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vsa with Malcolm

  • #14,861
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:11pm Mar 3, 2011 8:11pm
Hi Beljevina,

Thank you very much for your response. Do you mean put a buy/sell stop order prior to the CB news, and let the market come to you? I just want to make sure whether limit orders or stop orders are feasible.

cheers,
polomine

Quoting Beljevina
I got in way too late, but have taken a lesson from it and been reminded: CB talk of a bank rate rise, or the actual event is good for a few hundred pips, and buy limits are employable. It is one of the few news events I (try) to trade.
  • #14,862
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:38pm Mar 3, 2011 8:38pm
Quoting Beljevina
I would love to explore this ... assume I might be lazy (not far from the truth, lol!) is there an MT4 indi that will plot these for me? (I suppose I could bastardize an existing MT4 indi with GMT offset settings, to the right London & Tokyo time ... and heck, what are they in NY time? 11:30am NY for London? Not sure what Tokyo would be?!!)
hello... not very sure what you are looking for, maybe this will be of use: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=239164
  • #14,863
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:47pm Mar 3, 2011 8:47pm
Quoting rbumbalough
Luckily this is in a demo account, but in interest of accountability I can't say why I sold EU in the teeth of Ultra-Bullishness. I wasn't thinking about any sort of signals or trigger setups and was only gambling as if the biggest and most liquid market in the world and perhaps existence was a slot machine. This sort of behavior almost always results in losing money or blowing up yet another demo account. It may be correctable by adopting a trading plan rule for my speculation transaction open check list to always double check if I am actually...
Hi rbumbalough,

Your Demo trade was:

Currency: EUR/USD
Position: Short
Sell: 1.3925
T/P: 1.3917
S/L: None
Size: 5.00
Result: -$1,700 Loss

It is good you mentioned about your losing trade here.

It is NOT just that you opened the Short without your proper trade setup, this you have recognised and you have accepted.

This trade has further concerns that you will want to realise.

Further Concerns are:

- This is Demo account. You TREAT it as a Demo account, and NOT a Live account.
You should TREAT it as a Live account, then you know how it feels, how badly YOU would HURT if you did take this trade.
You might want to consider a Micro account over a Demo account, as Micro is Real but the pip to real dollar is small like 1pip = 10cents.

- Your TP is only for +8pips. Look very very very small reward for the risk.

- Your SL is NONE. Bad Bad Bad!!
Worse is when you compare your reward of +8pips versus your risk that was "Unlimited Risk" (Your Total Account Balance) when SL is none.
This is almost like saying you Risk:Reward ratio is like "Negative Infinity".
"Positive Infinity" would be like once SL is moved to BE and beyond.
The good traders who don't put SL orders are because they are extremely fast with their fingers and minds, and they will execute the SL immediately without putting SL orders on their platform.
You need to put a SL, and slowly learn where to put SL appropriately if it gets hit too often.
Do you prefer "Negative Infinity" or "Positive Infinity" ??

- Just a note is ensure the account balance in a Demo should reflect very similar to what you would deposit if you have a Real account.
Most platforms don't allow you to set your own Demo's initial balance to be similar to your Real's initial balance.

- Regarding to the Demo balance, look at the size you took for this trade.
5.0 lots !!!
Too huge a size. Go minimal to 0.1 or 1.0 as a start.
Wait for good further confirmation, then add to it.
Remember the common trading rule of risking around 1-3% on your trading balance, KEEP this Rule in mind.
And find a suitable percentage(it may be a higher percentage) that ensure you can still survive first.
Another note is with small balance, it is difficult to have a small 1-3%, it might be a bit more than 1-3% to risk for small balance to be practical, of course that is more risk once you increase the risk percentage.


Hope this helps even when it is "just because it is a DEMO".
  • #14,864
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:51pm Mar 3, 2011 8:51pm
when is daily open ?

Is it low volume , hi we are asian traders and like top use low volume conditions to manipulate the market

Or is it hi we are the serious high volume , large activity London traders ?

I set my bars london to london , works well for me. Low volume asia mean NOTHING to me.

as for days open with in the chart .. this is what I wanted to talk to you about off line ... but you shot me down. I have alot of this shit figures out to a science.

thinks it was by accident we had r at 1.3966 ? and that the wick on the daily candle was 40 pip ?....way to easy when you figure it all out

charts are london to london

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu221.png Size: 213 KB






Quoting Magix
Not a dumb question at all...One I failed to ask, one I failed to observe, now that I do, am appreciative of finding out this little nugget of info.

Daily roll over is true beginning and end of the daily candles.

Mark your chart at NY close, this is the beginning of a new day.

You can watch how well this area will act as support and resistance, much the same way as when we approach this level on the Weekly opens or the Monthly opens.

As most brokers use their own times for daily candles, these can be a lot deceiving, much the same as a lot of...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,865
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:56pm Mar 3, 2011 8:56pm
Quoting malcolmb14
when is daily open ?

Is it low volume , hi we are asian traders and like top use low volume conditions to manipulate the market

Or is it hi we are the serious high volume , large activity London traders ?

I set my bars london to london , works well for me. Low volume asia mean NOTHING to me.

as for days open with in the chart .. this is what I wanted to talk to you about off line ... but you shot me down. I have alot of this shit figures out to a science.

thinks it was by accident we had r at 1.3966 ? and that the wick on the daily candle...
Shhh, dammit your giving away all of the secrets again. Just keep posting using macd, non of this other "stuff."
  • #14,866
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:58pm Mar 3, 2011 8:58pm
you are right .. daily roll is awesome in asia and brokers always stop hunt those levels

remove price also ... wtf

if something works then why do traders have a million different templates ?

Quoting Sonofsin5
Shhh, dammit your giving away all of the secrets again. Just keep posting using macd, non of this other "stuff."
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,867
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:05pm Mar 3, 2011 9:05pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Help me ... I sold this stochastic cross down and now I lost money ... or was it a break even trade .. what happened .. how did I lose all my account ?

Attachment

OK help you.

Use "Stoch" when price Ranging.
Use "MACD" when price Trending.

Don't knock the above rules, it does work!

You just have to figure out when it is Trending or Ranging. This is the difficult part.
  • #14,868
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:14pm Mar 3, 2011 9:14pm
as i said, more than one way to skin a cat. i meant no harm, no offense and no disrespect... market taught me to listen and learn from EVERYONE.
i take into account everything that works for me, and this is what i preach


Quoting Magix
I wasn't trying to argue with you either my man...

I do analyze things on all levels and while most are wondering what just happened, guys like me are cashing out.

I ain't saying what is going to happen, but look at the events leading up to today....
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #14,869
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:40pm Mar 3, 2011 9:40pm
Quoting Scrat
sorry for barging in like this - the other important levels of the day are tokyo and london close, don't underestimate them!
i have one exercise for you - start marking london close levels on your chart and compare them to ny close; see which one seems more relevant for price action

Agreed on the Close of various sessions, and not just one specific session.

Also important to consider are the Lows and Highs of those sessions to be S/R.

Even though all sessions have their relevance in determining S/R, each currency pair reacts differently to the various session.

And lets said one week the London session may seem relevant to this currency pair, then you may notice next week it could be the US session that seem more relevant.

Determining which session is setting the benchmark(S/R) and which session will make the real move for the day or week is ongoing issue, it is not fixed to say that a specific session of Asian or London or US session that is setting the benchmark (S/R) for this pair.
This ongoing issue is harder to figure out.
  • #14,870
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:02pm Mar 3, 2011 11:02pm
I am posting two charts of EUR/CAD;

In the first chart I have used MML on daily TF and I have put a red vertical line on daily candles for the week before last week. The pair was bought on consistent basis from 1.33xx level (If you use H4 TF, 1.3305 coincides with +2/8MML: Strong pivot from which I have seen massive accumulation happens in many cases);

The following week we had a nice shakeout to 1.333 area and the pair went straight up for 370 pips after that. Then we had some bad news (which I don't recall what was it exactly...NEWS if to manipulate you after all...Isn't it?) and the pair went side ways for the rest of last week.

Question: Do you think SM who spent an entire week accumulating the pair is happy with 370 pips? (Note that they are not buying at a certain price, but in a certain price range, hence their maximum profit should have been less than 350 pips...)

Now whenever I am in a situation like this, I look at EMA compression and HULL on higher TFs; The second chart shows my EMA's and HULL (EMA6 is yellow and EMA144 is red, since I find them to pin point the shift in trend better).

We have massive compression on daily TF and Hull has turned green. I went back all the way to October 2009 on daily TF and I have never seen such a huge compression. I think we will be easily taking out 1.4 by the end of March and if you have missed the move on EU, you can join the ride in this one...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eur-cad1-h4.jpg Size: 203 KB
  • #14,871
  • Mar 4, 2011 1:03am Mar 4, 2011 1:03am
Quoting KinsaleForex
............As for closing at 1.3915, all my trades work on a 1:1 stop/profit ratio. I'm looking into getting more out of my trades as a lot of the profitable ones hit my 1:1 and continue on further..............
Careful you dont get too greedy and start losing more than you gain. I too am looking for ways to let trades run but, I'm finding it difficult to find reliability. What is your win:loss ratio? If it's quite good, you can up your risk a bit in order to make more from the trade.

You seem to enter a trade on most days so even if you were only risking 3% with a 3:1 W:L you'd still make 2% per day(1 trade per day). Thats not bad at all.
  • #14,872
  • Mar 4, 2011 1:05am Mar 4, 2011 1:05am
Another snoring NFP day thus far 1hr before LO...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,873
  • Mar 4, 2011 2:38am Mar 4, 2011 2:38am
Quoting Sonofsin5
I'm always reminded of George Orwell's famous doublespeak in 1984.

" Winston sank his arms to his sides and slowly refilled his lungs with air. His mind slid away into the labyrinthine world of doublethink. To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them…"
  • #14,874
  • Mar 4, 2011 3:10am Mar 4, 2011 3:10am
Quoting malcolmb14
High volume up bars are not always selling .... they can be mark up bars when they take out major levels of resistance , which is what eu did today. You need volume to do that break out . Thing to watch for here is LOW volume testing of 1.3920 area
I think I worded it badly. I'm not suggesting this mark up wasn't bullish (absorption volume), only that there was a little supply in it as well- not massive, but some nonetheless - the next bar (5M, 15M, 30M, 1H etc) was clearly down. If the bar was 100% buying the next bar couldn't have been down.

My point was that this supply needs drying up before continuing up, something that I believe the US session yesterday has pretty much done, although I still believe a shakeout during NFP is more likely than a push up. Happy to be wrong, but personally I wouldn't be holding a trade over NFP unless it's SL is already at B/E or above.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,875
  • Mar 4, 2011 3:17am Mar 4, 2011 3:17am
Quoting malcolmb14
Steve

I got my dad to get my hotrod out the garage and get it race ready for our day on the track

Attachment
Superb bud. I think you'll have the edge on the straights but I have a feeling I must just win it in the corners
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,876
  • Mar 4, 2011 3:29am Mar 4, 2011 3:29am
Well Price action is crap today!!

BTW mal, Your 12 hour charts, they look different to mine. Our 2 hours are the same, but i keep getting messed up gaps in the 12 hr?

Got it set to dynamic session 0:00-24:00. How the hell do you get it to stop doing the gaps???
  • #14,877
  • Mar 4, 2011 3:30am Mar 4, 2011 3:30am
Hi guys,
anyone looking at GBPUSD?
massive move.. how do we interpret this with VSA?
thanks in advance for comments..
  • #14,878
  • Mar 4, 2011 3:38am Mar 4, 2011 3:38am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Yeah, I am conscious of a losing trade wiping out previous gains so it is something I am looking into. Intel uses the 1:1 method as well and if trading with the trend talks about moving stops to BE once it hits / gets close to hitting 1:1, if you get me?

Tom's trending system seems good but personally I don't think it works too well for Forex, perhaps more so for stocks etc. That may just be me or the trades that I take. Do you employ it or have any success with it?
I'm not trading at the moment. I mentioned a few days ago that I've only recently come back to the markets after having a pretty intense 9 months in my business where one of the major shareholders wanted out and I had to buy them out. I quickly decided last year I was about to become jack of all trades and master of none so put trading to the back burner whilst I concentrated on the dayjob. It was a shame because I'd just recouped all the money I'd lost in my pre VSA trading days (about £4,000).

Now having successfully bought out the other shareholder I am back, but actually quite pleased with the gap. Looking at the charts now it seems so much clearer - sometimes when I was learning VSA last year I couldn't see the woods for the trees, and it confused me. Now, with the help of studying intensely and reading the words of wisdom from many on this thread I am a lot happier.

My biggest problem previously was eliminating emotion and I think that will be the biggest thing for me to get over. That is why I am spending the next month not even demo trading, but reading the markets at least daily and making my judgements on them (posting them here when I can) - learning where I get things wrong and becoming comfortable before starting with my live account again. I want to become proficient at one market (EURUSD) rather than just moderately OK to begin with at more than one, before moving onto other markets. It sounds similar to what you've done, which I admire.

The easiest thing in the world is to rush in, and to be honest I'm pleased with myself that I'm not thinking, "Damn it, I didn't have a trade running that would have netted 100 pips yesterday" but instead I'm happy that my chart reading was correct.

Back to your question (LOL) I do take trades in my mind real time - for example, yesterday - I would have likely taken a small trade on the no supplys around 1.3840, but set my SL to below the 1.3800 support level. Lets say for example I got in at 1.3850 (buy order above the test bar) then my SL might have been 60 pips. I work on 2% risk max at any time, and as I spread bet I could have set my £ per pip to £3.33 assuming my capital was £10,000 (£10,000 * 2% = £200 / 60 pips = £3.33 per pip).

However had the market drifted back down towards 1.3820 and showed SOS strength / tests / no supplys, I could have maybe entered at 1.3830 and then my SL would have been 40 pips, meaning £5 per pip using the same rules.

Staying in the trade longer is something I will be looking at later but I was suggesting Tom's rules as a good starting block, however if you feel they've not worked for you then you have more experience of this than I do. I do feel though with Tom's rules you perhaps need to look at longer time frames for deciding to stay in the trade. My personal opinion is had I taken that trade yesterday I would have taken 1/2 off once we reached the ATR for the day, and left the other half at B/E.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,879
  • Mar 4, 2011 3:42am Mar 4, 2011 3:42am
Quoting willkohsg
Hi guys,
anyone looking at GBPUSD?
massive move.. how do we interpret this with VSA?
thanks in advance for comments..
(I know I'm going against what I said in my post above about focussing on one pair but I couldn't resist commenting lol)

With weakness in the background and a widespread down on low volume you should be looking for shorts. There wasn't buying in this bar.

I'd be looking for no demands and upthrusts around 1.6250 or 1.6270 to sell. We are below the POC.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6b 1h 4th mar.jpg Size: 209 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,880
  • Mar 4, 2011 4:20am Mar 4, 2011 4:20am
Mal wrote
"lol.....I thought as much .. deleted the candles all together. who needs to see price anyway ...macd rocks and will help me lose money faster than anything "

I know you don't really care how other people trade and this is not going to rock your world and frazzle your brain, but take a look over at woodiescciclub.com
The true hardcore members DON'T have price on their charts. One indicator and nothing else !

Where's your website....MalsVeryStrangeAnalysisClub.com
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