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vsa with Malcolm

  • #15,201
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:06pm Mar 7, 2011 5:06pm
Quoting FrankSA
Got 3 great entries on Euro 5min..practicing the buy limit and sell limit entries. Pity I didn't let the things run.
At 07.05 there was an ultra- high vol UB, which was tested with a LV DB
@ 07.15. I thought it could be an "effort to rise" since it cleared a congested area in the background. So I let my concentration slip.
@ 07.25 the volume increased a lot but the resulting price action was sluggish up bar, and failed to break out.
I didn't see this as potential weakness..should I have interpreted it that way or waited for the next bar...
Can you upload any charts for us Frank? It'll help your learning curve when people here can comment on it.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,202
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:21pm Mar 7, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting Steve Gill
My thoughts on EU...
Anyone else come to any conclusions from today's price action?

Price is at 1.3961 or so which is intermidiate /long term POC...I prefer it go down to VAL at 1.3851 and then to 1.3740...if all kind of information doesn't change direction...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #15,203
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:01pm Mar 7, 2011 6:01pm
Quoting Steve Gill
My thoughts on EU.

Attached is an 8 hour chart, starting 06.00 to 14.00 (europe open through most of london), then 14.00 to 22.00 (most of US session), then the asia 8 hour sess.

Today I feel in the first 8 hour session we moved up comfortably above the magic 1.40 whole number but didn't see major supply at all. We then moved back down to my POC from the last few days on low volume.

Whilst there is not enough demand from the SM for higher prices (yet) there isn't much supply around either, which they will have noticed. I think for tomorrow...
EU appears to be balancing after last thursday's markup. Early London today tested Friday's value area low and found reactive buying to push price up. We then found reactive selling at the top, but as you indicate volume is not that high up there so not real strong selling, most likely profit taking. The US session was unable to break the London low, and now it looks like a double bottom on lowering volume - testing for supply with decreasing volume.

I am anticipating a move back up to 1.4000 - 1.4020 area. signs of weakness there would signal a move down to about 3880 (the top before the breakout) where i'd anticipate strong demand. If that level fails than IMO back down to last weeks POC at around 1.3809 or even 3750 (last week's value area low).
Change is the only constant
  • #15,204
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:20pm Mar 7, 2011 6:20pm
Eur was weak all day today during the 2 major sessions. We need the big money to show us their hand before I take a long trade; as of right now I'm not interested in buying the Eur.
  • #15,205
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:52pm Mar 7, 2011 6:52pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
Eur was weak all day today during the 2 major sessions. We need the big money to show us their hand before I take a long trade; as of right now I'm not interested in buying the Eur.
Hey all,

I've been really busy with work and school recently, finals next week. Tomorrow I'll be able to trade during NY open, and I'll be watching for further clues at highlighted areas.

The first chart is EU H12 showing a couple supply levels. The second chart is EU H3. This is definitely an area of interest. I'm not saying she'll turn here but there will definitely be some serious profit taking as tgwhbb mentioned.

Edit:

Forgot to mention I'm with sonofsin regarding waiting for them to show us what to do

Also this is Oanda's volume
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  • #15,206
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:58pm Mar 7, 2011 6:58pm
Thanks 4 welcome guys, looks like a real nice thread u all got here...will get in touch as soon as I got my homework done! :-)
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #15,207
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:02pm Mar 7, 2011 7:02pm
Extremely high volume has been observed on GU 4hr tf. This volume is CERTAINLY not sellers. I still maintain that 1.6660 would usher in the great fall to 1.26. Happy trading! Meshach.
  • #15,208
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:08pm Mar 7, 2011 7:08pm
Quoting forexcompoun
Extremely high volume has been observed on GU 4hr tf. This volume is CERTAINLY not sellers. I still maintain that 1.6660 would usher in the great fall to 1.26. Happy trading! Meshach.
Hi forexcompoun,

i have 2 newbie qns for u 1st one based on ur reply earlier..

1)how do u know it's not seller's volume? how do we interpret it as not seller's volume and hidden buying instead?

2) how can we be sure the volume we're seeing on forex broker's platform is real volume in the market since different brokers have different volumes ?

thanks in advance for reading thru my post
appreciate ur inputs and comments
  • #15,209
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:27pm Mar 7, 2011 7:27pm
Just flipping through various views and existing long term templates of my charts, and I have noticed unusually high volume in EURUSD during Monday's PA. Normally I would suspect a liquidity provider change or hiccup, but this remains rather healthy Citibank volume. Checking other majors, I am not seeing anything like this (today), including nothing extraordinary in volume after today's 150 pip GU bloodbath.

But EURUSD is also up right against a significant (up) channel trendline, plus it looks like it might be failing the peek over the Nov 2009 1.51x downtrend line - I have had these on my charts for months.

It leads me to believe today's EU was seeing significant distribution. Also, I am seeing extremely high USDJPY buying volume support at the dip to 81.95, which lines up nicely with DXY support and a potential reversal, to catch up with an apparent 3:1 long:short ratio in USDJPY.

I absolutely expect another run at 1.4 (like others here), but will be looking closely for NDs on M20 and higher. This combination of events is rare, and I firmly believe something is up; we had about 70 pip ADR today (remember, slightly better than Friday too), and when we get that in a week span, we usually hit upon a ~200 pip ADR day - it's hard to believe it will be upwards.

If anyone can do the 1439 eSignal trick and/or other decent volume zoomed out on a H4 or daily, it would be interesting to see Monday's volume compared against months and weeks behind us - hard to be conclusive with all our variables, but I think something's up ... there is plenty of fundie news to drive us down - just need the spotlight!

(edit) Steve: Just seeing your H8 eSig chart for EU - guess I'm not seeing a marked volume increase there - maybe a zoom out on a H4 or 1439 will show it?
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  • #15,210
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:40pm Mar 7, 2011 7:40pm
Quoting forexcompoun
Extremely high volume has been observed on GU 4hr tf. This volume is CERTAINLY not sellers. I still maintain that 1.6660 would usher in the great fall to 1.26. Happy trading! Meshach.
A chart could be extremely helpful, and perhaps insight into your liquidity provider. I am not seeing it in my Citi LP, and Malcolm's IB doesn't seem to show extraordinary GU volume.

BTW, there's a significant 1.64 barrier trendline that is months old, that's seen multiple rejections, including today's back-of-the-woodshed bludgeoning of sterling - a reach to 1.66 seems like a bit of an overshoot; we are though in BoE decision week, and anything could happen. ie., certainly not many of us thought ECB/Trichet would blabber about a rate increase, although April is grossly unrealistic in my mind.
  • #15,211
  • Mar 7, 2011 8:03pm Mar 7, 2011 8:03pm
Quoting frankkn
Hey all,
...The second chart is EU H3....Edit:

Also this is Oanda's volume
Volume was high on mentioned spots on H3(esignal) but not that high relative to others....It is like a triple Yao Ming...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #15,212
  • Mar 7, 2011 8:14pm Mar 7, 2011 8:14pm
Quoting Beljevina
Just flipping through various views and existing long term templates of my charts, and I have noticed unusually high volume in EURUSD during Monday's PA. Normally I would suspect a liquidity provider change or hiccup, but this remains rather healthy Citibank volume. Checking other majors, I am not seeing anything like this (today), including nothing extraordinary in volume after today's 150 pip GU bloodbath.

But EURUSD is also up right against a significant (up) channel trendline, plus it looks like it might be failing the peek over the Nov 2009...
Hi Beljevina,

When you have so many channels/trendlines, some up, some down, how do you tell which one is the dominant lines ?

Whether it is Up Channel or Down Channel in play for EUR/USD ?

Also Vol becomes a bit harder to see once the volume bars seem to be squeeze up.

Just trying to understand your spiderweb templates.

I also did have those same templates, just after a while too many lines to see which ones really count at that time.
  • #15,213
  • Mar 7, 2011 9:27pm Mar 7, 2011 9:27pm
Quoting forexcompoun
Extremely high volume has been observed on GU 4hr tf. This volume is CERTAINLY not sellers. I still maintain that 1.6660 would usher in the great fall to 1.26. Happy trading! Meshach.
it's not 'extremely high volume'....just high volume, please avoid confusing terms
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Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #15,214
  • Mar 7, 2011 10:31pm Mar 7, 2011 10:31pm
Quoting willkohsg
Hi forexcompoun,

i have 2 newbie qns for u 1st one based on ur reply earlier..

1)how do u know it's not seller's volume? how do we interpret it as not seller's volume and hidden buying instead?

2) how can we be sure the volume we're seeing on forex broker's platform is real volume in the market since different brokers have different volumes ?

thanks in advance for reading thru my post
appreciate ur inputs and comments
(1) I can tell that it is not seller's volume because that healthy, good spread 4hr bar didn't 'give birth' to a candle like itself. If a very tall man gives birth to a dwarf, most likely that could raise questions about the fatherhood of the child right?
(2) I really am not too interested in the 'exact' volume since I'm very aware of the fact that there's no centralized exchange in FOREX. In life, most of the things we do are relative to a datum level (reference point). What's the height that qualifies one as 'tall'? A person that qualifies as tall in Asia might not necessarily qualify as tall in Egypt. I could have two 5-footers, one 5'8" and the other 5'2". We wld be correct to say that the 5'8" guy is 'TALLer' than the other guy yet this 5'8" guy won't qualify as tall standing next to Shaquille O'neal. Hope I made a little bit of sense? Happy trading bro!
  • #15,215
  • Mar 7, 2011 10:43pm Mar 7, 2011 10:43pm
Have not check or play GBP/USD for about 1-month.

Now analyse GBP/USD based on Boxes.

The Blue Horizontal Dash Lines are the Boxes for GBP/USD.

As only started today analysing GBP/USD, still need to fine-tune the Support/Resistance lines of these Boxes.

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  • #15,216
  • Mar 8, 2011 12:45am Mar 8, 2011 12:45am
Quoting forexcompoun
Extremely high volume has been observed on GU 4hr tf. This volume is CERTAINLY not sellers. I still maintain that 1.6660 would usher in the great fall to 1.26. Happy trading! Meshach.
Can you post a chart please Meshach?

I'm not seeing anywhere near high volume on my 4 hour chart, GU Spot or Futures.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,217
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:16am Mar 8, 2011 1:16am
Quoting Beljevina
(edit) Steve: Just seeing your H8 eSig chart for EU - guess I'm not seeing a marked volume increase there - maybe a zoom out on a H4 or 1439 will show it?
My 1439 is attached. Ignore the bars on the far left for now as I'm still not sure what I did to change that happening!

But this is on Spot EU, and I would say its average or slightly below average volume. Certainly not high or ultra high.
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,218
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:11am Mar 8, 2011 2:11am
Quote
Originally Posted by Steve Gill #15203

Can you upload any charts for us Frank? It'll help your learning curve when people here can comment on it.
Ref: Page 1004; Post #15199 Mar 7, 2011 5:14pm

Now that I look at that chart again it is kinda obvious that there could be no breakout, looks more like a capping bar..My concentration slipped, I became too complacent after seeing the "NS test"..just assumed it would continue up. When in the trade..always be vigilant!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,219
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:17am Mar 8, 2011 2:17am
EU M15

Potential setup forming. Wait for the trigger tho.
  • #15,220
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:25am Mar 8, 2011 2:25am
Quoting Intel
EU M15

Potential setup forming. Wait for the trigger tho.
Yep and I see the same thing forming on GU... GU lagging though. Time wise.
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