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vsa with Malcolm

  • #14,801
  • Mar 3, 2011 4:01pm Mar 3, 2011 4:01pm
Quoting Beljevina
...if there was say a risk event last night in the EU or worldwide, Trichet may have fine-tuned/toned-down/negated his comments, and I still feel we could have easily gone down. 50-100 pips down isn't huge, especially to SM, and it just would delay their master bullish plan and offer another opportunity to reload - it happens all the time: we had a couple of 100 pip down days this week, and it threw many for a loop here - no one predicted it as a shakeout, and it cast huge doubt for many.
My argument is that for them to do that, they would have had to push down through some serious support which would have cost them too much money. To shakeout the weak holders would have required some serious selling to push through the support which I think wouldn't have been economically viable for the smart money.

That, combined with the fact that supply was drying up (not completely, but reducing) makes me believe that even if Trichet had fine-tuned/toned-down/negated his comments as you mention, the market would have just moved sideways as opposed to down through support. In my opinion because of the reasons above nothing short of an interest rate reduction would have broken through that support, and based on the SM moves over the last few weeks, I'm cynically suggesting that they knew that wasn't even on the cards.

I'm very much in the SM knows things we don't camp - not quite area 51 conspiracy theory stuff but I believe they do their homework well
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,802
  • Edited 5:01pm Mar 3, 2011 4:49pm | Edited 5:01pm
Quoting Steve Gill
I'm very much in the SM knows things we don't camp - not quite area 51 conspiracy theory stuff but I believe they do their homework well
I like to think of them as an extension of the Illuminati camp.

Now, I wonder what kind of action we'll get pre-NFP - it's usually of the paint-drying variety, but every so often surprises. We're left with an ultra bullish daily candle (damn it's sexy) - I'm not sure if Asia will be able to breach 1.4 (30 pips is too often their range, which is just shy of 1.4) - good chance they will, since the yen crosses have done as good if not better, with EURJPY being the kingpin, although 115.6 will need a lot of lift-off power ... 1.3882/1.39 seems a ways off but let's see ... perhaps it'll be the 1.3925 DPP.

On a side note, it's rather entertaining watching the EURUSD thread guys short this thing ...
  • #14,803
  • Mar 3, 2011 4:52pm Mar 3, 2011 4:52pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Lol ... no you are late. I called 1.425 back at 1,3500 and got shit for it in the eu thread .. getting closer.

I cannot wait . i will roast cloggie and his arrogant arse.
HEHEHEHE I think you already roasted him Yeah, I have been watching the drama of you two unfold and it appears one of you knows whats up and the other is full of himself. Where has he been lately anyways? LOL
  • #14,804
  • Mar 3, 2011 4:53pm Mar 3, 2011 4:53pm
Quoting Beljevina
I like to think of them as an extension of the Illuminati camp.

Now, I wonder what kind of action we'll get pre-NFP - it's usually of the paint-drying variety, but every so often surprises. We're left with an ultra bullish daily candle (damn it's sexy) - I'm not sure if Asia will be able to breach 1.4 (30 pips is too often their range, which is just shy of 1.4) - good chance they will, since the yen crosses have done as good if not better, with EURJPY being the kingpin, although 115.6 will need a lot of lift-off power ... 1.3882/1.39 seems a...
I must admit I ventured into that thread to see the reaction after the upmove today. Interesting point of view to say the least!
  • #14,805
  • Mar 3, 2011 4:55pm Mar 3, 2011 4:55pm
Quoting Beljevina
On a side note, it's rather entertaining watching the EURUSD thread guys short this thing ...
I will bring popcorn and you coca cola
  • #14,806
  • Mar 3, 2011 4:56pm Mar 3, 2011 4:56pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
I must admit I ventured into that thread to see the reaction after the upmove today. Interesting point of view to say the least!
There is only one regular in that thread who knows what he is doing. The rest are short unless the price rallies then they all long just at the right moment.lol
  • #14,807
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:00pm Mar 3, 2011 5:00pm
Quoting PipChick
There is only one regular in that thread who knows what he is doing. The rest are short unless the price rallies then they all long just at the right moment.lol
Kinda got that impression! I'm not really one to belittle other traders, but some people mentioned scalping some shorts just after that wide spread up. Seemed mad to me. Each to their own I guess.
  • #14,808
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:02pm Mar 3, 2011 5:02pm
Quoting PipChick
There is only one regular in that thread who knows what he is doing. The rest are short unless the price rallies then they all long just at the right moment.lol
This what amazes me. There are bunch of people who give absolutely false signals and then out of the sky when price rallies they are all in green. And they all have picked the top or bottom. EU thread is a joke.
  • #14,809
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:05pm Mar 3, 2011 5:05pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
This what amazes me. There are bunch of people who give absolutely false signals and then out of the sky when price rallies they are all in green. And they all have picked the top or bottom. EU thread is a joke.
Its annoying. But actually for the most part there are a few who I admire but it seems the others ruin it all.
  • #14,810
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:13pm Mar 3, 2011 5:13pm
Quoting Beljevina
Now, I wonder what kind of action we'll get pre-NFP - it's usually of the paint-drying variety, but every so often surprises. We're left with an ultra bullish daily candle (damn it's sexy) - I'm not sure if Asia will be able to breach 1.4 (30 pips is too often their range, which is just shy of 1.4) - good chance they will, since the yen crosses have done as good if not better, with EURJPY being the kingpin, although 115.6 will need a lot of lift-off power ... 1.3882/1.39 seems a ways off but let's see ...
If I was a gambling man, I'd suggest based on the obvious and understandable supply in the wide spread up bar, that we could see a shakeout to wipe out the breakout traders. The SM is obviously bullish, and there is no real good reason why they should distribute at anything less than 1.42, so a nice shakeout could be in order - hit the stops of the breakout traders, and encourages the herd to go short, so on the way back up the buying when we hit their stop losses helps our up move

There's certainly a bit of room on the downside now, a good 150 pips in my opinion, for them to play with

If it goes up, then the SM is even more bullish than Malcolm

More seriously, in a month's time there is a big chance the herd will be buying as the interest rate is likely increased, thinking it's a good time to invest in the euro. The SM are more than likely going to sell into this, then shake them out, and continue the up move.

Quoting Beljevina
On a side note, it's rather entertaining watching the EURUSD thread guys short this thing ...
I did browse over there this afternoon and noticed that - I do feel sorry for the newbies (as I was one once) but there are some seriously arrogant and over confident individuals over there! Not to worry, I notice that Malcolm pops over to their camp every now and again to spread the love
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,811
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:18pm Mar 3, 2011 5:18pm
Quoting Steve Gill
I did browse over there this afternoon and noticed that - I do feel sorry for the newbies (as I was one once) but there are some seriously arrogant and over confident individuals over there!
When I first joined this site I had the Eddie and Cable threads in my subscribed threads section but I soon got rid of them (Eddie i particular) because it simply wasn't helping my trading one bit. This thread on the other hand...

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ckWrFNiurf...old%2BStar.jpg
  • #14,812
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:18pm Mar 3, 2011 5:18pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
I must admit I ventured into that thread to see the reaction after the upmove today. Interesting point of view to say the least!
I like your blog Liam, I'm a massive fan of logging your thoughts and trades. I'm keeping a wordpress blog as well which only Malcolm has seen so far but hopefully once I've tidied it up a little I'll open it up to the public.

Out of interest why did you close your trade at 1.3915?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,813
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:23pm Mar 3, 2011 5:23pm
hello everyone, i was just invited by balut to drop by the thread.
I admire Malcomb14's trading abilities with VSA and just wanted to lurk around every now and then. I don't know anything about VSA so I can't contribute, my brain is to fried from learning trading that if you don't mind I'll continue to lurk and maybe I'll pick up something. now at least you know who i am and that i'm not some run and tell lurker.

best regards
G
  • #14,814
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:26pm Mar 3, 2011 5:26pm
what you saw there was testing of that daily support level 1.3920 area

However as one guy said eu is going down this week so be careful lol .. kididng of course , after test bar last friday on 12 hour it was pretty clear what eu was going to do this week

Quoting Nverstop
Haven't finished reading MTM yet but figured I saw this and thought I saw some of the principles in play so took the trade on demo.

Background:

1HR EU chart shows upwards movement with steepening demand lines indicating strength and upward momentum and bulls are in control.

5 min chart shows a upwards push through previous resistance on an almost climatic surge in volume. The reaction to the new highs downward shows decreasing volume in each downbar and in particular the 3rd and 4th downbar are notable I think because on the 4th there is...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,815
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:26pm Mar 3, 2011 5:26pm
Quoting Steve Gill
I like your blog Liam, I'm a massive fan of logging your thoughts and trades. I'm keeping a wordpress blog as well which only Malcolm has seen so far but hopefully once I've tidied it up a little I'll open it up to the public.

Out of interest why did you close your trade at 1.3915?
Im still follwoing your blog too liam, i just havent figured out how to post comments lol
  • #14,816
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:27pm Mar 3, 2011 5:27pm
Quoting Steve Gill
If I was a gambling man, I'd suggest based on the obvious and understandable supply in the wide spread up bar, that we could see a shakeout to wipe out the breakout traders. ...

There's certainly a bit of room on the downside now, a good 150 pips in my opinion, for them to play with
Hunh, 150 pips down? Wouldn't that get them to about the negative 50 pip point of my previous 50-100 pip shakeout on theoretical bad Trichet news?

That would also allow any diehard trapped shorts an out, and charity ... this is not!

Anything less than 1.39253 will be a gift, and 1.389 I will view as a peace offering! (Through to the close-of-Friday session that is, barring any NFP shocker!)
  • #14,817
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:27pm Mar 3, 2011 5:27pm
Hey pip...

Hows things ? good to see you drop by .

Quoting PipChick
HEHEHEHE I think you already roasted him Yeah, I have been watching the drama of you two unfold and it appears one of you knows whats up and the other is full of himself. Where has he been lately anyways? LOL
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,818
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:29pm Mar 3, 2011 5:29pm
Predictions for tomorrow:

Attached my new favourite chart - 8 hour starting at 06.00. First bar is Europe and UK morning session, 2nd bar is the US plus afternoon Europe and UK, 3rd bar is Asia.

The upmove today had some selling in it but it appears that selling has been mostly absorbed in the US session. With NFP tomorrow it's an eventful day and we might see the market sideways for most of the day until the news. I would have liked a drift down on low volume to test the my UVA at 1.3880 before going long but I think that's most unlikely now.

It should be obvious, but notice the volume profile today compared to around 1.3820 - it's half the volume. Any shakeout tomorrow in the news is going to have a hard time breaching that support IMHO. As I mentioned in my post above any up move as a result of the news is unlikely to have massive selling in it (its always going to have some) unless it's closing 1.42 - but that's over 200 pips away, a tall order.

Because its fun I'm going to predict a shakeout tomorrow, no further south than 1.3820. I wouldn't trade based on that (always trade the charts as you see them at the time) but it seems a likely scenario based on the information in front of me.

Thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6e 8h 3rd mar.jpg Size: 190 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,819
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:29pm Mar 3, 2011 5:29pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
This what amazes me. There are bunch of people who give absolutely false signals and then out of the sky when price rallies they are all in green. And they all have picked the top or bottom. EU thread is a joke.
I'm always reminded of George Orwell's famous doublespeak in 1984.

" Winston sank his arms to his sides and slowly refilled his lungs with air. His mind slid away into the labyrinthine world of doublethink. To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them…"
  • #14,820
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:31pm Mar 3, 2011 5:31pm
Thursday afternoon shout out to the...

HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADERS !!!!

LOL

I have to stop using this vsa shit
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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