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Price is everything

  • #11,381
  • Mar 5, 2011 10:53am Mar 5, 2011 10:53am
Quoting budak baru
looking forward to your post.
Here is my chart and comments on this pair -

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  • #11,382
  • Mar 5, 2011 10:58am Mar 5, 2011 10:58am
Quoting AcidH4X
guys we r in weekly strong supply zone so i think its good to short ..
I am waiting for confirmation first! If you open the monthly, you can see we have had a bull run since June 2010 and there are no signs yet that it is weakening!
  • #11,383
  • Mar 5, 2011 10:59am Mar 5, 2011 10:59am
On Thursday Red published some trades that dropped in the wrong direction. I think it was long Aussie, cable and gold as some dollar strength came back into the market.

I learnt that he was cool letting them run as his trade plan was still working as prices remained in the demand zone. He used this to his advantage as be purchased more at a better price. He closed the trades around the break even level of his first entry, but because he took the opportunity to buy at a better price, he still made his margin.

In planning my trades next week, I am going to take this into account in placing my stops at a level which is based on previous zones.

Ive never thought about it like this, its a bit cheeky but a smart move. Slick Player.
  • #11,384
  • Mar 5, 2011 11:09am Mar 5, 2011 11:09am
Quoting AcidH4X
guys we r in weekly strong supply zone so i think its good to short ..
Fading trends is a common mistake and one that I have done on numerous occassions. I see that you have a sell at ~1.3725ish that is 250 pips underwater. Then you have hedged it with a buy at ~1.3860ish, leaving you with a hedge of ~150 pips underwater and paying swap rates on it every day.

Cut your losses short...50 pips maximum! When the market tells you that you are wrong, then accept your losses gracefully. Let your winners run!

If you had cut your sell at a 50 pips loss and with the same buy, you would be looking at green pips overall right now! Just a thought!
  • #11,385
  • Mar 5, 2011 11:23am Mar 5, 2011 11:23am
Quoting AcidH4X
guys we r in weekly strong supply zone so i think its good to short ..
Don't get me wrong... I am also looking to short soon, but doing so with caution and keep referring back to the higher timeframe charts for clues.

If you are going to fade trends, ensure you do so at extremes or wait for confirmation on the lower timeframes, ensure you take profit off the table and let your last runner do its thing! If you get stopped out at BE or at the original SL, go look up higher for the next opportunity and consult the higher timeframe charts first!
  • #11,386
  • Mar 5, 2011 11:37am Mar 5, 2011 11:37am
u r right sir....

I am not good at swing trading but i am trading in short tf (5,15,30min) ..but i always watch the higher TF for trend...

Thanks


Quoting bbakker
Don't get me wrong... I am also looking to short soon, but doing so with caution and keep referring back to the higher timeframe charts for clues.

If you are going to fade trends, ensure you do so at extremes or wait for confirmation on the lower timeframes, ensure you take profit off the table and let your last runner do its thing! If you get stopped out at BE or at the original SL, go look up higher for the next opportunity and consult the higher timeframe charts first!
  • #11,387
  • Mar 5, 2011 11:42am Mar 5, 2011 11:42am
I know we cant get a trade plan for this week from a daily chart, but shows you we are plus/minus 100 pips to next supply zone and a futher 250 off to the next one.

Looks more like compression on the daily as opposed to respecting the channel but who knows.

Ft.com published a video on there site going over the Euro and Portugal on Thursday I think and they seem to give the impression we are only days away from a EU bail out for Portugal, but maybe as the limelight stays on Libya, dollars and oil, they may last a bit longer.
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  • #11,388
  • Mar 5, 2011 11:43am Mar 5, 2011 11:43am
Quoting Decimal
On Thursday Red published some trades that dropped in the wrong direction. I think it was long Aussie, cable and gold as some dollar strength came back into the market.

I learnt that he was cool letting them run as his trade plan was still working as prices remained in the demand zone. He used this to his advantage as be purchased more at a better price. He closed the trades around the break even level of his first entry, but because he took the opportunity to buy at a better price, he still made his margin.

In planning my trades next week,...
In order to do this, require you have a big account or you trade small lot at once, then put in the rest if price goes as your plan. For me, because of my small account size, I wouldn't fancy to do it, especially enter @ the better price of a losing trade. RED must have reason to do that and they are all strong supply/demand zones. I didn't reach that level to have the ball to do this just yet...
  • #11,389
  • Mar 5, 2011 11:56am Mar 5, 2011 11:56am
Quoting duyk20
In order to do this, require you have a big account or you trade small lot at once, then put in the rest if price goes as your plan. For me, because of my small account size, I wouldn't fancy to do it, especially enter @ the better price of a losing trade. RED must have reason to do that and they are all strong supply/demand zones. I didn't reach that level to have the ball to do this just yet...

I think the important point is the trade is still valid to hold as long as it remains in the zone/price band. Obviously a breach of that zone or other correlations would result in a failed trade. Its key to ensure that the patterns on lower TF charts confirm your trade plan through the PA patterns we recognise and at that time you have a option of buying at better prices and worse case getting out at entry.
  • #11,390
  • Mar 5, 2011 12:01pm Mar 5, 2011 12:01pm
Quoting AcidH4X
u r right sir....

I am not good at swing trading but i am trading in short tf (5,15,30min) ..but i always watch the higher TF for trend...

Thanks
I am quite the opposite whereby I generally work off the higher timeframes and go to the lower timeframes for entry and a tighter SL to give me a better R/R ratio, but this is my style and you need to find the style that suits you best. This gives me about 3-5 trades a week at the most and as I work full-time, it fits quite nicely around my working hours and I don't need to check my charts every 5 mins once I am in a trade. Once a day will suffice once my runner is off!

Swing trading is done on all timeframes, whether it is off the m5 or w1, you are always looking to buy low (wholesales prices) and sell high (retail prices). The difference is that you will get many more opportunities for buying and selling on the lower timeframes, it is also the sharp-end of the trading stick!

Of the higher timeframes you can have hours, sometimes even days to make a decision, whereas at the lower timeframes you have to have quicker reactions to adapt to the market conditions.

I wish you success with your trading!
  • #11,391
  • Edited 2:12pm Mar 5, 2011 12:08pm | Edited 2:12pm
Quoting Decimal
I know we cant get a trade plan for this week from a daily chart, but shows you we are plus/minus 100 pips to next supply zone and a futher 250 off to the next one.

Looks more like compression on the daily as opposed to respecting the channel but who knows.

Ft.com published a video on there site going over the Euro and Portugal on Thursday I think and they seem to give the impression we are only days away from a EU bail out for Portugal, but maybe as the limelight stays on Libya, dollars and oil, they may last a bit longer.
Supply zone 1 looks really nice Just because it looks nice, doesn't mean it will work, but this is the area I will be looking at next week! P.S. I might even put a set and forget order here!

Edit: I know it is a contradiction in terms as I stated earlier that I was looking for confirmation on this pair, but I have rules in place, if and when I place a set-and-forget or whether I wait for confirmation, although these rules are not quite set in stone yet. Some are based on gut instinct although I will reduce risk on a set-and-forget order by going for extremes and therefore enabling me to reduce the size of the SL that will also enable me to get my 3:1 quicker. I am prepared to remove it, if PA arrival is not to my liking.
  • #11,392
  • Mar 5, 2011 12:22pm Mar 5, 2011 12:22pm
If we dont get a break of the range and support is respected, theres no reason why we could look at lower TF charts and look for some entries off support for 25 pip scalps long.

The overall trend on this pair is negative off H4 and Daily, so we should keep looking for the breakout for a entry south. I guess we would monitor sterling correlations with cable and gbp/jpy.
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  • #11,393
  • Mar 5, 2011 12:24pm Mar 5, 2011 12:24pm
Hello people. i might give it a shot with small position for a few days. Parabolic move, cci divergence, fib, supply zone, channel, NZD subject to correction. Could be fun.
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Hello.
  • #11,394
  • Mar 5, 2011 12:55pm Mar 5, 2011 12:55pm
Quoting Decimal
Friday closed with a shooting star on the daily. Lets see what Monday gives us. We can see if we have two strong bear engulfing patterns at the end of last year at current trading prices.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=90804
  • #11,395
  • Mar 5, 2011 12:57pm Mar 5, 2011 12:57pm
USDCAD
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  • #11,396
  • Mar 5, 2011 1:01pm Mar 5, 2011 1:01pm
Quoting emene
Hello people. i might give it a shot with small position for a few days. Parabolic move, cci divergence, fib, supply zone, channel, NZD subject to correction. Could be fun.
The spread is a killer on this one but it can move fast in both directions due to lack of liquidity. Seems like a lot of pairs are in areas of interest right now. I find cross pair analysis quite useful to determine which pair I should trade. I would use NZDUSD and GBPUSD pairs for my cross pair analysis on this pair. This pair will give you a fun ride, that is for sure!
  • #11,397
  • Mar 5, 2011 2:47pm Mar 5, 2011 2:47pm
I like this guy! Plenty of excellent articles to read and to question yourself on. I am sure you can attribute some of your Forex experiences in relation to one of his articles. Highly recommended!

http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/articles.htm

That's it for me this weekend. I won't be around on Sunday Open as I am always somewhere else for that! I wish you all success with your trading!
  • #11,398
  • Mar 5, 2011 2:50pm Mar 5, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting bbakker
I like this guy! Plenty of excellent articles to read and to question yourself on. I am sure you can attribute some of your Forex experiences in relation to one of his articles. Highly recommended!

http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/articles.htm

That's it for me this weekend. I won't be around on Sunday Open as I am always somewhere else for that! I wish you all success with your trading!
Cheers B., have fun. ..
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #11,399
  • Mar 5, 2011 3:05pm Mar 5, 2011 3:05pm
Quoting bbakker
The spread is a killer on this one but it can move fast in both directions due to lack of liquidity. Seems like a lot of pairs are in areas of interest right now. I find cross pair analysis quite useful to determine which pair I should trade. I would use NZDUSD and GBPUSD pairs for my cross pair analysis on this pair. This pair will give you a fun ride, that is for sure!
From experience, the spread is at least on par with the volatility. That move up from the bottom is around 2000 pips.
  • #11,400
  • Mar 5, 2011 3:11pm Mar 5, 2011 3:11pm
i would say, we are a group of sad people LOL
i thought it was only me trying to figure out my charts over the weekend
ok about EU, i agree with Mr Baker, as i see the weekly TL is broken and the huge orders will be placed somewhere at the Supply zone just above it.
But hey, there is only one way to find out. Watch what the PA tells you.
looking forward to another great week with all of you.
I will post some more charts in a bit.
more then welcome to comment, and express your views
HK

Quoting bbakker
I am waiting for confirmation first! If you open the monthly, you can see we have had a bull run since June 2010 and there are no signs yet that it is weakening!
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