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vsa with Malcolm

  • #14,901
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:02am Mar 4, 2011 6:02am
Quoting Steve Gill
I'm nowhere....
same here, im new to this stuff too..
my mouth got me into trouble again, i need to post a chart now.
since vsa is difficult to explain/understand without an illustration

this is IBFX demo (hope the chart's clearly visible)
*green vertical lines show downbars with ultra high vol (white bars)
*red vertical lines show downbars with above average vol.
a very quick deduction on my part, is that these downbars are buying (strength).
notice my chart spans several days more than yours (which is only upto Feb.28. i think u need to look further back (particularly in gbpusd's current scenario) to study the background.

also, u have to consider 2 things:
-Asian vol is minimal, so dont put too much weight on Asian vol./action
-we have NFP in a few hours... this might partially explain why volume is not 'substantial' as u noted

just my view
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  • #14,902
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:19am Mar 4, 2011 6:19am
Quoting supremeChaos
same here, im new to this stuff too..
my mouth got me into trouble again, i need to post a chart now.
since vsa is difficult to explain/understand without an illustration

this is IBFX demo (hope the chart's clearly visible)
*green vertical lines show downbars with ultra high vol (white bars)
*red vertical lines show downbars with above average vol.
a very quick deduction on my part, is that these downbars are buying (strength).
notice my chart spans several days more than yours (which is only upto Feb.28. i think u need to look further back...
Very good point imo. In a larger view it seems that it has been accumulating and we should see higher prices soon again (don't take my word on that).
  • #14,903
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:23am Mar 4, 2011 6:23am
Quoting amletit
Your analysis are always very interesting. Time to raise the pip per hour in your nick?
Thanks. This fcuking cold winter (ok well today it is 0 celsius) keeps me inside reading books and some VSA thread's people's historical posts and analysing their posted charts (damn it's boring if you see one thing over and over again )
  • #14,904
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:28am Mar 4, 2011 6:28am
Quoting 1pipperhour
..In a larger view it seems that it has been accumulating and we should see higher prices soon again (don't take my word on that).
it's US NFP day, so anything can happen.
let's see..
  • #14,905
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:29am Mar 4, 2011 6:29am
Quoting Aspire
Mal wrote
"lol.....I thought as much .. deleted the candles all together. who needs to see price anyway ...macd rocks and will help me lose money faster than anything "

I know you don't really care how other people trade and this is not going to rock your world and frazzle your brain, but take a look over at woodiescciclub.com
The true hardcore members DON'T have price on their charts. One indicator and nothing else !

Where's your website....MalsVeryStrangeAnalysisClub.com
Hello Aspire: Good morning. An interesting, but unimportant, bit of trivia related to VSA is that Gavin Holmes of Trade Guider recommends a book called Stikky Stock Charts by Laurance Holt. In his book, Holt insults people who use Fibonacci ratios as "kooks" all the while claiming that diagonal trend lines have merit, a claim unsupported by evidence other than anecdotal experience. The lesson is one trader's absurdity is another's bread and butter. The CCI, diagonal trend line and Fibonacci folks claim their techniques make money for them. Hey great. It keeps them off unemployment and probably inclines them to favor Capitalism over Socialism. Those are good things. So is VSA. It transcends other techniques and renders indicators and lines unnecessary clutter.

Good Trading and Many Pips to You My Friends
  • #14,906
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:30am Mar 4, 2011 6:30am
Quoting Steve Gill
Looking at the volume on this upmove towards the POC, I'm not seeing strength here

Compare with volume from yesterday.

Good point to short? I'm not paying attention to GU so I'm no expert, but this post is reply to willkohsg's question.

If I was trading this I'd be shorting below a successful no demand or upthrust with my SL around 1.6295 (above where we had clear previous weakness), for full disclosure
Now I personally took the opposite approach and saw the accumulation along and inability to break the daily support level 1 at 6240 followed by a strong, increased vol up bar closing on it's high and then a NS on the 15min chart (as seen on your chart also).

Entered on the next candle which broke the high... Only took 1 lot since it is NFP day and until then we are tightly coiled so I set my SL at the daily low 6236 (low of 2 - 15 min candles, with the second one having lower vol than the first giving me confirmation of no interest in going lower ATM), entry was at 6266 and TP was at 6296. I had a my trade set to go to BE after 15 pips as the TP was above the daily high and well on a day like today... who knows what could happen.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,907
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:33am Mar 4, 2011 6:33am
Quoting supremeChaos
it's US NFP day, so anything can happen.
let's see..
Very true. Can't wait.
  • #14,908
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:34am Mar 4, 2011 6:34am
Quoting supremeChaos
also, u have to consider 2 things:
-Asian vol is minimal, so dont put too much weight on Asian vol./action
-we have NFP in a few hours... this might partially explain why volume is not 'substantial' as u noted

just my view
Attachment
I'm ignoring asia volume - but the low volume I'm talking about is London.

Although NFP is in a few hours I'm a believer that SM positions themselves pre NFP to take advantage of the news. We've got clear supply present above the current price (well the current price as of the time we posted these charts - its moved up now but hit supply again). So if SM plans to push price up during NFP they're either going to have to absorb the supply or sell into it themselves.

I stand by my analysis for now, but I'm glad I play by Gavin's rules to place sell orders below the bar on no demands etc or buy orders above the bar on no supplys etc depending on what you're doing - that would have kept me out of that trade.

My big problem is that it appears that I'm disagreeing with Dr G which scares the hell out of me!!! So I'm presuming I've got something wrong but I'm not 100% clear yet what.
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,909
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:41am Mar 4, 2011 6:41am
Quoting pres78
Now I personally took the opposite approach and saw the accumulation along and inability to break the daily support level 1 at 6240 followed by a strong, increased vol up bar closing on it's high and then a NS on the 15min chart (as seen on your chart also).

Entered on the next candle which broke the high... Only took 1 lot since it is NFP day and until then we are tightly coiled so I set my SL at the daily low 6236 (low of 2 - 15 min candles, with the second one having lower vol than the first giving me confirmation of no interest in going...
Interesting stuff and I appreciate you posting this - I find its opposite views like this that help us learn, assuming we're all playing by VSA rules. I have no problem being proven wrong, but I want and hope to learn what I was reading incorrectly on the charts.

What was your target? Are you short term trading aka did you jump out at the SOW on the 15 minute or are you holding for post NFP?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,910
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:42am Mar 4, 2011 6:42am
Quoting rbumbalough
The CCI, diagonal trend line and Fibonacci folks claim their techniques make money for them. Hey great. It keeps them off unemployment and probably inclines them to favor Capitalism over Socialism. Those are good things. So is VSA. It transcends other techniques and renders indicators and lines unnecessary clutter.

Actually diagonal trendlines are part of VSA. There are 18 pages about trendlines in MTM and TW starts analysis with drawing a trendchannel.
  • #14,911
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:46am Mar 4, 2011 6:46am
Quoting Steve Gill
...
My big problem is that....
it shouldnt be a problem. u should view it as an opportunity to learn &/or improve, regardless if he is or you are correct.
  • #14,912
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:46am Mar 4, 2011 6:46am
Quoting supremeChaos
it shouldnt be a problem. u should view it as an opportunity to learn &/or improve, regardless if he is or you are correct.
Wise words - agreed
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,913
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:52am Mar 4, 2011 6:52am
Quoting Steve Gill
Interesting stuff and I appreciate you posting this - I find its opposite views like this that help us learn, assuming we're all playing by VSA rules. I have no problem being proven wrong, but I want and hope to learn what I was reading incorrectly on the charts.

What was your target? Are you short term trading aka did you jump out at the SOW on the 15 minute or are you holding for post NFP?
My target was 1:1 at 6296 as I wanted to get in and out and saw the opportunity to do so on GU with this move down on what I saw as very little interest (unlike EU that is just kind of sitting there ranging)...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,914
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:55am Mar 4, 2011 6:55am
Quoting pres78
My target was 1:1 at 6296 as I wanted to get in and out and saw the opportunity to do so on GU with this move down on what I saw as very little interest (unlike EU that is just kind of sitting there ranging)...
Excellent, so you collected your pips and are out of the market now? Superb, because I thought when I saw price move back down that you would be stopped out at B/E.

Positive pips are better than no pips every day, even though the trade you took was too risky for me. Well done
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,915
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:58am Mar 4, 2011 6:58am
GU-H4
2 X ND in upper trendline, safe trading.
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  • #14,916
  • Mar 4, 2011 7:00am Mar 4, 2011 7:00am
Quoting Steve Gill
I'm ignoring asia volume - but the low volume I'm talking about is London.

Although NFP is in a few hours I'm a believer that SM positions themselves pre NFP to take advantage of the news. We've got clear supply present above the current price (well the current price as of the time we posted these charts - its moved up now but hit supply again). So if SM plans to push price up during NFP they're either going to have to absorb the supply or sell into it themselves.

I stand by my analysis for now, but I'm glad I play by Gavin's rules to place sell...
Just offering my humble opinion here -

Found your posting to be very informative and learned from it, even took some notes in my trading book. Just a word of caution here, your entry for the short may be improved if you wait for smart money to gyrate the prices about 100 pips around NFP. Take this as a dusty old man's opinion, but if history is any good, prices will move violently and usually end up where they were prior to the NFP shenanigans. Perhaps putting a sell limit order 50-80 pips above 1,6300 will improve your risk exposure.

P.S. I may be completely wrong.

Regards,

Moe.
  • #14,917
  • Mar 4, 2011 7:03am Mar 4, 2011 7:03am
Quoting pres78
My target was 1:1 at 6296 as I wanted to get in and out and saw the opportunity to do so on GU with this move down on what I saw as very little interest (unlike EU that is just kind of sitting there ranging)...
That's pretty much the exact type of set up I take. Except there wasn't enough volume for me on the hourly to get interested in it. Good trade!
  • #14,918
  • Mar 4, 2011 7:04am Mar 4, 2011 7:04am
Quoting Steve Gill
Excellent, so you collected your pips and are out of the market now? Superb, because I thought when I saw price move back down that you would be stopped out at B/E.

Positive pips are better than no pips every day, even though the trade you took was too risky for me. Well done
Yes now flat... it was risky for me simply as a product of being NFP day... other than that the set-up is one I would have taken any other day as everything I look for was there including a nice NS printing right above my price action line... normally I would have taken 2 lots and the second one right now would be floating just above BE.

The other concern for me is that the SL was 30 pips as I like the set-ups that give tighter SL's than that.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,919
  • Mar 4, 2011 7:08am Mar 4, 2011 7:08am
Quoting pres78
Yes now flat... it was risky for me simply as a product of being NFP day... other than that the set-up is one I would have taken any other day as everything I look for was there including a nice NS printing right above my price action line... normally I would have taken 2 lots and the second one right now would be floating just above BE.

The other concern for me is that the SL was 30 pips as I like the set-ups that give tighter SL's than that.
30pips shouldn't matter too much, a pair like GU or EU will easily hit that if the set up is valid. I've taken such a set up with 50 to 60pip SL/Target before now. Anything above that though and i do get wary.
  • #14,920
  • Mar 4, 2011 7:15am Mar 4, 2011 7:15am
Quoting KinsaleForex
30pips shouldn't matter too much, a pair like GU or EU will easily hit that if the set up is valid. I've taken such a set up with 50 to 60pip SL/Target before now. Anything above that though and i do get wary.
Very true, but I do love those tests that print down close to a daily low that get in you in with 10-20 pips and leaves the entire days ADR at your mercy for lot 2 after the 1:1 is quickly in the bag ...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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