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vsa with Malcolm

  • #15,341
  • Mar 8, 2011 11:16am Mar 8, 2011 11:16am
Just switched on Sky Player to put the match on, the default channel is Sky News. They're currently talking to their oil "analyst" He said $200 a barrell is possible in the near future depending on Saudi Arabia but in the same sentence said $50 is possible too. Talk about covering all his bases
  • #15,342
  • Mar 8, 2011 11:35am Mar 8, 2011 11:35am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Just switched on Sky Player to put the match on, the default channel is Sky News. They're currently talking to their oil "analyst" He said $200 a barrell is possible in the near future depending on Saudi Arabia but in the same sentence said $50 is possible too. Talk about covering all his bases
LOL thats my kind of prediction
  • #15,343
  • Mar 8, 2011 11:43am Mar 8, 2011 11:43am
The 12 hour EU, whilst not yet finished, is looking like a test - PA has almost stopped and we're on very low volume.

Is it a coincidence that we're just sitting about the daily POC?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,344
  • Mar 8, 2011 11:54am Mar 8, 2011 11:54am
I think the same for GU (test on the 12H) - what does everyone else think?

Back onto EU: I'm thinking now that we've seen lack of selling on EU at the top and now the market has been marked down to tempt the bears, who aren't appearing. I'm thinking an up day tomorrow, and push through previous high by the end of the week.

I reserve the right to change my position on a daily basis

GU is slightly different as we've seen clear supply at around 1.63, but I suspect it'll head back north as well.
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,345
  • Mar 8, 2011 11:57am Mar 8, 2011 11:57am
Since i posted on eurusd to help some scalpers out there, I would also like to contribute to the community and by writing my first post here regarding my averages. I've just been watching this thread, and learning from you gurus. Please critize me and tell me if I am in the right direction, and what corrections I should consider.


Numbers ill be watching on my daily average are; 4259, 4196, 4029, 3856, 3670, and possibly 3516 if we break 3670.

It looks like we broke one of the low volume high? - in oct 23, so I am wangting to build more confidence as a bull looking for that second high break before the first low volume high, which is around around 4029.

i am guessing if we break 4029, we might have a retrace back to 3856 -3760 (3760 looks really promising, but don't know which way if not broken).

Hard to tell right now since it is making pancakes around like the last high. There might be less volume at this point above our recent high? and maybe more volume our recent low?

At this point, I am weekly
Which way are we going? golly.
  • #15,346
  • Mar 8, 2011 12:13pm Mar 8, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting Steve Gill
Back onto EU: I'm thinking now that we've seen lack of selling on EU at the top and now the market has been marked down to tempt the bears, who aren't appearing. I'm thinking an up day tomorrow, and push through previous high by the end of the week.
I really don't know and I'm bad in predictions. For longs daily candle doesn't look very promising. But this candle with volume seems like shakeout to me. Makes me thinking why someone had to fund today's operation called "let's kill euro"? I hope I get the answer in this week.
  • #15,347
  • Edited 12:30pm Mar 8, 2011 12:21pm | Edited 12:30pm
Quoting malcolmb14
odd fx market today .. reluctant to rise BUT es been awesome as usual
Well you need at least 5K for trading e-mini. Right? Still don't have it. Rising fuel price is eating my money. Read today that in Sweden (our neighbours) fuel costs 1,6089 euros per litre. Nice . Last year I looked at fuel prices in Finland and I thought that good I don't live in Finland. And now we have higher price than in Finland a year ago
  • #15,348
  • Mar 8, 2011 12:24pm Mar 8, 2011 12:24pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
Makes me thinking why someone had to fund today's operation called "let's kill euro"? I hope I get the answer in this week.
That's the beauty - nobody had to fund it.

Think about this example: lets say you have 1 billion of euros bought at 1.30 (for example). Presume you want to sell the 1 billion at a higher price than it is now (otherwise we'd have seen big supply already). You sell 100,000 euros during the day - if no others are tempted to sell then you can be pretty confident you'll be able to buy them back on the way up leaving you where you started - both in price level and value of euros (1 billion in my example). Its cost you next to nothing.

Now if during this 100,000 euros selling the bears panic and start selling as well, thinking that the market is dropping, and if they want to take profit they need to sell now(!) then the volume will increase. If our SM try to buy back their euros they'll not be able to push the price back up with the same amount - it'll cost them a lot more than 100,000 euros because the bears are providing supply and they'd need to buy this supply of euros as well. If the SM see this they won't even try and buy back, and the price will stay lower, on average to high volume.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,349
  • Mar 8, 2011 12:29pm Mar 8, 2011 12:29pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
I really don't know and I'm bad in predictions. For longs daily candle doesn't look very promising. But this candle with volume seems like shakeout to me. Makes me thinking why someone had to fund today's operation called "let's kill euro"? I hope I get the answer in this week.
My downbar is currently sitting at very low volume and if it stays as such and closes off the low then I would look at it as a test bar / NS which tested down to that old original high from back on Feb 2, 2011... for me this keeps my overall bullish outlook well intact eyeing that old 2010 high.

In fact even if it closes down in the bottom 38.2 fib of today's move then I see no selling pressure that again tested that old high (during peak trading hours) with no real selling reaction.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,350
  • Mar 8, 2011 12:33pm Mar 8, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting pres78
My downbar is currently sitting at very low volume and if it stays as such and closes off the low then I would look at it as a test bar / NS which tested down to that old original high from back on Feb 2, 2011... for me this keeps my overall bullish outlook well intact eyeing that old 2010 high.
Someone agrees with me for a change...you are my new best friend
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,351
  • Mar 8, 2011 12:34pm Mar 8, 2011 12:34pm
Quoting Steve Gill
I think the same for GU (test on the 12H) - what does everyone else think?

Back onto EU: I'm thinking now that we've seen lack of selling on EU at the top and now the market has been marked down to tempt the bears, who aren't appearing. I'm thinking an up day tomorrow, and push through previous high by the end of the week.

I reserve the right to change my position on a daily basis

GU is slightly different as we've seen clear supply at around 1.63, but I suspect it'll head back north as well.
i'd agree with you on EU. current down move on decreasing volume and testing last week's value high and the H4 bar that tested was on the lowest 4HR volume since at least the beginning of Feb (for the same time period).

IMO, you have to change position on a daily basis, or at least re-evaluate it, otherwise you are trading based on expectations and not what the chart is telling you!
Change is the only constant
  • #15,352
  • Mar 8, 2011 12:35pm Mar 8, 2011 12:35pm
Quoting Steve Gill
That's the beauty - nobody had to fund it.

Think about this example: lets say you have 1 billion of euros bought at 1.30 (for example). Presume you want to sell the 1 billion at a higher price than it is now (otherwise we'd have seen big supply already). You sell 100,000 euros during the day - if no others are tempted to sell then you can be pretty confident you'll be able to buy them back on the way up leaving you where you started - both in price level and value of euros (1 billion in my example). Its cost you next to nothing.

Now if during...
Maybe I misunderstood you but why the hell should I sell if I bought at 1.3000. I should buy more to start panic buying (everybody jump in so they will not miss the train) to sell my euros higher which were bought at 1.3000
  • #15,353
  • Mar 8, 2011 12:44pm Mar 8, 2011 12:44pm
Quoting pres78
My downbar is currently sitting at very low volume and if it stays as such and closes off the low then I would look at it as a test bar / NS which tested down to that old original high from back on Feb 2, 2011... for me this keeps my overall bullish outlook well intact eyeing that old 2010 high.

In fact even if it closes down in the bottom 38.2 fib of today's move then I see no selling pressure that again tested that old high (during peak trading hours) with no real selling reaction.
Show me your daily chart.

Here is mine.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU daily.jpg Size: 169 KB
  • #15,354
  • Mar 8, 2011 12:52pm Mar 8, 2011 12:52pm
Quoting Steve Gill
I think the same for GU (test on the 12H) - what does everyone else think?

Back onto EU: I'm thinking now that we've seen lack of selling on EU at the top and now the market has been marked down to tempt the bears, who aren't appearing..
Steve, I see an "effort to fall" at the top and a nice retracement to get more stock or pyramid in. That we saw this morning.
Right now the reversal was hardly tested and accumulated. It was too quick. Which IMHO is not the end of the down run. There is a resistance but with lack of interest from the SM. The only way to break that level is to mark it up hard, then drop it. The mark up seems not to be too intense, so I expect it could fall again, then take a hard run up & then down with smaller "loop".
Bear in mind, I am a noob with some understanding of VSA, who is delighted when occasionally I stick my neck out and get it right.
  • #15,355
  • Mar 8, 2011 12:54pm Mar 8, 2011 12:54pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
Maybe I misunderstood you but why the hell should I sell if I bought at 1.3000. I should buy more to start panic buying (everybody jump in so they will not miss the train) to sell my euros higher which were bought at 1.3000
That is not the way the markets work. What you are describing is the quickest way to go bust.

With the greatest of respect I strongly recommend reading (or re-reading) Tom William's book Master the Markets.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,356
  • Mar 8, 2011 12:55pm Mar 8, 2011 12:55pm
Quoting FrankSA
Steve, I see an "effort to fall" at the top and a nice retracement to get more stock or pyramid in. That we saw this morning.
Right now the reversal was hardly tested and accumulated. It was too quick. Which IMHO is not the end of the down run. There is a resistance but with lack of interest from the SM. The only way to break that level is to mark it up hard, then drop it. The mark up seems not to be too intense, so I expect it could fall again, then take a hard run up & then down with smaller "loop"....
I looked back at this trend in 2009, it could also maybe even be following the slow move?
  • #15,357
  • Edited 1:21pm Mar 8, 2011 12:56pm | Edited 1:21pm
Quoting Steve Gill
That is not the way the markets work. What you are describing is the quickest way to go bust.

With the greatest of respect I strongly recommend reading (or re-reading) Tom William's book Master the Markets.


Edit:

If most of the floating supply has been removed,
then the volume will be low (little or no selling). If the floating supply has not been removed, then the
volume will be high (somebody is trading actively on the mark-down which means supply is present). If
most of the floating supply had been removed from the market, how can you have active trading or high

volume? (MTM)

Look at the volume on the chart I posted. This is fxcm tick volume.
  • #15,358
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:01pm Mar 8, 2011 1:01pm
take bus and have wireless internet stick for laptop .... you can trade while going to work

Quoting 1pipperhour
Well you need at least 5K for trading e-mini. Right? Still don't have it. Rising fuel price is eating my money. Read today that in Sweden (our neighbours) fuel costs 1,6089 euros per litre. Nice . Last year I looked at fuel prices in Finland and I thought that good I don't live in Finland. And now we have higher price than in Finland a year ago
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,359
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:14pm Mar 8, 2011 1:14pm
Quoting malcolmb14
take bus and have wireless internet stick for laptop .... you can trade while going to work
They have raised ticket prices as well
  • #15,360
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:05pm Mar 8, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
Maybe I misunderstood you but why the hell should I sell if I bought at 1.3000. I should buy more to start panic buying (everybody jump in so they will not miss the train) to sell my euros higher which were bought at 1.3000
This method really depends on a few things.

1. How deep is your account
2. How large is your position
3. How strong is your conviction
4. What kind of timeframe you working with

If any of these don't fit with the averaging down position, then yes, maybe 9 outta 10 times your method will work out. Its the 1/10 time that will kill your account. Be very careful you can survive those kind of turns before commit to this strategy
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