Price Action Trading - EUR/USD

True to my spirit .... of flipping around ...

There were a few charts of good trading potential like GBPUSD and GBPJPY. The USD pair is good but not ripe yet for picking, not like the Yen pair ...hahah

Looking from the daily chart (the bottom one), it seems like a saucer bottoming formation. From the H4 chart, the buildup of higher lows are looking good at 29.86 and 31.40. The overhead resistance of 34.00 has been tested like 4th time now, with a break on the 3rd trial but closing back below.

Entry for Long has been made at 33.28, with SL at 29.2 and TP at 48 ambitiously, though target of breakout is likely to be aiming for 62.55 ....
that is a long shot .... many days wait, with at least 2-3 pull backs before reaching ..... hmmmm .... i m not so patient though .... hahah

Finally got my long awaited retracement, Oh YEAH !!!

Got 43.4pips worth today from my EURUSD trade ...... Now time to relax awhile ...hahaha

Action Action !!!

Entered @ 3870 Long. SL @ 3820, TP @ 3920

The retracement has gone far back enough to 79%. Time to test the resistance again on the upside ....

Musing over should i close the trade for the day .... .... little bit tired and the market is a little bit to cranky to gauge accurately for longer periods ..... hmmmm....

Guess i throw caution to the wind. I am holding on till TP

Maybe this is what i call luck

Deal done on last nite's trade for 50pips profit

Summary of Trades so far as the name suggests ....

8 Mar : 43.4 pips
9 Mar : 50 pips
Open Trade on GBPJPY - ~36 pips profit now

Week ending 26 Feb : +179pips (9 Trades, Win Ratio: 100%)
Week ending 4 Mar: -12pips (7 Trades, Win Ratio: 57%)
Week ending 11 Mar: On going so far (2 Trades to date .... , Win Ratio: TBA)

Sorrie .... lazy to double post ..... just click the link to see the latest review on possible price action of EURUSD coming soon.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=1#post4456414

Maybe just to add a few lines of analysis here ...

Same Chart that i posted on Buildcity's thread ....

If 3895 resistance cannot hold, the next test would be 3920.
A break of 3920 would likely be bullish since the downtrend channel should be broken too.

Conversely, if support at 3878 cannot hold, 3863 would be tested. This level would likely not hold also if price reach there since it confirms the downtrend acceleration. Target 3833.

I didn't put in any trades for this analysis. Just feel content to watch my analysis bear "fruit" .... like a seer watching the crystal ball like that

Price is unable to move up at the moment and have broke support at 3878 .. abiet not so convincely .... keep a good watch here though. Candle sticks if one zoom in would see long wicks at the bottom, indicating bullishness. Unless the next 20min close below the wicks, the following move should be up.

Sheesh … the price moves even faster than I could type ….

Nah .... how can i stay out of a good trade setup ???

Putting a short order @ 3875, SL 3920 and TP 3840 to take the move down if it comes .... when it comes .....

The order would be cancelled if price hits 3920 irregardless if it is executed or not.

The previous trade just stopped out.

Just shorted from the top @ 3932. Will post the chart later .... abit busy now....

(Loss Pip from this trade: -45pips)

Was busy with scalping trades earlier .... now feel a little more than drained .....

Churned me about 12 pips from the scalps ....

In the midst of everything, I shorted down the EUR/USD again. From 2 points, 3932 & again at 3902, targeting 3887 as TP.

So Long ....

(GBPJPY Long Trade is doing me proud me ~ 54pips profits.)

Both the EURUSD trades were closed at TP respectively
Gain: 45pips and 15pips respectively

New Setup for a Short Trade ...

2 Lower Highs at 3990 and 3940. The 2nd lower high would be confirmed upon break of support at 3860. Once confirmed, the move would be down.

Entry Short @ 3885, TP @ 3803, SL @ 3945

I am back Still tired but feeling good to be back

Yesterday nite's stop out trade was like a once in an occasional happening. ECB stepped in to buy Euro-bonds (dominated in EUR of course) to push down the yield (so that the peripheral nations wouldn't have to face the possibility of possible default due to increased interest payment from debts ....) As a result, the surge in purchase in EUR, created sudden demand, resulting in EUR to surge upside strongly!

ECB concide their purchase with the German Indus. Production news released. Darn ..... what a spike upside !!!

Didn't have time like now to sit back and review everything through like now .... ..... was doing spot trades then and had all my focus on the price action. So i just let my positions run its due course.

But i entered a short at ~ 3940 (or 62% retracement) after a H&S formed, and another somewhere at 3900 after a 2nd test of the upside and moved back down to the support. Took profit at 3887 which is also reaching the congestion and support zone.

These 2 trades made back the loss due to the ECB interference in the bond market.

Oh yeah, did i mention, or did i forget to mention, that i took my TP for this pair down to 35.20 ....

Didn't want to wait for weeks for my profit to materialize. Besides, with central banks coming in every now and then, there is a risk to holding a position for too long. Hate to see the weeks of profit and plummet down due to a central bank interference like yesterday .....

So far the buildup is good (with higher lows formed pretty nicely and good support at 32.92) I expect a topside resistance test of 35.50, with my TP slightly lower just in case ....hehehe

Well ... i do expect a break-out to 39.28, just that i don't know how long it would take to move up to that level. Me? I will take the profit then wait and see

Home Run !!!

Nah ... almost, just miss my TP by 0.4 of a pip to 3804 so i manually close of the trade when i notice it after lunch (a late one that is .... ) at 3822.

So home run from 3885 to 3822: giving me 63 pips tidy proper
Could have been 81 pips hahaha ...

Summary of Trades so far as the name suggests ....

8 Mar : 43.4 pips
9 Mar : 50 -45 + 45 + 15= 65 pips
10 Mar: 63 pips

Open Trade on GBPJPY - ~21 pips profit now

Week ending 26 Feb : +179pips (9 Trades, Win Ratio: 100%)
Week ending 4 Mar: -12pips (7 Trades, Win Ratio: 57%)
Week ending 11 Mar: On going so far (6 Trades to date with 1 losing trade .... , Win Ratio: TBA)

Just when i think it is time to laze around for awhile ..... the chart beckons once more

I have read in the forum a few entries going long from 3816 level. But i reckon this kinda of trade as counter-trend and could be potentially fatal if the move accelerates downward with minimal retracement. Retracement it would, just a matter of how much .....

Critical support for the day at 3850 has been broken for sure. Sentiment for today would be bearish definitely. Downtrend is also going to be confirmed when the move retraces back to resistance and breaks downside again. I reckon a retracement back to the 3850 level to test the resistance or channel top before it would descend downside. It is likely to try for support at 3700 as target.

Entry Short at 3870, SL at 3950, TP at 3755. Good Luck guys / gals to all who are reading

Oh .... just to add that the primary up trendline (the lower one .... ) is likely to hold the downside move for today. This should correspond somewhat to my take profit level. But my guess is that it would overshoot as that support doesn't seem too strong. The support of 3700 would definitely hold any downmove's 1st try.