the testing yesterday on low volume and the effort to rise today shows the SM's intentions, although they were met with supply today and withdrew. I believe they are now waiting for the news tomorrow (BoE interest rate, and US unemployment claims) which could see them shoot the market up and absorb the selling seen today (which based on the volume wasn't a lot) or use...
You can really see the wedge I mentioned in an ealier post on that 8hr charts last 3 bars... price is coiling and condensing into a tight point which usually leads to a nice BO.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,605
  • Mar 9, 2011 5:54pm Mar 9, 2011 5:54pm
EU is all over the place. Although we have long term SOS in the background (seen last week and before) today appears to have been a day off for the SM lol - volume is very low and although like GU we saw an effort to rise which met with some supply, the next bar didn't attempt to test any lows (its low was a lot higher than previous bar) and it was a clear up bar but on even lower volume, narrower spread - no demand.

Maybe they are waiting for news, US unemployment figures tomorrow?

I see this no demand as not being a particularly strong sign of weakness, more as a SM is withdrawing its interest in the upside temporarily for some reason.

Again I'll be watching for action around the recent POCs tomorrow. These charts aren't screaming a clear direction for me yet.

As always if anyone has any comments on my charts or disagrees with what I've written, feel free to post
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  • #15,606
  • Mar 9, 2011 5:56pm Mar 9, 2011 5:56pm
EU biggest level of interest leading into LO and where I would love to see a long set-up in is 3895-3905...

DPP, Weekly Pivot Point, 3/9/11 POC, 3/8/11 POC and today's opening price all fall within this zone... Lots of volume action in and around here so it could serve as a nice spring board...

If Asia takes it down then I would also be interested in a short set-up which develops off this same zone.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,607
  • Edited 6:00pm Mar 9, 2011 5:57pm | Edited 6:00pm
Quoting pres78
You can really see the wedge I mentioned in an ealier post on that 8hr charts last 3 bars... price is coiling and condensing into a tight point which usually leads to a nice BO.
Agreed, and I'm presuming a breakout would tend to follow the background trend which in this case would be strength and upwards we go?

I'm not very familiar with wedges and breakouts so I appreciate any advice here.

The only alternative would be for the breakout to become a shakeout - but IMHO we've not seen enough supply to warrant a shakeout.

Hopefully we'll find out tomorrow

Edit: we're talking about GU (sorry I'm tired and was replying about EU above) - I think for a breakout a shakeout would be in order as the longer timeframe background is strength, but we have seen pesky supply around 1.63 that deserves a good shake
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,608
  • Mar 9, 2011 6:01pm Mar 9, 2011 6:01pm
Quoting Steve Gill
Agreed, and I'm presuming a breakout would tend to follow the background trend which in this case would be strength and upwards we go?

I'm not very familiar with wedges and breakouts so I appreciate any advice here.

The only alternative would be for the breakout to become a shakeout - but IMHO we've not seen enough supply to warrant a shakeout.

Hopefully we'll find out tomorrow
Normally we see price range into a channel pattern, bull flag, bear flag etc... when price comes to a tight point as we are seeing now price has to normally BO either up or down as the wedge has run out of room. As with anything this does not always play out as expected.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,609
  • Mar 9, 2011 6:04pm Mar 9, 2011 6:04pm
GU biggest area of interest for tommorow sits at 6200-6190 which played big roles today in many trades...

Yesterday's POC (big surprise), today's open and the DPP all fall in this general zone.

6240 is also a tough resistance level that I am watching intently.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,610
  • Mar 9, 2011 8:28pm Mar 9, 2011 8:28pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
Yes. I saw it testing Feb 2nd high but the volume confused me . So it seems you got to have e-signal or similar to use vsa analysis

Edit: So yes Steve. It is absolutely bullish. I agree with you . Can I now be your best friend also?



Hi 1pipperhour,

Just checking whether you also got similar vol as my chart below for EU Wed 9-Mar ?

My Wed 9-Mar has high vol similar to Tue 8-Mar.
Noticed that 9-Mar is now a Doji, low of 1.3855.
Look at this low compared to 8-Mar low 1.3862 and 2-Feb low 1.3861, this is like a Double Testing on Daily.
Double Ah-ha!!

With yesterday's Doji, want today's price to clear up 1.3930-1.3940 high of Doji, and then Test this area as a Low if there is further Strength.

Daily Vol is well above avg like last 2 days, nothing special, just possible buying and the longs liquidating at the same time.


I am using Alpari Demo, even though many people here said vol on this is not reliable and very bad, so far I still find it workable.
If vol is consistently good, that is workable.
If vol is consistently bad, and you know it, that is also workable.

Most here mentioned that your FXCM vol is more reliable, still workable.

Basically I don't follow the exact vol desc like "ND" that must have vol that is smaller than previous 2 bars.
Reason is that Alpari's Vol might not show this lower vol all the time for "ND", "NS", etc.

I just look at the overall vol, and the vol at the same price levels that happened in the past to compare volume at important S/R level.


As not all of us can get eSignal or TradeGuider, just make-do with what we have for now.

When Daily Vol seem confusing, or not obvious, just drill down to H1 and M15 for other vol comparison, AND concentrate on just the vol that MAKES SENSE or STANDS OUT on the Daily(and other time frames) in comparing price to S/R.

Remember where price is to S/R or how price reacts there is still important.

This will lessen the confusion of vol reading.


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  • #15,611
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:20pm Mar 9, 2011 9:20pm
Sometimes the payoff on a ND is late, but the travel distance is just unpredictable - I actually caught this on a 4M chartl my entry was right around the trendline - exited first TP at 15 pips, and think we'll get another 15 ... I assume this is due to the China numbers - you just never know how far it'll go, lol! Pretty much undid the NY afternoon session and all of Asia so far!
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  • #15,612
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:29pm Mar 9, 2011 9:29pm
Quoting Beljevina
Sometimes the payoff on a ND is late, but the travel distance is just unpredictable - I actually caught this on a 4M chartl my entry was right around the trendline - exited first TP at 15 pips, and think we'll get another 15 ... I assume this is due to the China numbers - you just never know how far it'll go, lol! Pretty much undid the NY afternoon session and all of Asia so far!
I wouldn't be shorting this move. this too me looks like a shakeout on really meaningless news, especially with the New Year celebrations taken into account.
  • #15,613
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:38pm Mar 9, 2011 9:38pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
I wouldn't be shorting this move. this too me looks like a shakeout on really meaningless news, especially with the New Year celebrations taken into account.
I agree that the Asia session is largely meaningless, but a signal is a signal and should be traded ... I do it all the time - 25 pips is 25 pips. I am happy to be long and short. I am in fact quite certain we will see both the low and high of NY (or very close to both) in the next 2 sessions. I am not overly bullish on EU TBH - I think there's been substantial pressure and distribution underway, but we'll see.
  • #15,614
  • Mar 9, 2011 10:56pm Mar 9, 2011 10:56pm
they are here :
Attached Image
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #15,615
  • Mar 9, 2011 11:06pm Mar 9, 2011 11:06pm
Quoting mima
they are here :

Everytime we move down a few pips someone whips out this picture. We haven't even taken out yesterday's low let alone anything significant to the bulls.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,616
  • Mar 9, 2011 11:19pm Mar 9, 2011 11:19pm
Quoting pres78
Everytime we move down a few pips someone whips out this picture. We haven't even taken out yesterday's low let alone anything significant to the bulls.
Hey pres78, don't get excited about this guys ...they just come for a little party on EU, GU...AU...Tonight was opportunity for them to get out of woods...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #15,617
  • Mar 10, 2011 1:05am Mar 10, 2011 1:05am
Quoting Steve Gill
EU is all over the place. Although we have long term SOS in the background ...

..Again I'll be watching for action around the recent POCs tomorrow. These charts aren't screaming a clear direction for me yet.

As always if anyone has any comments on my charts or disagrees with what I've written, feel free to post
Steve, I am seeing a mushroom top. When I view the markets action through those eyes it makes sense to me.
22 Feb was a massive shakeout which kicked the market up. There has been no testing on that bar, it went straight up. The wide up bars on 02 Mar and 03 have also not been tested.
I would suggest that the market would retrace to test both these areas (last 2 wide up bars and shakeout) before proceeding up again. Unless there is going to be a final hard run up before this happens, but I doubt it.
  • #15,618
  • Mar 10, 2011 1:33am Mar 10, 2011 1:33am
nice 15 min candles... we just reached feb close, 3806
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #15,619
  • Mar 10, 2011 1:42am Mar 10, 2011 1:42am
Quoting foxybunny
Hi 1pipperhour,

Just checking whether you also got similar vol as my chart below for EU Wed 9-Mar ?

My Wed 9-Mar has high vol similar to Tue 8-Mar.
Noticed that 9-Mar is now a Doji, low of 1.3855.
Look at this low compared to 8-Mar low 1.3862 and 2-Feb low 1.3861, this is like a Double Testing on Daily.
Double Ah-ha!!

With yesterday's Doji, want today's price to clear up 1.3930-1.3940 high of Doji, and then Test this area as a Low if there is further Strength.

Daily Vol is well above avg like last 2 days, nothing special, just possible buying...
Yes now I have a chart with similar volume as in your chart. I need daily volume because I start my day from daily chart.
  • #15,620
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:01am Mar 10, 2011 2:01am
Quoting Scrat
nice 15 min candles... we just reached feb close, 3806
Wasn't it Friday Spain was downgraded by another agency? We got a miserly 15 pip drop and 30 minutes later nothin' ... today - 110 pips, lol! Reminds me of Mr. Kostanza in Seinfeld - "Baby, I'm back!!!"

So ... nice stopping volume - downtrend still predominant. Looking for a move up to the TL or yesterday's low around 1.3855/6 and then another move down to below 1.38 and more testing.

P.S. - Exited the bulk of my previous short WAY too early ... note to self: DON'T, lol!!!!
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