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vsa with Malcolm

  • #15,521
  • Mar 9, 2011 8:37am Mar 9, 2011 8:37am
Quoting pres78
Risky to go long IMHO (and not just because I am short)... we have been working downward and even created a lower swing high just to the left and as of yet I haven't seen any volume surges showing any signifcant strength worth fighting the downmove for... also we have made our way back under the 50% point of today's sad ADR which usualy signals some more room down before a possible bounce up to end the day.
Oh and that 15min pin bar / test of today's developping POC (which is also 50% of today's move) would have kept me out of any longs...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,522
  • Mar 9, 2011 8:38am Mar 9, 2011 8:38am
Quoting Intel
Agreed but, I wasn't advocating a long. I was puting it out there for people to pick the holes in it.
I figured as much ... always testing us. Everything after my "risky to go long" is my poking holes...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,523
  • Mar 9, 2011 8:41am Mar 9, 2011 8:41am
Quoting Intel
GU M5

Any thing wrong with this chart analysis?
Also the second bar in your two bar reversal is on lower vol... I believe we like to see that as higher volume... Infact this looks more like a 2 bar retrace on progressively lower volume which signals weakness is still present.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,524
  • Mar 9, 2011 8:41am Mar 9, 2011 8:41am
Quoting Intel
Confirmation volume can often be low.

The NS doesn't have to be followed by an up bar. It just has to have its high taken out, which the next bar does(when this happens, we don't yet know if the bar will be up or down).
That's good to know, normally if the high was taken out i'd be happy to be in the trade. I thought you guys all wanted the bar after a NS/ND to finish up/down to confirm. I'm glad that isn't the case.

In other news, i bottled taking a ND on the 20min cable. Currently about 5 pips from my 1:1!
  • #15,525
  • Mar 9, 2011 8:44am Mar 9, 2011 8:44am
Quoting Intel
GU M5

Any thing wrong with this chart analysis?
the up move is not supported by volume, but i guess there is something more..

and maybe the NS doesn t have to make a higher high?
  • #15,526
  • Mar 9, 2011 8:48am Mar 9, 2011 8:48am
Quoting pres78
Have set a target for the DPP at 6160 for lot 2... see if PA gets me there. Also today's open and the developping VAL are in this same general area...
Lot 2 closed at 6165... close enough.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,527
  • Mar 9, 2011 8:51am Mar 9, 2011 8:51am
Eur was sold heavy at 3935 and being bought on dips at 3870 and below. A break of this range is needed before we can make any substantial move either way.

With the trend clearly up I still favor longs but will not pull the trigger unless we break 3936 or a spring on high volume develops.
  • #15,528
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:01am Mar 9, 2011 9:01am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Eur was sold heavy at 3935 and being bought on dips at 3870 and below. A break of this range is needed before we can make any substantial move either way...
demand seem to have stepped in around 1.3892 - 1.3910.
let's see if that is enough
  • #15,529
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:11am Mar 9, 2011 9:11am
Quoting supremeChaos
demand seem to have stepped in around 1.3892 - 1.3910.
let's see if that is enough
I agree, I think if we can get above 3940 we are looking primed for a 1.4 retest. Kinsale you still have your long?
  • #15,530
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:13am Mar 9, 2011 9:13am
Quoting Sonofsin5
I agree, I think if we can get above 3940 we are looking primed for a 1.4 retest. Kinsale you still have your long?
Nope I closed it before bed last night, +6pips. Just as well cos it would have hit my stop earlier this morning.
  • #15,531
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:14am Mar 9, 2011 9:14am
Hi Guys,

This is what I think it is for EURUSD on M5 chart.
Please guide if there is anything wrong here.

Thanks!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5_09Mar2011.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #15,532
  • Edited 9:20am Mar 9, 2011 9:18am | Edited 9:20am
Id like to see gu break above 6200 and come back down with a NS or test on the 5 min. The move back below 6180 this morning looks to have been bought.
  • #15,533
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:28am Mar 9, 2011 9:28am
Quoting pres78
Also the second bar in your two bar reversal is on lower vol... I believe we like to see that as higher volume... Infact this looks more like a 2 bar retrace on progressively lower volume which signals weakness is still present.
Ideal if it's on higher vol than the first but not essential. The retrace bit....yes.
  • #15,534
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:30am Mar 9, 2011 9:30am
Quoting KinsaleForex
That's good to know, normally if the high was taken out i'd be happy to be in the trade. I thought you guys all wanted the bar after a NS/ND to finish up/down to confirm. I'm glad that isn't the case.

In other news, i bottled taking a ND on the 20min cable. Currently about 5 pips from my 1:1!
Again ideal if it is. If the next bar is down after breaking the high of the NS, it could signal trouble. Generally, if you have read the rest of the settup correctly, it will be an up bar.
  • #15,535
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:31am Mar 9, 2011 9:31am
Hi Guys,

Based on VSA, this is really moving up right? Bullish rather than markup play?

Hope to hear your opinion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M59Mar2011_LPR.jpg Size: 101 KB
  • #15,536
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:32am Mar 9, 2011 9:32am
Quoting B4iFUrU18
the up move is not supported by volume, but i guess there is something more..

and maybe the NS doesn t have to make a higher high?
Yes there is more.
  • #15,537
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:37am Mar 9, 2011 9:37am
I didn't take this trade but if I had seen it sooner I would have...

We have a 15 min trigger close level of the highest vol 15 min bar on my charts today (green line)... This bar closed well off it's low and the next bar was up showing that this vol had to be buyers. This happening and closing right above 50% of today's move tells me we might be in store for a bounce based on the obvious entry of buyers seen on the 15 min...

Entry option 1 would have been the test bar marked...

Entry option 2 was the NS a few bars later.

Could have gotten in with a tight SL at the low of the test bar for an easy 1:1 and even 2:1.

Trade 1 entry was riskier as it was still under the PAL (for those that use this) where trade entry 2 took us back above.
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,538
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:39am Mar 9, 2011 9:39am
Quoting pres78
I didn't take this trade but if I had seen it sooner I would have...

We have a 15 min trigger close level of the highest vol 15 min bar on my charts today (green line)......

Love your analysis...

Sonic
  • #15,539
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:41am Mar 9, 2011 9:41am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Love your analysis...

Sonic
Thanks very much...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,540
  • Mar 9, 2011 9:49am Mar 9, 2011 9:49am
hmmm on that test bar my volume was slightly higher then previous. What is your broker?


Quoting pres78
I didn't take this trade but if I had seen it sooner I would have...

We have a 15 min trigger close level of the highest vol 15 min bar on my charts today (green line)......
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