GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

Looking at the daily candles this weekend, it appears the Euro is weak across board (EURUSD, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF).
?can someone confirm these... I'll be watching these closely next week
EU - beob/ engulfing previous cndlebody?
EURNZD- evening star?

Have a good weekend y'all.

Afternoon All,

As per previous analysis price trap support highlighted held. We performed a small fakeout before heading back north to retest the 6280 zone. More importantly the monthly close for February was a bullish close and now increases the odds on us targeting the 1.68/ monthly 200ma as per my daily and monthly charts.

I have 6121 area as a retrace target for price before we continue to make new highs. I can’t see the monthly bar taking off from here especially with NFPs on friday....we are more likely to see a pull back to 6120 zone pre NFP's. 6120 zone also ties in with the support zone of the price trap visible on my daily chart. We also have a large line of single prints between 6150 and 6185 which are unlikely to be left unfilled prior to us making a higher April close.... given the month has just started doesn’t mean we have to fill them before heading higher but given NFP's coming up we are more than likely going to target that area if the daily price trap resistance at 6180 holds.

I’m expecting it to be choppy before friday so will be looking to hold a short from 1.63 to 6120 area given the stop isn’t taken out 50 or so pips away. Last 4hr has closed as a pinbar so will be interesting to see if the next 4hr has a lower close than the previous high. should we close higher I may cancel this short and wait for a clearer setup.

Stocky

Hi Stocky - thanks for that info. Today I've been busy plundering long pips off yesterdays volume POC level at 6253 and was waiting to see if we can close above the 6300 level.

With this last rejection, we have a nice H&S on the 15m, so let's see if the 6253 level finally breaks....TWT

Eitherway, we've got plenty of nice S&R levels for range trading into NFP

Hi Islander,

Been a while, hope all is well.

Yep there is loads of strong S&R to work on around here. Yesterdays POC has provided some great scalps which is probably the way to go until we see a decisive break higher or lower. Looking at the MP setup between yesterdays profile and todays profile I see price falling fast once we break below 6254 right the way down to them single prints.

I will be holding a short at 1.63 till friday unless it gets taken out prior to NFP's in which case I will be sclaping S&R levels.

tradewell, see u soon

Stocky

hi stocky
i have a buy order at 6130, I also feel price should spike into that level before taking off to 1.64+. I agree entirely with your analysis. But I believe we can have a big pullback from 6450, an important weekly swing point, before 7000+. So I see price falling to 6130, up to 6450/70, then falling to 6000, and only then, after coiling up, will we see 7000. I will trade my plan.

cheers

Hi Tomaz,

I agree it is more than possible for us to spike higher to 6450 area before heading lower and if we get a candle holding outdside the daily /4hr price trap resistance I have pointed out we may go much higher with momentum.

Good luck with your trade plan.

Stocky

Hi All,

Well, been on the road a little, and so not really keeping up to speed with much. That said, if current events in Northern Africa continue, I may not be able to reach any speed at all as the price of a barrel of black gold may prohibit any intention I have of staying on the road at all. Staying with gold, but thinking of the shiny stuff, well, it would appear that the 1500 mark is back on, and if the blip in the indices transpires to be more than just that, well, tin hats on and into the bunker for a lot, I would think.

Bunkers: Trichet seems to be in his, and cut off from all outside contact. Apparently, the Euro is a wonderful currency and that;' There is no crisis of the euro as a currency. The currency has delivered price stability over the last 12 years with average inflation, as you know, of one point nine seven percent. The credibility of the currency, namely that it will continue over the next ten years to keep its value and to deliver price stability in line with the definition of less than but close to two per cent, is remarkable. This is the solid anchoring of inflation expectations that I have already mentioned. We have a solid central bank and a solid Governing Council. We consider ourselves to be an anchor of confidence in the euro area.’

I'm sure I heard the troops associated with Fine Gael laughing from outside Triky Trichet's bunker (Fina Gael have just collected the most seats in the Irish General Election count today), whilst those in Greece were shaking their heads in disbelief. Still, you've got to give it to Tricky, he has belief, and that is all one sometimes needs... would love to read his thoughts when he shuts his eyes at night and sighs with relief at having got through another day. Mind you, with Fina Gael having already stated that they would renegotiate the forced bailout upon Eire, the ire felt by the Greeks may grow as they want for less-stringent payback terms, and surely cause some insomnia for Tricky as he wonders if he will make it through to the next morning, or if his bunker door will be blown wide open one night.

Not sure anyone is still bothered to follow this, but the ECB is now lending to Eire at levels not seen since the forced bailout. I've read that a figure of 1.2B Euro was withdrawn by corporation and normal retailer. This shortfall in capital within the Irish banking sector has had to be made up by the ECB. They reputedly pumped in 1.9B Euro to cover the deficit. So what we have is a massive debt to the IMF that does seem to be being addressed effectively, a population trying to get their money out, and an ECB being forced to pump more in than they originally intended. This will surely cause problems.

The luck of the Irish: Pff, it's going to take more than that to pull through, for both the Irish, and Brussels.

Nice close yesterday. Quick retest of 1.63?

nice thread.. and good insight.

cheers guys!

Thanks, that was interesting.....as IMO was this in Bloomberg...
Merkel Digs In on Bailout Terms as Discord Mars European Debt Crisis Talks


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...sis-talks.html

Yes, there has been many comments during the run-up to the March summits, and with what you have just referenced, the state of Portugal, and the wider PIIG nations' bond prices.

It ain't gonna be pretty, that's for sure...

[quote=50d;4431683]Looking at the daily candles this weekend, it appears the Euro is weak across board


Missed this one completely...

Stocky... great analysis as usual. I wish I can see just half of what you see when looking at the charts. Still watching those single prints at 6150 area.
How do I develop your kind of chart analysis skills?

i have a buy order for GU at 6200 looking for a spike down before the next leg up to 6450
stop 6050

Hi 50d!

Trust you're trading well.

I replied to your post on Saturday, but went to delete a paragraph later, and ended up pressing the 'delete post' option when I'd finished, as I was in an absent-minded haze of expectation that I'd be celebratinga 'cup win' at the end of the day (anyone notice the bit about Arsenal winning the cup - and Van Persie not getting injured in my last post, which proves you should all take my analysis with a pinch of salt).

In essence I replied to your post that, the Euro didn't give much evidence of being 'weak across the board' from last weeks' weekly candle on the pairs you'd mentioned, and it was looking increasingly likely we'd see a test of 1.3965 on the euro/usd (monthly open of November - don't have the monthly pivot indicator so can't say if that's R1or whatever), before any potential drop, purely because it looked like we were going to close the month on Monday at close to the monthly high, which we did (sorry, I'm no technical analyst so can't phrase this in any technical lingo). Gold was approaching a peak, so that's why the eur/aud fell last week as the aud was rising with gold, and the nzd was retracing from the big fall last week, so the latter end of the week saw a drop in the eur/nzd.

Today' NFP as we all know, so a lot of volatility to be expected, BUT, there 'appears' to have been a pick up in dollar strength on Wednesday night, (I picked up the Swissy at 0.9218 and 0.9229 on separate accounts and SL at b/e +5 on both). If this continues then we 'may' see further USD strength later in the day, post NFP. The question, however, is with investors still digesting the likely interest rate hikes in April, unless the Euro summit folks come out and say something really negative about the bailout programme, how much real impact will any dollar strength have on the euro today (really working hard on decoupling the pairs now and trying to get away from this 'correlation' train of thought - yesterday we saw both the Euro and Swissy rise together, which was a real distraction).

Already in a 'medium-term' short on the Euro since yesterday at 1.3932 - with the intention of riding this to 1.3527, with a 200 pip SL set. Alert set at 1.404 to see if we head for there first before any fall on the Euro, and also at 1.3890 where I'll move my SL to break even on this sell order if we get there (may close this at break even if we simply spike down there this morning, and only have the swissy orders open, being NFP day).

Have a good weekend all! Off to the day job now (& sorry for the long post, but I don't post as frequently anymore as I'm reorganising the department, so hopefully this makes up for these 'life stories' I now occassionaly post ).

i



Pending sell order set on the Euro at
[quote=50d;4446608]

...now this is an interesting chart:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eve...-balance-sheet

What am I looking out for this month? Two things; the Euro summits and GB budget. Those will be the definers for the next quarter. And then it remains to be seen if the FED will pull the plug on QE, as mentioned over at Zero Hedge, and what the consequences of such an action will be.

As I said the other day, start polishing those tin hats!!

Hope all are in green pips for the weekend.

Sorry for the lack of posting on my part recently.

My advice: easy to get caught in recency bias. We still remain in range on the USDX (75.5 - 81.5), and without a serious break below 75.5 this could just be the wave 2 down in a huge dollar up impulse.

http://www.forexhit.com/images/basic...ve-pattern.gif

Yesterday was so pleasant, that le rosbif decided to conduct the first cut of the lawn. Oh how wonderful it is to be oblivious to the world and attempt to entice Spring to visit my little piece of the Earth. Indeed, so fine was the day, my wife decided that work could be postponed for 24 hours, and decided to go riding. All in all, a very enjoyable day.

In other little parts of the Earth, it is the proverbial, and not Spring, that seems to be visiting. Although proclaimed to be strong and united, it would appear that the shining horse of the ECB has transformed itself into the pale horse of Death, as Moody’s downgrading of Greek debt appears to have enticed the visit of something quite apart from a sense of joyful rebirth.

According to the Greek finance ministry: ‘Ultimately, Moody’s downgrading of Greece’s debts reveals more about the misaligned incentives and the lack of accountability of credit rating agencies than the genuine state or prospects of the Greek economy.’

Well, I am not without criticism of credit rating agencies, that’s for sure, but damn can they wreak havoc when they arrive at the doorstep and send investors running for cover as the horses of fiscal apocalypse loom large… so much so that Portuguese debt hit an all-time high of 7.65% as the white horse of Conquest was espied upon the horizon.

Moody’s lead analyst on Greece, Sarah Carlson, warns the world that the existing debt for Greece may need to be restructured in two years’ time. No kidding Sarah, and as you state: ‘The sheer magnitude of the task becomes ever more apparent.’ Well, with endemic tax evasion, and debt to reach 158 percent of GDP come 2013, I am not surprised to hear this, as I have always doubted that Greece will meet the proclaimed repayment schedule.

Moody’s finish their assessment by stating that: ‘The fiscal consolidation measures and structural reforms that are needed to stabilize the country’s debt metrics remain very ambitious and are subject to significant implementation risks.’ In language that I understand, my interpretation is; Greece has no chance and will be put out to pasture in the debtor’s field.

I wager that Sarko was quaking in his boots as he saw the potential for the red horse of War to cut a swath of contention along the Franco-Germanic fault line, whilst the black horse of Famine calculated the furlongs to go as George Osborne secured Ben Broadbent as a replacement for Andrew Sentence… Mr. Broadbent being a dove, and former Goldman Sachs’ employee, an’ all. Oh dear.

According to the FT; ‘Mr Broadbent is best known for the view that Britain is well-placed to withstand the fiscal tightening without a damaging effect on the economy. He expects the depreciation of sterling to allow the economy to recover as the public finances improve’. Hmm, it’s that word, depreciation, within a depreciating world economy, that makes me question Mr. Broadbent’s optimism within a state of stagflation. Still, better to get rid of those that do not agree with the saddle that you place before them, eh George?

As for charts, I am having a little IT issue with my platform, but note Sinner’s observation, and one that concurs with a few other traders of notable experience here at FF. I note that EU ht the FE extension I have discussed somewhat at the 1.4 mark, and so expect a sustained drop from here. In addition this, with the changes to members of both the ECB and the BoE to occur in the next few quarters, perhaps the Dollar is where most will ride to. And what about gold? It must hit my expected $1500 sometime soon.

Well, technical issues appear to be surmounted this evening, so thought I would chuck on the charts I could not earlier in the day.

still long from 6100 waiting for 6470 to the reverse short, cable should get there today/tomorrow with BOE announcement