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vsa with Malcolm

  • #15,161
  • Mar 7, 2011 10:57am Mar 7, 2011 10:57am
Quoting duyk20
Anyone watching gu, way too oversold, strength in the background as well
30m also @ strong demand level
Hope you didn't get into a long trade...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,162
  • Mar 7, 2011 10:58am Mar 7, 2011 10:58am
Quoting Intel
Yours was a good setup.
Shame we didnt trade them

Ewok, did you get the down move aswell?
  • #15,163
  • Mar 7, 2011 11:00am Mar 7, 2011 11:00am
Quoting Intel
Shame we didnt trade them

Ewok, did you get the down move aswell?
Thus the reason why we both still have to work
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,164
  • Mar 7, 2011 11:03am Mar 7, 2011 11:03am
Quoting Intel
Food for thought.
I was talking about EU with the lack of selling, but you've posted a GU 8 hour chart - were you thinking I was talking about GU?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,165
  • Mar 7, 2011 11:03am Mar 7, 2011 11:03am
Quoting pres78
Hope you didn't get into a long trade...
Thank Pres, I did get in but out @ be, don't like price action. Also, eu kept pushing lower..
  • #15,166
  • Mar 7, 2011 11:08am Mar 7, 2011 11:08am
I'm interested in the PA around 1.3973, the POC on my charts. If we see a bounce and then a pullback test on low volume it would be a good long I think. But we'll let the charts tell us what to do
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,167
  • Mar 7, 2011 11:08am Mar 7, 2011 11:08am
Personally I would still like to see a retrace on this latest leg up into the 3800 or even 3730 zones to rebuild long positions to try and test that 2010 high. We can't keep going up without some significant retracement IMHO.

If we get back down under 3730 then I see further move down into 3600 or even 3450. Under 3450 and well back down to this years low we go.

It's all going to come down to whether SM wants to continue taking out the supply at 1.4. Some lower priced buys to build some steam might be just what is needed.

Lot's of conjestion is this area now and in the past... Just look at how long we spent in and around this area back in 2010 before busting through to the 4280 high just before the big drop.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,168
  • Mar 7, 2011 11:09am Mar 7, 2011 11:09am
We frequently tend to get curve balls on Mondays, don't we. There's been M5/M10/M15 ND/NS trades on EU today, but I've only been able to safely get 10-15 pips a few times. My trendlines have served me well in lieu of any strong signals either way.

We knew 1.395 and 1.40x were the buy and sell zones - even forexlive called it out (love it when institutional buys line up with mine). VSA has been a difficult read for me today, but it does look like distribution and profit taking underway. Also looks like we at best will get a doji on the daily, so I read more downside potential. (Not to cloud things with fundies too much, but you gotta remember the downgrades of Greece & Spain, plus, DXY is showing more bounce.)

GU has been a surprising sell and is seeing another day at the woodshed - 150+ pips is pretty nice, although I got on the train rather late. BoE has their rate news this week, and it appears someone knows/expects something. IMO, 1.6-1.63/64 is fair value zone for GU, with the top end as major resistance. BoE is certainly not expected to take rates up, and given the much overall poorer state of affairs over there, raising rates solely due to inflation is a hard sell at best, so I don't think we'll see it - question is how much if any pre-rate pop sterling might get, due to hawkish ramblings.

Malcolm, been thinking about your comments on the wicks in GU & GJ since last week - kept me alert to sells on both of those.

I find different folk's charts offer different perspective and something we don't always see in ours, so here they are ...
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  • #15,169
  • Mar 7, 2011 11:22am Mar 7, 2011 11:22am
Quoting Beljevina
We frequently tend to get curve balls on Mondays, don't we. There's been M5/M10/M15 ND/NS trades on EU today, but I've only been able to safely get 10-15 pips a few times. My trendlines have served me well in lieu of any strong signals either way.

We knew 1.395 and 1.40x were the buy and sell zones - even forexlive called it out (love it when institutional buys line up with mine). VSA has been a difficult read for me today, but it does look like distribution and profit taking underway. Also looks like we at best will get a doji on the daily, so...
Always nice to see your spider nest template
  • #15,170
  • Mar 7, 2011 11:28am Mar 7, 2011 11:28am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Always nice to see your spider nest template
a spider nest? I thought were were at a pink ffloyd concert
  • #15,171
  • Mar 7, 2011 11:36am Mar 7, 2011 11:36am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Always nice to see your spider nest template
I like that one ... I have a high spider-web per eyeball threshold, lol! Now, don't make me publish a H4 or daily version of the chart ... !

But back to business ... wonder if we'll see 1.389 during the next Asia/London ...
  • #15,172
  • Mar 7, 2011 11:43am Mar 7, 2011 11:43am
Once again I didn't take any trades today but man even just the move down on GU gave some nice clear VSA entries both near the top and along the way down.

Red lines left to right... (note that we are under the 5 min PAL and the 15min PAL for all triggers shown)

1. High vol, wide spread up bar, possible triggers at H/L or Close
2. Upbar into high of bar 1 on decreased vol, next few bars come right back down below low of bar 1 showing weakness and no higher price interest
3. squat bar closed at low of bar 1
4. low vol test of low trigger, closes as pin on trigger level
5. even lower vol up bar, ND (Entry 1 on next bar which breaks low, SL at trigger bar high)
6. Another high volume downbar giving us more possible triggers
7. Not super low but much lower than the trigger bar 6, test and close below trigger, oh and by the way this trigger level and test close below the DPP (Entry 2, SL at high of trigger bar)
8. Nice ND with obvious background weakness also right at POC from 2.28.2011 (Entry 3, SL at recent swing high (high of test bar # 7))

All trades had a nice and easy 1:1 return and the higher entries could have been riden for much more.
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,173
  • Mar 7, 2011 11:50am Mar 7, 2011 11:50am
HARD SHYT SCUBA chart for gu

here is why I am thinking 1.6150 to start. I think there is some distribution on gu and 1.6050 to 1.6000 nice target and would be awesome for me to take profit to start the

MALLERINAS WORLD TOUR , kicking off in London March 11th

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,174
  • Mar 7, 2011 12:06pm Mar 7, 2011 12:06pm
hi guys!

question to the experts, why did this trade went wrong?
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  • #15,175
  • Mar 7, 2011 12:09pm Mar 7, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting B4iFUrU18
hi guys!

question to the experts, why did this trade went wrong?
I'm not an expert, but I'll answer anyway if you'll let me.

You've written strength in the background on your chart - its not just strength in the background on the same timeframe you need (in your case M5), it's strength in the background on higher timeframes as well. GU was showing weakness since last week.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,176
  • Mar 7, 2011 12:13pm Mar 7, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting B4iFUrU18
hi guys!

question to the experts, why did this trade went wrong?
The high of your shake out confirmation bar where you write to go long is also not broken.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,177
  • Edited 12:34pm Mar 7, 2011 12:23pm | Edited 12:34pm
what is the trend ? down or up since US open ? picking tops or bottoms will only get you in trouble

You always need to watch for trend change if you think you have seen strength or weakness and then look for testing

2 awesome opps for getting in this trade on a 15 min

1st is ut , second is a no demand

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Quoting B4iFUrU18
hi guys!

question to the experts, why did this trade went wrong?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,178
  • Mar 7, 2011 12:34pm Mar 7, 2011 12:34pm
You HAVE to consider all time frames when trading

here is the 4 hour ... classic distribution and failure of the breakout level 1.6262. This is NOT a bullish 4 hour . Not to saty 1.6150 or even 1.6 will not find buyers but for now this is a bear chart

so drill down to 15 , 10 and 5 min

would you like to coutner trend trade or trade with the trend and within range limits ? you were trying to buy middle of range when bottom has yet to be tested. I know there are many that say they are geniusus and can grab all pips. I do not want all pips I want EASY PIPS . Today was 110 so far with eyes closed almost .

when 4 hour is weak like this SELL RALLIES. Yes you may miss a few reversal trades but who cares !!!! in the long run you will make money with this simple trading 101 stratergy... trend is your friend.

TREND IS YOUR FRIEND

print it out .. enlarge it and stick it to your monitor , never forget it

why was i bearish GU ... background ..background background. Steve Gill and i were chatting about this gu sell and gj sell on weekend and had a plan. I was pretty happy when i saw the no demand up moves on 30 min this morning when US started going.

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Quoting B4iFUrU18
hi guys!

question to the experts, why did this trade went wrong?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,179
  • Mar 7, 2011 12:37pm Mar 7, 2011 12:37pm
can someone please tell me the price of euro ? I have so many indies I can no longer see price window ..

HARD SHYT ...

btw if someone wants this template it is yours for cheap price of 6 installments of 56 cents.

lol

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  • #15,180
  • Mar 7, 2011 12:40pm Mar 7, 2011 12:40pm
Quoting malcolmb14
can someone please tell me the price of euro ? I have so many indies I can no longer see price window ..

HARD SHYT ...

btw if someone wants this template it is yours for cheap price of 6 installments of 56 cents.

lol

Attachment
Price doesn't matter in trading so please do not worry yourself with it, buy high and then higher and then higher... oh and then sell low (or something like that)

Sell the strength and buy the weakness but only when the MACD agrees.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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