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  • #14,941
  • Edited 9:09am Mar 4, 2011 8:43am | Edited 9:09am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Looks like it was weak!
Yup ... hindsight shows sellers at the peak, and I'd estimate the ramp up was due to positive NFP expectations. So, profit taking for now. FWIW when I also saw the white UTL didn't hold, I bailed on most of my longs, probably should have done it ~15 pips sooner.

EDIT: Just catching up on forexlive and thought I'd post their update on this:

Very good selling of USD/JPY second time up Written by Jamie Coleman March 4, 2011 at 14:30 GMT
USD/JPY’s bounce to the 82.85/87 area toward 14:00 GMT was sold into heavily, traders report. Rather than slice and dice every trade into a hundred pieces, large trades were going through at one clip, a rarity in this day and age. This suggests actual human intervention rather than just artificial intelligence at work. Easier US yields are helping weigh on USD/JPY along with seasonal factors ahead of fiscal year-end in Japan… we’re now down toward 82.55. Stops are lower, around the 82.25 area, we hear.

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  • #14,942
  • Mar 4, 2011 8:44am Mar 4, 2011 8:44am
Quoting pres78
15 min close above, now waiting to see if we receive a signal and trigger to get in long since we are yet well under normal ADR...
Any entry would be way to close to 1.4 so will wait to get above and then test that level for entry long.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,943
  • Mar 4, 2011 8:56am Mar 4, 2011 8:56am
Quoting tgwhbb
hey guys, been a while since i've posted here...regarding the 15M NFP hidden UT bar...my broker's volume for that bar is extremely low. Its the highest bar of the day for sure, but still on the low side for any 15M bar for this time of day over the entire week. Is that not indicative of a test for supply, but not finding any? So it would appear that SM have successfully removed supply at this level, opening the door for further upside movement.
The futures have high volume (relative) but under half of yesterday's big move volume.

I would have thought this upthrust was more buying, than testing for supply. We're poking through 1.4 now but we're not seeing massive supply. We might see some positions closed for the weekend though - Europe and London close soon.

I think this will be closing above 1.4 today.
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,944
  • Mar 4, 2011 8:58am Mar 4, 2011 8:58am
I see Trichet is talking again in 25 minutes - might see some action then.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,945
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:00am Mar 4, 2011 9:00am
Quoting Steve Gill
The futures have high volume (relative) but under half of yesterday's big move volume.

I would have thought this upthrust was more buying, than testing for supply. We're poking through 1.4 now but we're not seeing massive supply. We might see some positions closed for the weekend though - Europe and London close soon.

I think this will be closing above 1.4 today.
Agreed
  • #14,946
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:06am Mar 4, 2011 9:06am
Quoting Steve Gill
The futures have high volume (relative) but under half of yesterday's big move volume.

I would have thought this upthrust was more buying, than testing for supply. We're poking through 1.4 now but we're not seeing massive supply. We might see some positions closed for the weekend though - Europe and London close soon.

I think this will be closing above 1.4 today.
A weekly close above 1.4 and next week we could easily re-test that old 2010 high. IMHO if we haven't gotten an hourly close above it before London close (last 1hr bar for me closed right at 1.4) we may retrace into 3970 area and not reach the ADR. Trichet may just give it the bump needed to get up and close above though.

If (and that's a big if) ECB does hike rates on April 7th that 2009 high around 5140 could very well be tested sooner than later. (4 weeks and 1100 pips is very reachable based on AWR)
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,947
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:23am Mar 4, 2011 9:23am
Quoting pres78
A weekly close above 1.4 and next week we could easily re-test that old 2010 high. IMHO if we haven't gotten an hourly close above it before London close (last 1hr bar for me closed right at 1.4) we may retrace into 3970 area and not reach the ADR. Trichet may just give it the bump needed to get up and close above though.

If (and that's a big if) ECB does hike rates on April 7th that 2009 high around 5140 could very well be tested sooner than later. (4 weeks and 1100 pips is very reachable based on AWR)
Or we'll retrace there now
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,948
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:23am Mar 4, 2011 9:23am
Pres, I miss ya, how are you doing???
Just made a few pips on that eu long
  • #14,949
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:24am Mar 4, 2011 9:24am
Quoting duyk20
Pres, I miss ya, how are you doing???
Just made a few pips on that eu long
Very well... one quick trade today on GU for 30 pips but haven't seen an entry I liked on EU thus far.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,950
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:25am Mar 4, 2011 9:25am
Quoting pres78
Or we'll retrace there now
Why are you choosing 1.3970 as support? Just interested in your rules defining support and resistance levels.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,951
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:25am Mar 4, 2011 9:25am
I know its not our favorite pair but has anybody taken a look at the UsdJpy? I can see some great vsa principles on that chart.
  • #14,952
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:28am Mar 4, 2011 9:28am
Quoting Steve Gill
Why are you choosing 1.3970 as support? Just interested in your rules defining support and resistance levels.
50 fib retrace of today's H/L... didn't say it was support per say I said if we didn't get a close above 1.4 I could see a retrace into 3970 area which would be a 38.2 - 50 fib retrace of today's move and very common after the days top is in place... it could go further down than that... just a target that I watch since I utilize fibs in my trading.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,953
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:29am Mar 4, 2011 9:29am
Quoting Steve Gill
Why are you choosing 1.3970 as support? Just interested in your rules defining support and resistance levels.
Because it's area of candle cluster, and also 50% fib retracement
It's also a very important area to note, well respected in the past
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  • #14,954
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:30am Mar 4, 2011 9:30am
Quoting pres78
If (and that's a big if) ECB does hike rates on April 7th that 2009 high around 5140 could very well be tested sooner than later. (4 weeks and 1100 pips is very reachable based on AWR)
It's not that certain as he says. They may but they also may not. All depends on inflation rate which already is more than 2% (which is the ceiling set by ECB). It is 2,4% atm if I remeber correctly. We will see at the end of March. Till then price will be in a ranging mode again I'm afraid.
  • #14,955
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:30am Mar 4, 2011 9:30am
Quoting Sonofsin5
I know its not our favorite pair but has anybody taken a look at the UsdJpy? I can see some great vsa principles on that chart.
Yeah, shared a few comments with Beljevina a couple of pages back, looked for a short entry but didn't get one personally (on 20min charts)
  • #14,956
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:32am Mar 4, 2011 9:32am
Quoting duyk20
Because it's area of candle cluster, and also 50% fib retracement
It's also a very important area to note, well respected in the past
M1... gotta be quick. Where's the volume?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,957
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:33am Mar 4, 2011 9:33am
Quoting 1pipperhour
It's not that certain as he says. They may but they also may not. All depends on inflation rate which already is more than 2% (which is the ceiling set by ECB). It is 2,4% atm if I remeber correctly. We will see at the end of March. Till then price will be in a ranging mode again I'm afraid.
Agree fully, I was more just throwing out one possible scenario to fill the time since I am not in any trades
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,958
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:34am Mar 4, 2011 9:34am
Quoting pres78
M1... gotta be quick. Where's the volume?
The volume is in another platform I look a lot at 1m chart now Also, because it's after news, price react so quickly, gotta see how they do in 1m chart to take action, enter or exit
  • #14,959
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:36am Mar 4, 2011 9:36am
Quoting duyk20
The volume is in another platform I look a lot at 1m chart now Also, because it's after news, price react so quickly, gotta see how they do in 1m chart to take action, enter or exit
Yes I too have dropped all the way from 15min down to 1min and taken entries... moves really fast though.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,960
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:42am Mar 4, 2011 9:42am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Yeah, shared a few comments with Beljevina a couple of pages back, looked for a short entry but didn't get one personally (on 20min charts)
I get really picky with entries on Friday, essp after NFP. Here is what I want on a 15 m chart for a short. EUr looks to be hit with decent supply here, any move up now will have to be substantial and quick to get past the new top we have made today.
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