Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 154 | Forex Factory

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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #3,061
  • Feb 19, 2011 7:18am Feb 19, 2011 7:18am
Quoting bug
Thank you for your time and effort, medici. I will be reading with interest.

PS. I'm sorry that my vouch for you was pulled. CindyXXXX got a little carried away with vouching for strangers and got all of his vouches pulled, which means that I lost the 4th voucher thus voiding all of my Vs. I've have come to the understanding that people here don't care much about those Vs but I thought I'd just let you know.
Hi bug, good to hear from you! How are things going these days?
  • #3,062
  • Feb 19, 2011 7:41am Feb 19, 2011 7:41am
Quoting medici
Hi bug, good to hear from you! How are things going these days?
They could be better, but I'm not complaining. I've had some real success when it comes to choosing the right tools, the chart setups, determining when to enter and figuring out a comfortable stop loss placement technique. Browsing through your, Islander's, Vantage's, Paulus' and my own charts has been very useful in that regard.

However, I still have to work on my mental skills. Making money in forex is easy, it's the consistency that's the tough part. I've seen some real improvements in my behaviour but there's still more work to be done. Recently I've started reading more books and this has definitely helped me - it provides entertainment, education but it also keeps me away from the PC so that I can't overtrade once I've reached my limit for the day. I used to be a real book-worm and it feels good to be back.

Take care,
bug
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #3,063
  • Feb 19, 2011 7:59am Feb 19, 2011 7:59am
By the way, the strategies that I have constructed (yes, at the moment, there are several of them and I am working to eliminate most and keep just one) are all based on following.

Quoting medici
Follow, don't anticipate.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #3,064
  • Feb 19, 2011 8:08am Feb 19, 2011 8:08am
Quoting bug
By the way, the strategies that I have constructed (yes, at the moment, there are several of them and I am working to eliminate most and keep just one) are all based on following.
Good to hear that you too have found the right track
  • #3,065
  • Feb 19, 2011 8:38am Feb 19, 2011 8:38am
Quoting medici
You're still trying to figure out and explain. Remember the missile analogy.

Equip your charts with a missile tracking system, consider current price as a noisy measurement rather than the "true price". Measure direction and noise. When noise is low, and when direction coincides with current price measurements (i.e. short-term momentum) - shoot!
I would rather avoid indicators, if thats what you mean by missile tracking systems?
  • #3,066
  • Edited 8:59am Feb 19, 2011 8:48am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting Scotty2Cues
I would rather avoid indicators, if thats what you mean by missile tracking systems?
That's not what I meant.

Some people use sophisticated actual missile tracking techniques: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=68181

Others use simple MAs: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=279970

And still others use no indicators at all: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=80290

Following rather than anticipating is the point, not how you do it.
  • #3,067
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:05am Feb 19, 2011 9:05am
Quoting Scotty2Cues
I would rather avoid indicators, if thats what you mean by missile tracking systems?
If you know how they work and how to use them why not have them on your chart? It seems to me that most people who trade don't know how to use them properly, they get frustrated with their lack of success with indicators and then they blame the indicators, never realizing that it's not about the tools, but how one chooses to apply the tools. Of course, jumping from one indicator to another doesn't make it any easier because the trader will never acquire the experience necessary to learn the way the tool should/could be used thus leading to frustration and bitter feelings toward indicators and those who use them, the latter of which I find very distasteful (I'm not saying you are bitter, but there are plenty of members here at FF who seem to display just such a tone in their posts). Even the simplest indicators can assist a trader provided the trader knows what he is doing and is already familiar with the way the market and indicators work. Without experience and knowledge, any technique is a potential account drainer. Insulin, for example, is a great medicine but an overdose can kill you. An infection can do a lot of damage as well. Administered correctly, by a knowledgeable person with experience and you have yourself a life-saver.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #3,068
  • Feb 23, 2011 5:10am Feb 23, 2011 5:10am
Quoting medici
To find out why and how price moves the way it does, the shortest route is to spend a few years watching charts, read up on the fx market micro-structure literature, have a few mates at dealing desks in the City, and to collate your findings into a coherent framework.

At least that's how I figured a couple of things out. And if you continue down that line you may want to trade on that information, and your mates may be willing to provide it - at a price.

In absence of insider order flow information one may then, as you seem to be hoping to do,...
This is excellent advice and very well explained. It is so true, I believe you cannot separate rule based methods and discretionary methods. If you cannot create rules from what started as discretion, then how can one create consistency with the method. Let go of anticipation by trading objectively from a set of rules. Great thread (long time lurker).
  • #3,069
  • Feb 23, 2011 5:20am Feb 23, 2011 5:20am
Quoting Porkpie
This is excellent advice and very well explained. It is so true, I believe you cannot separate rule based methods and discretionary methods. If you cannot create rules from what started as discretion, then how can one create consistency with the method. Let go of anticipation by trading objectively from a set of rules. Great thread (long time lurker).
Thank you for kind words! And you are making some excellent points yourself, on which I had planned to post on a new thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=281516
  • #3,070
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:28pm Mar 2, 2011 8:28pm
Quoting medici
Following rather than anticipating is the point, not how you do it.
  • #3,071
  • Mar 3, 2011 10:41am Mar 3, 2011 10:41am
Hello Medici and Islander,

first of all, thank you for this inspiring thread!

Since you are trading the European open for quite some time now, I would like to know what performance figures you achieve by doing this. For example, I would be interested in the average % profit per day and per year as well in the maximum % of drawdown. The number of profitable trades interests me, too.

I have bought a commercial strategy with open code (100% mechanical) which trades GBP/USD at the London open. Although it is very simple, it is profitable for about two years. It simply looks at the trend which has developed before the open and then places a market order in that direction at the opening time. This is in my opinion a scientific proof that trading the European open has merit and provides a statistical edge. However, the strategy will not make you a millionaire tomorrow. It averages about +1.7% profit per month, with the maximum drawdown being about -3.5%. The hit rate averages about 65% long and short. If your risk tolerance is higher you could use more leverage, e.g. three times more: +5.2% per month while risking a dd of -10.5%. (I have no commercial interest in selling this system and want to avoid to be banned so I do not reveal its name here.)

I guess that you, Medici and Islander, are a lot better than that.
Are you willing to share some insights into your performance figures?

Regards,
TraderJF
  • #3,072
  • Mar 4, 2011 3:44am Mar 4, 2011 3:44am
Quoting TraderJF
Hello Medici and Islander,

first of all, thank you for this inspiring thread!

Since you are trading the European open for quite some time now, I would like to know what performance figures you achieve by doing this. For example, I would be interested in the average % profit per day and per year as well in the maximum % of drawdown. The number of profitable trades interests me, too.

I have bought a commercial strategy with open code (100% mechanical) which trades GBP/USD at the London open. Although it is very simple, it is profitable for...
Hello, and thanks for your interest.

I take your question to be about the methods described rather than about declaring taxable income as somebody required on another thread.

On demo or spread-betting accounts I have produced some jaw-dropping figures, but if we are talking trading of some size then I have achieved an average of more than 5% a day over very long stretches of time, and that is risking no more than 2% per trade. Those numbers are based on trading the morning only, which has been my preference, and usually stopping after reaching above 5%.

There have been periods of significantly better returns, such as back in 2008, and draw-downs also happen, but they are due to being unfit to trade without being fully aware of it rather than method. Thus the focus on self-awareness, meditation, and so on.

Also, interaction on forums such as this one has caused a disconnect between perception and trading - resulting in less than optimal performance at times.

Then there are periods when R&D means reduced focus on full-on trading. And MM is under constant evaluation - I like to bet bigger on the better setups.
  • #3,073
  • Mar 4, 2011 4:01am Mar 4, 2011 4:01am
Look forward to reading in full.. looks to be a CRACK thred..
  • #3,074
  • Mar 4, 2011 5:04am Mar 4, 2011 5:04am
Quoting medici
I take your question to be about the methods described rather than about declaring taxable income as somebody required on another thread.
No, I am not the taxman

Quoting medici
... I have achieved an average of more than 5% a day over very long stretches of time, and that is risking no more than 2% per trade. ...
Congratulations, that is outstanding!
I had hoped to hear something like this :-)


Quoting medici
There have been periods of significantly better returns, such as back in 2008,
Oh yeah

Quoting medici
and draw-downs also happen, but they are due to being unfit to trade without being fully aware of it rather than method. Thus the focus on self-awareness, meditation, and so on.
I guess it is impossible to completely avoid losing trades.
May I ask what has been your worst drawdown?

Quoting medici
Also, interaction on forums such as this one has caused a disconnect between perception and trading - resulting in less than optimal performance at times.
I hope the interaction on the forums will pay off for you in the future so you get your money back at least twice


I am trading a completely different scalping strategy and I have found that it performed extremely well in 2009 which gave me a nice head start when I became a full time trader. In the beginning It averaged about +3% per day with a risk of 5% per trade. Currently the strategy averages only about +0.25% per day. My largest drawdown was -13% which forced me to improve the strategy. Within the last 12 months I had a maximum drawdown of -4%. I think I have to live with that. It is the cost of doing business.

Now I am searching for some new strategy. Perhaps I can create some aggressive mechanical thingy around the London open. Dreaming of +5% per day ...
  • #3,075
  • Mar 4, 2011 7:10am Mar 4, 2011 7:10am
Quoting Islander
Here I'm watching both 1m & 5m cii, easily changing between them.

The main question around mid FH was whether to trade Eu or Gu - a good question for further research......I traded both

Edit: blue removed, new chart saved - that's fixed it!
#3016

Hi Islander

May I take the liberty of asking you where these nice time clock's are coming from which could be seen at the top of the frame (Sydney, NY, London, Madrid,...)?

Bonne fin de semaine!
FXcube
  • #3,076
  • Mar 4, 2011 7:28am Mar 4, 2011 7:28am
Do you want to read some scientifique articles?
May be take also a look here?

Bibliography of Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets
Dagfinn Rime†

This file provides a bibliography of the literature on the Microstructure of
Foreign Exchange Markets. It includes clickable url- or doi-links1 to most of
the published papers, and even to some of the working papers. I will add more
annotations over time. The BibTEX database used for this file is available from this homepage.
The references are organized in three sections: 1) Journal papers; 2) Working
papers; and 3) Books, book-chapters, PhD dissertations, etc. New in this version is an attempt to classify journal articles into four subsections.

http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/lyo...bliography.pdf
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Microstructure.jpg Size: 316 KB
  • #3,077
  • Mar 4, 2011 8:49am Mar 4, 2011 8:49am
Hello Forexcube,

that looks really like a nice bibliography.
I am looking forward to what those lots of articles might have to reveal
Thank you very much!

Do you have any readings to recommend? Especially to a scalper hunting for a few pips within seconds and minutes?

Regards,
TraderJF
  • #3,078
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:20am Mar 4, 2011 9:20am
Quoting Forexcube
#3016

Hi Islander

May I take the liberty of asking you where these nice time clock's are coming from which could be seen at the top of the frame (Sydney, NY, London, Madrid,...)?

Bonne fin de semaine!
FXcube
I think you mean this one - if not, just ask again as I've tried several....ah I cant get it attached, so you'll need to Google it, its called TimeLeft3

Gracias y igualmente http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

PS thanks for the vouch too.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,079
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:56am Mar 7, 2011 5:56am
Hi Medici and Islander,

Thanks for your support and contribution in my ridiculous thread next door. Now I am here, and hopefully can learn something from you guys...

I know a little about hunting wolves, and I think It's about time I also learn how to hunt Lions and Tigers from you both in this thread and start to hunt with a real gentlement like you guys...

Again, Thanks for the Vouch Medici. Will try to read your stuff here whenever I have the time...

Good luck and Thanks for sharing this Journal!


NG
  • #3,080
  • Edited 5:57pm Mar 7, 2011 3:40pm | Edited 5:57pm
Quoting NiceGuy
Hi Medici and Islander,

Thanks for your support and contribution in my ridiculous thread next door. Now I am here, and hopefully can learn something from you guys...

I know a little about hunting wolves, and I think It's about time I also learn how to hunt Lions and Tigers from you both in this thread and start to hunt with a real gentlement like you guys...

Again, Thanks for the Vouch Medici. Will try to read your stuff here whenever I have the time...

Good luck and Thanks for sharing this Journal!


NG
Hello NG, and welcome to our thread Unfortunately, I believe it's in a sedentary state from which it is unlikely to recover.

At present you are most likely to find posts by myself or Islander on eyevoltage's of forexcube's threads.

And please accept my respect and compliments for your efforts to help the beginner and developing traders on your ridiculous thread



Warmest wishes,

medici
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