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Trading Major Lines

  • #301
  • Mar 6, 2011 4:41am Mar 6, 2011 4:41am
Quoting zoli
Hi,

the way I see. Commentary on the charts. I have 2 positions and will hold on to them. There is the forever question though. How will I fell if the market comes down and my paper profit goes to zero? Will I chicken out?

I recommend you all to note the followings very carefully:

I was long on EU recently at the following levels:

3043
3353
3396
and some more above these levels.

My entry risk on each of these positions were 20 pips.

So I did exit from these positions as the market went downt till 3427 on 02.14.11.
Assuming...
Quoting zoli
Also watching this pair:
Attachment

Attachment
thank you zoli for your nice inputs..eurnzd looks interesting.
  • #302
  • Mar 6, 2011 4:49am Mar 6, 2011 4:49am
I want to add this after reading zoli's thread about holding positions..
when I first started trading this method I established 5 positions they were all close to each other but I left only one position open and closed others at 100 pips profit thinking I covered all my losing trades and made small profit on top by banking 400 pips.
But later on my only position hit the 1000 pips making me 2.5x more than what I had with other 4 positions..
I put %20 on top of my capital with single position but IF I did let other positions run then I would've doubled my account easily..
  • #303
  • Mar 6, 2011 4:49am Mar 6, 2011 4:49am
I am confident in saying that the method Nomask is representing (also see the threads he mentioned before) is a serious way to make money. Because if through practicing and learning we are able to enter the market with low risk easily, it is also not a big deal to hold on to the positions.

What a lesson to me!

================

To me too ! Great charts zol, I don`t quite understand how you had so many positions early on in EU and still no substantial profits ? Did you pull the stop to breakeven ? This money management question is one that Nomask hopefully will talk about - because what we are doing is searching for low-risk entry opportunities in order to HOLD on to a trade for larger gains than just scalping.

Also with eurnzd : as with my example gbpjpy we have to be very careful, trading any crosses usually requires a good understanding of all the major pairs involved in the cross. I usually stay away from them, and the stops would have to be much wider than with the majors, eg. EU.


I will post more charts coming week. Everyone a nice Sunday !

( Edit : taking the example of GBPCHF, here you have 9 variations that anyone who trades crosses with larger positions should know. That`s why I normally stay away...... Chart by Pipsqueak4x)



________________
michael
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Be like water.
  • #304
  • Mar 6, 2011 5:20am Mar 6, 2011 5:20am
Quoting ava_ind
Based on what I understood from this thread, I have setup following on my charts. Can someone please confirm, what I did is right as per the explanations given in this thread?
Hello ava..
what I look for is price action in the same direction on all three timeframes being weekly,4hr and 5min..

this pair seemed like not the best to trade but I tried to analyse it per method.
hope it helps..
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  • #305
  • Mar 6, 2011 5:25am Mar 6, 2011 5:25am
Quoting ava_ind
Based on what I understood from this thread, I have setup following on my charts. Can someone please confirm, what I did is right as per the explanations given in this thread?
Ava Ind, my 2 cents.
Weelky is our hindsight, you don't say if you are shortor long, it would seem you are short and are talking about the weekly bar prior to last week. Week 21-25 Feb,
Last weeks bar was an inside bar. (Week 28Feb - 4 March)
If I were trading GBPCHF, I would need to see a brake of 149.00 as I see support there too.
So I would be watching in the next week the four hour and 5 min chart.
I would be watching for Price action off Fib levels.
I post some charts on how my week may have unfolded if I were trading this Pair.
Nomask, if I have anything wrong please say so or if I have oversteped the mark in responding here again plase say.
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  • #306
  • Mar 6, 2011 5:28am Mar 6, 2011 5:28am
Quoting msmarple
I am confident in saying that the method Nomask is representing (also see the threads he mentioned before) is a serious way to make money. Because if through practicing and learning we are able to enter the market with low risk easily, it is also not a big deal to hold on to the positions.

What a lesson to me!

================

To me too ! Great charts zol, I don`t quite understand how you had so many positions early on in EU and still no substantial profits ? Did you pull the stop to breakeven ? This money management question is one...
thank you michael for your inputs.
I agree with you on crossed pairs too..
They usually just give out intense headache instead of nice profits.
I made almost all nice profits on eu..Its the most descent pair I find (not because It pays me well.look at its charts not much spikes you'll see)

money management is the easiest part of the method even though its totally up to personal expectancy,trading skills,trading capital,...etc..
I'll try to write later on today after I spend sometime with my little monster..
see you guys later
  • #307
  • Mar 6, 2011 5:44am Mar 6, 2011 5:44am
Quoting msmarple
To me too ! Great charts zol, I don`t quite understand how you had so many positions early on in EU and still no substantial profits ? Did you pull the stop to breakeven ? This money management question is one that Nomask hopefully will talk about - because what we are doing is searching for low-risk entry opportunities in order to HOLD on to a trade for larger gains than just scalping.

Also with eurnzd : as with my example gbpjpy we have to be very careful, trading any crosses usually requires a good understanding of all the major pairs involved...
Hi Michael,

very treu, the crosses have wider spreads and more erratic movements.
Couriously to my previous positions, I am still underwater. This is the reason I have this learning account with real money. You see, I still need to find out from myself some elements of my trading. Apperently I am able to enter in a quite acceptable way on occasions. But that does not mean profits. Profits come when I exit.

Anyways, I am not overly worried about trading crosses, though a 10 pip entry on EURNZD is quite a jocke as my spread is bigger than that.
What is important, though, is the tightness of the entry. I do not allways know it well. In my position I did risk 80 pips. I am up now 588. I knew if I will pass the 80 and the BE point this pair may fly. Id did so far. Sure, it can also collapse just like that.
Kind Regards zol
  • #308
  • Mar 6, 2011 5:44am Mar 6, 2011 5:44am
Nomask & Red-Dragon thanks for your input. I think, I am getting even more clarity & understanding on the method.

I did not trade in that pair yet, since last week was an inside bar, took the previous week's long red candle as setup bar and would be watching for PA this week. Shall enter if any break down happens from the levels mentioned.

Thanks, once again.
  • #309
  • Mar 6, 2011 8:04am Mar 6, 2011 8:04am
Quoting RED-Dragon
Ava Ind, my 2 cents.
Weelky is our hindsight, you don't say if you are shortor long, it would seem you are short and are talking about the weekly bar prior to last week. Week 21-25 Feb,
Last weeks bar was an inside bar. (Week 28Feb - 4 March)
If I were trading GBPCHF, I would need to see a brake of 149.00 as I see support there too.
So I would be watching in the next week the four hour and 5 min chart.
I would be watching for Price action off Fib levels.
I post some charts on how my week may have unfolded if I were trading this Pair.
Nomask,...
thank you red..good charts with good presentation..
  • #310
  • Mar 6, 2011 8:37am Mar 6, 2011 8:37am
Continuing of the money management issue..

riks/reward ratio
I don't think there is any question about risk/reward ratio since the method is about getting in trades with 5-15 pips stop (depending on the entry setup) and chasing around thousand pips (depending on your entry and where the next major number is) giving us a wide range of 20x to 300x times bigger reward eventually..
I did catch over thousand pips profit trades couple times with less than 10 pip-risked positions.most recent one was the move from 1.4 level to 1.3 on eurusd.It took me 5 weeks to reach my target.

lot size
But during your attempts to get in a move you'll have some losing attempts that will give you a clue about the lot size you should be using..
after paper trading maybe 100 trades then you can have a nice data of your maximum drawdown and average stop loss that you need to define your lot size.
my average loss is about 7 pips and the lot size that I most feel comfortable is 0.1 lot for a 5000 usd account or 1 lot for a 50k account..

some may think its too conservative but again its all up to your personality and trading skills however for a 50k account when you make your first thousand pips with a single position that's equal to 10k.
the bonus of this method is added positions after your first entry..
Graeme, the owner of the thread called "building millipede equity" has a very aggresive way of stacking which I'm impressed but don't think it fits to my trading style.when I feel comfortable with stacking aggresively maybe I can try as well but nothing soon yet.

winning rate
for sure you'll have very low winning rate while you still add some nice profits on top of your capital with that huge reward/risk ratio...

so you need to paper trade (for any method out there) the method to gather your own trading data to build up your money management.
  • #311
  • Mar 6, 2011 9:42am Mar 6, 2011 9:42am
Quoting nomask
Continuing of the money management issue..

riks/reward ratio
I don't think there is any question about risk/reward ratio since the method is about getting in trades with 5-15 pips stop (depending on the entry setup) and chasing around thousand pips (depending on your entry and where the next major number is) giving us a wide range of 20x to 300x times bigger reward eventually..
I did catch over thousand pips profit trades couple times with less than 10 pip-risked positions.most recent one was the move from 1.4 level to 1.3 on eurusd.It took...
Hello Nomask,

Thank you for touching this subject. IMO, as long as we risk 5 - 15 pips, we will not lose so much if price turn negative. Good thing about this method is, you risk so little to aim for big rewards.
-happyTrading, maaj-
  • #312
  • Mar 6, 2011 7:54pm Mar 6, 2011 7:54pm
Nomask - I've been following your strategy and think it's very interesting because rather use the Fibonacci levels. According to his analysis as you see the EURO for this week?
Big hug and congratulations on the topic.
  • #313
  • Mar 7, 2011 3:17am Mar 7, 2011 3:17am
Hello Fellow Traders,

It is an interesting day today. Price is testing 1.4000 level for the 3rd time (as per my time zone on 4hr charts). Can we expect volatile breakout towards UP? Or will it reverse towards 1.3000 again?.

I am just waiting for right price action / setup. I guess Nomask have some thing to say.
-happyTrading, maaj-
  • #314
  • Mar 7, 2011 3:33am Mar 7, 2011 3:33am
Quoting maaj
Hello Fellow Traders,

It is an interesting day today. Price is testing 1.4000 level for the 3rd time (as per my time zone on 4hr charts). Can we expect volatile breakout towards UP? Or will it reverse towards 1.3000 again?.

I am just waiting for right price action / setup. I guess Nomask have some thing to say.

I LIKE THE 1HR SETUP..my sl currently at BE tp 1.4080-1.4130
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #315
  • Mar 7, 2011 3:38am Mar 7, 2011 3:38am
Quoting neltonbenke
Nomask - I've been following your strategy and think it's very interesting because rather use the Fibonacci levels. According to his analysis as you see the EURO for this week?
Big hug and congratulations on the topic.
thank you nelton..

Quoting maaj
Hello Fellow Traders,

It is an interesting day today. Price is testing 1.4000 level for the 3rd time (as per my time zone on 4hr charts). Can we expect volatile breakout towards UP? Or will it reverse towards 1.3000 again?.

I am just waiting for right price action / setup. I guess Nomask have some thing to say.
thats how I see the things at this moment..
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  • #316
  • Mar 7, 2011 3:43am Mar 7, 2011 3:43am
Quoting nomask
thank you nelton..



thats how I see the things at this moment..
one more thing.

I'd be extra cautious about any entry based on 4hr..
maybe one or two attempts to get in but nothing aggressive since we do not have a weekly candle that breaking the level of 1.4000 yet.
We just assume that current weekly candle that we're in may turn out a nice bullish candle after our early entry..
If it hesitates to do so I will not spend much money on it
  • #317
  • Mar 7, 2011 3:58am Mar 7, 2011 3:58am
Quoting nomask
one more thing.

I'd be extra cautious about any entry based on 4hr..
maybe one or two attempts to get in but nothing aggressive since we do not have a weekly candle that breaking the level of 1.4000 yet.
We just assume that current weekly candle that we're in may turn out a nice bullish candle after our early entry..
If it hesitates to do so I will not spend much money on it
Hello Nomask,

I think above post is very important.

'do not have a weekly candle that breaking the level of 1.4000 yet' this sentence tells whats this system is all-about. We can't blindly take trade just because we see possitive 4hr. candle, we need to make sure weekly hindsight is right.

Thank you..
-happyTrading, maaj-
  • #318
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:12am Mar 7, 2011 4:12am
Quoting nomask
one more thing.

I'd be extra cautious about any entry based on 4hr..
maybe one or two attempts to get in but nothing aggressive since we do not have a weekly candle that breaking the level of 1.4000 yet.
We just assume that current weekly candle that we're in may turn out a nice bullish candle after our early entry..
If it hesitates to do so I will not spend much money on it
Hi Nomask,

Would I be right in thinking we would like a 4H close above 1.4 then look for a 50% retracement of that candle, then watch for 5M price action to go long?

thanks, Steve.
  • #319
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:43am Mar 7, 2011 4:43am
Quoting Arnold49
Hi Nomask,

Would I be right in thinking we would like a 4H close above 1.4 then look for a 50% retracement of that candle, then watch for 5M price action to go long?

thanks, Steve.
this method needs a weekly setup candle for our hindsight.
once we're biased in one direction then we look for a 4h price action and 5min entry off the 4hr candle.
But currently we do not have such weekly candle signaling that price moving from 1.4000 level to 1.5000 yet..
maybe just a good looking 4hr candle.
my latest weekly setup candle is the one (2011.02.13) sitting on 1.3500 level engulfing last 3 bearish candles..
However since we're dealing with very small stop loss I sometimes try testing the water with little attempts based on 4hr..
But this is not an essential part of the method and it requires extra discipline not to over trade..
It is best to wait to get a weekly confirmation first..and this is how I mainly trade.
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  • #320
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:21am Mar 7, 2011 5:21am
Quoting nomask
this method needs a weekly setup candle for our hindsight.
once we're biased in one direction then we look for a 4h price action and 5min entry off the 4hr candle.
But currently we do not have such weekly candle signaling that price moving from 1.4000 level to 1.5000 yet..
maybe just a good looking 4hr candle.
my latest weekly setup candle is the one (2011.02.13) sitting on 1.3500 level engulfing last 3 bearish candles..
However since we're dealing with very small stop loss I sometimes try testing the water with little attempts based on 4hr..
But...
Hi nomask

Don't you regard the green weekly candle crossing 1.2 level as set-up bar?
Regards
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