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  • #601
  • Feb 26, 2006 11:49am Feb 26, 2006 11:49am
Quoting Claude
...
But if there is statistically a better time. Would you want to know.
If it can add one more marble of the correct color in that bag. It's definitely worth the effort.

I don't wanna go too far off topic here. And I know I can as the system designer.

So just a little bit of food for thought
I think all your work/effort is appreciated here in this thread Claude! And as you say in your siggy:
"A truly wise man, always has more questions than answers. " And we got a whole lotta Q's...looking for ways to get that extra in-our-favor-marble in the bag if possible.

:-)
  • #602
  • Feb 26, 2006 7:45pm Feb 26, 2006 7:45pm
G'day folks,

Having read this thread right through, I am still unsure about one aspect (i've probably read it but not digested it!) - when we have a touch (or cross) of the appropriate fib line, do we then check for reversal signal on the hourly chart or daily chart and then see if the momentum takes the price retracing back through 50% on the daily or hourly chart?

In my interpretation (from a noob perspective), waiting for a reversal sig on the daily will pretty much put paid to any momentum there would've been.

Many thanks,
Andrew.
  • #603
  • Feb 26, 2006 8:46pm Feb 26, 2006 8:46pm
Almost right...

1) Price crosses fib on daily.
2) Check hourly chart for a reversal day. From the 23:00 MT4 time open has there been more than 30 - 47+ pips movement from high of the day to low of the day. Check for 50% retracement from the low and see how fast and strong the retracement is. Use the fib tool if you can to get the 50% number.
3) Check to see if the daily is showing a strong reversal too.
4) Enter trade 5+ pips past the 50%
5) stop should most likely be at the low of the day or somwhere where it wont get hit, 30-50 pips away.
6) When trade gets +50pips or so move stop to break even.
7) When price gets to channel sell close 50% of open trade.
8) Rest of trade is a free trade let it roam, until you get a reversal in but dont let it ever come back to zero $ profit.

This is how I understand it, please correct if you see it differently, I'm also new to this.





Quoting Artamon
G'day folks,
Having read this thread right through, I am still unsure about one aspect (i've probably read it but not digested it!) - when we have a touch (or cross) of the appropriate fib line, do we then check for reversal signal on the hourly chart or daily chart and then see if the momentum takes the price retracing back through 50% on the daily or hourly chart?

In my interpretation (from a noob perspective), waiting for a reversal sig on the daily will pretty much put paid to any momentum there would've been.

Many thanks,
Andrew.
  • #604
  • Feb 27, 2006 9:48am Feb 27, 2006 9:48am
Latest version.

Regards,
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip zip ii.ZIP   61 KB | 382 downloads
  • #605
  • Edited 6:27pm Feb 27, 2006 6:16pm | Edited 6:27pm
Quoting rjb1024
Market Open Times ???
Hi,

Being in NZ and confused about times... could you give the times in GMT? or what time you started your time analysis (in your attached pic) from the top of your sheet in GMT.

Excellent analysis by Claude and rjb1024!

edit... read your original post again Claude - it's amazing what you pick up when you 'actually' read it.... so no need to answer
  • #606
  • Feb 27, 2006 7:10pm Feb 27, 2006 7:10pm
Quoting Claude
I ran a quick little test in TradeStations
example: if it is three o'clock consider this the opening and buy or sell in the direction of that candle. If the trade is older than one day exit and start over.
These times are based on Eastern standard New York Time

By running it on five years of data. There is a strange result, five o'clock in the morning, simply by going towards the direction of that candle. It produces $50,000 in profit using one LOT. No doubt this is a five year fluke. But what is interesting is that a variance by one-hour. Either way, produced -17,000 and variance of two hours produced $5,000. Strange.
Looking at the 1701 time with a net profit of -102180, would the opposite be true? i.e. if you traded in the opposite direction to that candle would the profit be $100k?

What it also seems to be saying (please correct me if I'm wrong!) is that after the second hour bar (10am) of the european session (trade entry at 11am London time, 5am ET time) is statistically significant when it comes to direction over the next 24 hours...
  • #607
  • Feb 27, 2006 7:16pm Feb 27, 2006 7:16pm
Quoting magpie23
Looking at the 1701 time with a net profit of -102180, would the opposite be true? i.e. if you traded in the opposite direction to that candle would the profit be $100k?
Boy, if I had a pip for everytime I've heard that one.

No. It doesn't. Mainly due to the spread but there are other factors also.

Don't feel bad. I think probably everyone here has at least thought of it at some time or another.
  • #608
  • Feb 27, 2006 7:46pm Feb 27, 2006 7:46pm
Quote
But what is interesting is that a variance by one-hour. Either way, produced -17,000 and variance of two hours produced $5,000. Strange.

That's what a lot of chaos theory is about: The difference between paths through a system from two similar entry points. You also might have found a harmonic frequency that never goes away. You might learn a lot about the market by studying this stuff more deeply.
  • #609
  • Feb 27, 2006 8:13pm Feb 27, 2006 8:13pm
This is just something I have been thinking about...

As the most profitable candles change with time why not develop a chunk of code that will plot this change and display it to a spreadsheet or chart? The change thru time is most likely not something that happens overnight. It probably happens gradually which would make it profitable to trade. Then we could auto trade it and simply monitor how and when price changes and adjust the time frame of the trades accordingly.
  • #610
  • Feb 27, 2006 10:16pm Feb 27, 2006 10:16pm
Quoting MrMajik
As the most profitable candles change with time why not develop a chunk of code that will plot this change and display it to a spreadsheet or chart?
This is what I've been doing lately. I've noticed some important things. I've found that I can't begin to use chaos or wave theory except in terms of a moving average. In my simplest analyses such as spectral analysis this just means that I have to cancel the overall trend and add it back at the end. So I've proven to myself that yes, the trend is my friend.

The coolest result I've found so far is an attempt at a Poincaire section of a GBPUSD monthly chart. A tight moving average is plotted against the price change. It forms a nice elipsoid pattern that's never violated anywhere in the chart. This implies a possible 100% success rate could be found on rare bounces off the edges, but I notice the shape tightens over time and might eventually expand. I also want to use this with lots of different data to see if there's a system here.

Based on this stuff, I decided to start using the Vegas system for now. Their statistical model is similar to the pattern I found.

I think statistical systems work, but it's still worthwhile to find a pattern that establishes hard constraints to push that 100% success rate limit.
  • #611
  • Feb 28, 2006 2:13am Feb 28, 2006 2:13am
Quoting Bemac
No. It doesn't. Mainly due to the spread but there are other factors also.
I know what you mean... it's about wanting the worst system in the world, thus take the opposite trade. (I think I had that system for a while but traded in signal direction... )

I'd be interested if Claude could backtest it though, especially for that particular time?!? as I haven't got access to tradestation. I like statistically significant things as they give an edge - like the opening range being the hi/low for the day, it's not perfect by any means but it's another indicator that goes into the 'pretty useful' pile.
  • #612
  • Edited 11:55am Feb 28, 2006 11:52am | Edited 11:55am
Everyone,
I want to address the price action in most currency pairs that I trade. Lately [past few weeks] market action is some of the worst I have seen in recent memory. Extreme lulls and then comes the 15 minute "drive-by-shooting" followed by more sleeping.

In the 2 major pairs that I trade, gbp/usd and eur/jpy, this type of price action is atypical. The reason I mention this is that it is very important to understand that the 3 concepts of VWB Part II are key in setting up, executing, and then profiting from a trade. When these concepts are missing it becomes very difficult setting up highly profitable trades.

From a risk standpoint, I will play these types of trades pretty close to the vest. You almost have to because key momentum factors are missing. You just can't get sloppy and figure, "Oh well, maybe it will work out OK". This is not how to trade.

Currently, EUR/JPY is sitting at the first extreme fib level. The market never gave us anything off the low [pips of any significance] nor did it exibit any speed or momentum as it languished 30 pips off the low for about 20 hours. A half position seemed prudent, with a limit order to buy the other half if we could get a quick retest of the lows. This didn't happen as the market started to drift higher. Eventually I took a small profit for my troubles and got stopped out on the rest at breakeven.

Not every trade can set-up perfectly according to VWB Part II. If they did we would own the market. For those of you who are new to trading or starting to trade VWB, I want you to keep this in mind as we go forward. Do not get impatient and reach for trades. Please keep your discipline.
vegas
  • #613
  • Feb 28, 2006 12:45pm Feb 28, 2006 12:45pm
Hi Vegas, just wanted to thank you and all the posters in this thread (diallist, bemac, heavyJ, accrete, and everyone else) for your help. I have entered a trade yesterday afternoon at 1.7400 going long GBP/USD. I have now taken two mini lots off for profit of 135 pips each (270 total). The third mini lot has sl moved up to 1.7430. This is great! Now I have a free trade just roaming out there! I'm tempted to cash that third one in too...it'll bring my account to 152% gain in under 30 days! January was pretty good too, but not this good. I am looking at economic indicators for tomorrow: Personal income, personal spending, ... , ... , domestic vehicle sales (see economic calendar). I know this probably belongs in another thread, but I'll ask and be done with it: what do you think we're looking at for crude oil inventories and domestic vehicle sales? I have a feeling I should keep the third mini lot on and let it ride...my hunch is to stay long.

Well, I'm gonna resume with doing my back flips and jumps for joy!! Woo hooooo Cha-ching!!!
  • #614
  • Feb 28, 2006 1:09pm Feb 28, 2006 1:09pm
THX for the signals and info on the EUR/JPY pair today Vegas. This was my first actual trade utilizing the signals and chart-homework. I'm actually still in the trade as i moved my SL to break even a bit late and missed the tag at my entry of 138.02 (it's currenlty rallied back up to 138.24 as i write - LOL - well if you call that a rally!). . . I had my cell set to vibrate and it kept waking my wife up ( don't even go there. grin. ) so i turned it off and missed the S/L to breakeven signal, but did so when i woke at 8amIshPT.

Anyway last nites signals were fun yet still a bit criptic in their acronyms...but i'm getting the hang of them.

Cheers
  • #615
  • Feb 28, 2006 1:34pm Feb 28, 2006 1:34pm
Quoting accrete
THX for the signals and info on the EUR/JPY pair today Vegas. This was my first actual trade utilizing the signals and chart-homework. I'm actually still in the trade as i moved my SL to break even a bit late and missed the tag at my entry of 138.02 (it's currenlty rallied back up to 138.24 as i write - LOL - well if you call that a rally!). . . I had my cell set to vibrate and it kept waking my wife up ( don't even go there. grin. ) so i turned it off and missed the S/L to breakeven signal, but did so when i woke at 8amIshPT.

Anyway last nites signals were fun yet still a bit criptic in their acronyms...but i'm getting the hang of them.

Cheers
accrete,
I'm thinking of inventing a chip that can be installed in your spouses' ear, so that when signals are given [Stepford wives anyone?] they immendiately drop everything they are doing and execute the trade. Were you sleeping honey?

[My wife says she has something to put in my ear but we won't go there.]

HAHA
vegas
  • #616
  • Feb 28, 2006 1:47pm Feb 28, 2006 1:47pm
Quoting vegas
accrete,
I'm thinking of inventing a chip that can be installed in your spouses' ear, so that when signals are given [Stepford wives anyone?] they immendiately drop everything they are doing and execute the trade. Were you sleeping honey?

[My wife says she has something to put in my ear but we won't go there.]

HAHA
LOL: Vegas. Ah the stories we'll tell our grandkids! (er,uh, or won't tell'em)

Your "Stepford wives" idea is not far off. I work from 4pm to 9pm Pacific and my wife is the one who looks at the setups/entries during that time (Asian open)...so i guess i've already got my SW programed. ; - )

We'll be sure to say hello to your little-sister-city (RENO) when we see my wife's family during an upcoming visit. Nevada is our home state and we are ooooo-soooooo-tired of the webbed feet we picked up after moving to the Soggy Oregon Coast 15 years ago to help w/a research grant in Aquaculture. Once the nest is empty in a couple years we're moving back to the dry-state!
  • #617
  • Feb 28, 2006 2:24pm Feb 28, 2006 2:24pm
I entered last night at 137.94, moved sl to 138.00 this morning, then decided to move it to BE to give it some more room, Now stopped out, It was free so why should I care. Waitng for next entry.

You know I already have the chip in my head/ear for real, it is called a
Bionic Ear or Cochlear implant, visit www.bionicear.com. They beat you to it It is not perfect though, but close.
They are actually now working on Blue Tooth connection for the external piece and cell phone.


Quoting vegas
accrete,
I'm thinking of inventing a chip that can be installed in your spouses' ear, so that when signals are given [Stepford wives anyone?] they immendiately drop everything they are doing and execute the trade. Were you sleeping honey?

[My wife says she has something to put in my ear but we won't go there.]

HAHA
  • #618
  • Feb 28, 2006 4:49pm Feb 28, 2006 4:49pm
Quoting dice
Hi Vegas, just wanted to thank you and all the posters in this thread (diallist, bemac, heavyJ, accrete, and everyone else) for your help. I have entered a trade yesterday afternoon at 1.7400 going long GBP/USD. I have now taken two mini lots off for profit of 135 pips each (270 total). The third mini lot has sl moved up to 1.7430. This is great! Now I have a free trade just roaming out there! I'm tempted to cash that third one in too...it'll bring my account to 152% gain in under 30 days! January was pretty good too, but not this good. I am looking at economic indicators for tomorrow: Personal income, personal spending, ... , ... , domestic vehicle sales (see economic calendar). I know this probably belongs in another thread, but I'll ask and be done with it: what do you think we're looking at for crude oil inventories and domestic vehicle sales? I have a feeling I should keep the third mini lot on and let it ride...my hunch is to stay long.

Well, I'm gonna resume with doing my back flips and jumps for joy!! Woo hooooo Cha-ching!!!
Congrats on a successful trade.

Do you mind letting us know what system you were following ?
  • #619
  • Feb 28, 2006 5:06pm Feb 28, 2006 5:06pm
Quoting nutmg12
Congrats on a successful trade.

Do you mind letting us know what system you were following ?

Look at the title..
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #620
  • Feb 28, 2006 5:43pm Feb 28, 2006 5:43pm
Quoting compro99
Look at the title..
Very cute Compro99.

I don't think you've read VWBII. There wasnt a setup yesterday for GBP. I probably should have explained my question.

I think its great Dice had a successful trade but would like to know the thought process behind entering at 1.7400 yesterday.
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