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vsa with Malcolm

  • #15,101
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:17am Mar 7, 2011 6:17am
all words...no chart...

More chart pls.. getting bored..

Sonic
  • #15,102
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:26am Mar 7, 2011 6:26am
Quoting Steve Gill
No. As Tom Williams makes clear, test bars are ALWAYS on down bars.

You may find that on a higher timeframe it looks different - for example, there could be a test on the 5 min which results in the price shooting up - on the 15 minute it could end up being an upbar with a tail.
Where does he state that all test bars are on downbars? Why can it not be an upbar? The example in MTM of a successful test has marked an upbar with it's close being higher than the previous bar?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,103
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:31am Mar 7, 2011 6:31am
Quoting pres78
Where does he state that all test bars are on downbars? Why can it not be an upbar? The example in MTM of a successful test has marked an upbar with it's close being higher than the previous bar?
I first heard it in the chart reading masterclass. He made a point of emphasising that ALL tests are on down bars, and if it looks like a test on an up bar you'll actually find drilling down a few timeframes that the test was on a smaller timeframe with the resulting move up being combined to make it look like a test on an upbar.

It make sense to me, that the SM will always test as cheaply as possible i.e. downwards. They will only push up where there is no selling into their buying, and as soon as they see selling they will rest, withdraw and work out a plan to remove this supply. The exception to this is where they are that bullish they are prepared to absorb supply, and gap up / wide spread up through resistance - the only time high volume up bars are a good thing.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,104
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:33am Mar 7, 2011 6:33am
This for me personally would have been a nice entry off successful test of previous high vol area / trigger and POC.

1. POC from 3/4/2011 which had not been broken so far today
2. High Vol and relatively wide spread bar closing on it's low followed by an upbar... perhaps we have seen stopping vol.
3. This would have been my entry bar (had I been trading today) as it touches the close of the high vol downbar and goes back up to close on the highs on much lower vol showing me no supply present and the big boys are going to take it up.

The vol wasn't super low but it is low in comparison to the last time we touched this level and on top of that the increase in vol from the previous downbar actually gives me more confirmation in no further interest to the downside.

Nice tight SL on this one too, just below the days low.
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,105
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:37am Mar 7, 2011 6:37am
Quoting Steve Gill
I first heard it in the chart reading masterclass. He made a point of emphasising that ALL tests are on down bars, and if it looks like a test on an up bar you'll actually find drilling down a few timeframes that the test was on a smaller timeframe with the resulting move up being combined to make it look like a test on an upbar.

It make sense to me, that the SM will always test as cheaply as possible i.e. downwards. They will only push up where there is no selling into their buying, and as soon as they see selling they will rest, withdraw and...
I see... perhaps the upbar tests are the ones I see some referring to as hidden tests...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,106
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:41am Mar 7, 2011 6:41am
Quoting pres78
I see... perhaps the upbar tests are the ones I see some referring to as hidden tests...
Sounds about right - its not a biggie, but I think its important for newbies to understand what a test is trying to do, rather than focussing on the actual layout of the bar.

The end result is the same - your example above is a hidden test, but I think it would be good for newbies to recognise that what has happened here is on a lower timeframe the test took place, the SM were happy with the result and up it went.

Edit: I agree it would have been a nice trade btw
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,107
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:45am Mar 7, 2011 6:45am
Quoting Steve Gill
Sounds about right - its not a biggie, but I think its important for newbies to understand what a test is trying to do, rather than focussing on the actual layout of the bar.

The end result is the same - your example above is a hidden test, but I think it would be good for newbies to recognise that what has happened here is on a lower timeframe the test took place, the SM were happy with the result and up it went.

Edit: I agree it would have been a nice trade btw
Agreed as it is the lower TF's that make up the higher TF bars... Looking back it doesn't appear that most take too much stock in whether the test bar closes as an up or downbar but more the reaction of the bar in that area of previous high vol.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,108
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:48am Mar 7, 2011 6:48am
Quoting pres78
Agreed as it is the lower TF's that make up the higher TF bars... Looking back it doesn't appear that most take too much stock in whether the test bar closes as an up or downbar but more the reaction of the bar in that area of previous high vol.


I used to look at tests as almost signals without properly thinking what they are, where now I recognise that they are one of the most important VSA signals, especially at an obvious potential support level.

I think for any newbies reading this thread the key is to recognise tests are at their most powerful at support levels - especially the W bounce in pres78's example above. Don't just assume any time you see a test its a signal to go long.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,109
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:50am Mar 7, 2011 6:50am
Now that EU has taken out and closed above 1.4 I would expect a retrace into this level to test for support.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,110
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:52am Mar 7, 2011 6:52am
Quoting Steve Gill


I used to look at tests as almost signals without properly thinking what they are, where now I recognise that they are one of the most important VSA signals, especially at an obvious potential support level.

I think for any newbies reading this thread the key is to recognise tests are at their most powerful at support levels - especially the W bounce in pres78's example above. Don't just assume any time you see a test its a signal to go long.
Like any bar used for trade entry such as a ND or NS positioning of the test bar and overall background is critical.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,111
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:52am Mar 7, 2011 6:52am
Quoting hwsv07
can someone post a 15min chart of gold and oil and es?

can't have access to mt4 right now.
Attached is Gold spot - I don't have access to the others.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau 15m 7th mar.jpg Size: 188 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,112
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:00am Mar 7, 2011 7:00am
Good Morning Friends: Here is what I think I see in the EU this morning.

A Strength reasserted after Friday's NFP hidden upthrust.
B Strength demonstrated via reverse upthrust
C More Strength on higher close with lower TA and long upper shadow/leg/wick
D High TA test indicating that some sellers may be looking to distribute at lower prices. This told big capital SM to run a shake out.
E No Supply bar. I think it is interesting that this nominal sign of strength was used to presage a three bar reversal into a three bar shake out. (Perhaps the interbank network ECN was instructed to delay executions for a bit so this low TA down close bar could do its work in luring in more suckers so the bank market makers could catch their stops.)

Best Wishes for Big Profits and Do Stay Safe
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 15m 3-7-11.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #15,113
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:11am Mar 7, 2011 7:11am
Quoting pres78
I see... perhaps the upbar tests are the ones I see some referring to as hidden tests...
This is purely a timing thing. All tests are on down bars. However, if the bar closes up slightly, it will become a 'hidden test'. It is hidden because it's not a down bar.

If we look at what a test is doing and what reaction we want from a successful test, we can see why a hidden test is also valid. There was low volume during the down move of the bar, then price rose back to the highs. At this point the test is valid but, the bar hasnt completed yet. If SM think the time is right (the test is successful) they will push prices up. In our little scenario, the test bar would now close as an up bar and on higher volume. This is where we gat a successful 'high volume test' from.

If we were to see the high volume test after it has closed, we would not readily know whether it was a successful high volume test or a failed hidden test. We might be able to tell from the smaller TFs but, the best way is to see it forming.

It is far safer in my opinion, to look only for the basic test and results. We can get ourselves in a right old mess if we persue all the various tests.
  • #15,114
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:16am Mar 7, 2011 7:16am
Quoting Intel
This is purely a timing thing. All tests are on down bars. However, if the bar closes up slightly, it will become a 'hidden test'. It is hidden because it's not a down bar.

If we look at what a test is doing and what reaction we want from a successful test, we can see why a hidden test is also valid. There was low volume during the down move of the bar, then price rose back to the highs. At this point the test is valid but, the bar hasnt completed yet. If SM think the time is right (the test is successful) they will push prices up. In our little...
As always thanks for your wonderful insight... so based on that would you see any valid entry on the move up today on EU? The only decent entry I saw was the hidden test that I noted in my chart example. Even though is was a hidden test the fact that we moved away from the high volume bar and came right back down to test it was all I would have need for confirmation.

Really interested in your take and if you saw any tradeable entries on EU today.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,115
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:17am Mar 7, 2011 7:17am
Another exciting day thus far with respect to daily ranges...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,116
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:36am Mar 7, 2011 7:36am
Cable is up and down like whore's drawers today..
  • #15,117
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:42am Mar 7, 2011 7:42am
Quoting Intel
If SM think the time is right (the test is successful) they will push prices up. In our little scenario, the test bar would now close as an up bar and on higher volume. This is where we gat a successful 'high volume test' from.
Well worded. You have a knack for explaining things well
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,118
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:45am Mar 7, 2011 7:45am
Is anyone looking at GU. Possible long on 10 min. Testing atm right at DPP imo. Will throw a chart if it plays out.
  • #15,119
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:46am Mar 7, 2011 7:46am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Cable is up and down like whore's drawers today..
3 of the last 5 days we have seen open and close prices being within just a few pips... We are definately staring at some major supply for cable.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,120
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:56am Mar 7, 2011 7:56am
  •  blocp
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience, Patience,Patience | 22 Posts
Steve

I have sent you a pm and would be really grateful if you could reply.

Thanks
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