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vsa with Malcolm

  • #14,781
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:21am Mar 3, 2011 11:21am
Quoting Steve Gill
My only problem with your entry is that it (and prior price action in the previous few hours) wasn't at a big enough support level. The price had what I'd describe as 'ranging potential'. I'd have waited until the price showed strength and testing closer to 1.3800 through 1.3820, or taken the trade where you did but widened your stop (and reduced your lot size accordingly) until it was below this support level.

Stops should really be below support when going long.
Completely agree with you about indetifying strong support for picking good long trade set-ups locations. Yesterday I identified for me personally I wanted to see a SO or test into 3840-3830, when the day closed and today's daily pivot point marked at 3830 that was even more confirmation of this level as being a point of interest. Also the POC for 2/28/2011 and 3/1/2011 are at 3830 and 3821 respectively. Besides all of the above (sorry for rambling) 3830 was also the 38.2 fib retrace of yesterday's high to low...

While I agree that 3800 level since it is a 00 level is phsycologically a level to watch there was enough confluence of points at 3830 for me to make it low enough and strong enough for my trigger zone.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,782
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:26am Mar 3, 2011 11:26am
Quoting Beljevina
Great analysis. And hopefully you don't mind my throwing some different perspective on this.

The setup prior to the 95 pip M5 bar is there. BUT, I think we see that set up fairly frequently, and, it doesn't usually return 95 pips or the ~130 we saw. Sometimes, it goes the wrong way. I mention that because, had Trichet not said anything about a rate hike, or threw cold water on it, we could well have been looking at 50-100 pips down.

My only point is that the news here launched us up, & took Buy Stops up with it. Sure there was an inkling...
I agree and it seems to me that perhaps we were seeing a lead from the big boys that they were expecting Trichet to do what he did and thus the signs of strength followed by a brief shake out to start the move up followed by well you know...

That is my hesitation as well is that even though the signs appear to be there if anything in the speech or news is the least bit out of the line the big boys can turn their bias on a dime and take us all out.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,783
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:27am Mar 3, 2011 11:27am
Quoting Beljevina
I mention that because, had Trichet not said anything about a rate hike, or threw cold water on it, we could well have been looking at 50-100 pips down.
Forgive me for debating this, as I suspect you're more experienced than I am - but I'm not 100% convinced about that. I think the last few weeks have shown a setup - supply has been drying up. The SM have made their medium term intentions clear, so IMHO news is only used as an excuse - either to mark up like today, or if they need to remove supply to shakeout the weak holders.

I think a shakeout was unlikely as the supply had been drying up, and we were above some reasonable support that a shakeout would have had to breach - not good business for the SM.

Had the price been below resistance a shakeout would have been cheaper for the SM.

As we know the SM doesn't work on fundamentals - they just take advantage of news. And with forex, news is always just around the corner - happy days

Interested in your comments.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,784
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:34am Mar 3, 2011 11:34am
Quoting pres78
Completely agree with you about indetifying strong support for picking good long trade set-ups locations....
I agree with that, however I tend to place greater importance on cumulative volume over the last few days, the reason being as we've seen this week setups can emerge over a few days. My charts were showing me the cumulative POC as sitting almost bang on 1.3800 which is why I chose that figure
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,785
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:41am Mar 3, 2011 11:41am
[quote=pet;4444497]Gold update:

I position closed with target TP2+ at 1422, only 1 position left SL now at entry, buyers are expected to turn up at this 1422 levels but my bias is that they may let the bears have their day cos the deeper the retrace the better the momemtus rally back above, anyway will see how it goes..

More pips to all as always



GOLD update:

TP3 met and taken , all positions closed for the day, very good trade.
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  • #14,786
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:41am Mar 3, 2011 11:41am
Quoting Steve Gill
Just realised I wrote resistance when I meant support! Sorry LOL
Ha, thankfully I know enough to realise what you meant!
  • #14,787
  • Mar 3, 2011 12:23pm Mar 3, 2011 12:23pm
Quoting polomine
Thanks for your reply. Hope everybody received Trichet's telegram before he press the launch button.
Nice Work Polomine. Good Job. Thanks For Interesting Chart.
  • #14,788
  • Mar 3, 2011 12:26pm Mar 3, 2011 12:26pm
[quote=pet;4445377]
Quoting pet
Gold update:

I position closed with target TP2+ at 1422, only 1 position left SL now at entry, buyers are expected to turn up at this 1422 levels but my bias is that they may let the bears have their day cos the deeper the retrace the better the momemtus rally back above, anyway will see how it goes..

More pips to all as always



GOLD update:

TP3 met and taken , all positions closed for the day, very good trade.
Very good work indeed. Thanks for sharing your chart and trade. Best Wishes for Continued Success.
  • #14,789
  • Mar 3, 2011 12:28pm Mar 3, 2011 12:28pm
Quoting Steve Gill
I think the last few weeks have shown a setup - supply has been drying up. The SM have made their medium term intentions clear, so IMHO news is only used as an excuse - either to mark up like today, or if they need to remove supply to shakeout the weak holders.

I think a shakeout was unlikely as the supply had been drying up, and we were above some reasonable support that a shakeout would have had to breach - not good business for the SM.

Had the price been below resistance a shakeout would have been cheaper for the SM.

As we know the SM...
Debate is good. I failed to mention that in the back of my mind I was thinking of the 8:30 DPP bounce as a extremely strong M5/short-term precision entry position for longs, which then took off like we rarely see in fx. I'm big on trying to have precision entries, as part of my quest to read PA.

And I certainly do agree on SM intent over the past many weeks and the strength we're reading into that. But at the same time, if there was say a risk event last night in the EU or worldwide, Trichet may have fine-tuned/toned-down/negated his comments, and I still feel we could have easily gone down. 50-100 pips down isn't huge, especially to SM, and it just would delay their master bullish plan and offer another opportunity to reload - it happens all the time: we had a couple of 100 pip down days this week, and it threw many for a loop here - no one predicted it as a shakeout, and it cast huge doubt for many. But that's the nature of human emotion and trading. I scripted buying at 1.375, and allowed myself to get stopped out at BE, when a 5 pip SL would have served me quite well. Clearly, emotion & stubbornness got me on that one.

Had we gone down that presumed 50-100 pips again, it could have been viewed as a shakeout and strength still not questioned. I guess I'm looking at the 1070 pips up of the last 7 weeks, and viewing the ~200 pips to 1.41 or ~300 to 1.426 double-top potential as real barriers. Throw in unavoidable fundamentals like soaring PIIGS debt rates (again), the real-ground negative effect of a strong euro, and I'm more frequently wondering when the negativity spotlight will return, esp. since we're about 80% of the way along the 1.29-1.42 leg.

I've got a euro-web debt graphic I post too often (did so in the euro thread a few days ago), which has Greece, UK, Spain, Portugal debt shown - and all to some extent played out - but the biggest debtor on the chart - Italy at 1.4billion - hasn't yet played out in any way - it could be the doozey. And, a lot can change in the next month before the ECB meets - Libya or some other entity could blow up, sure oil will skyrocket and increase inflation worries, but throw in some debt/default/renegotiation issues and as Trichet said "there is no guarantee" they will raise - should that happen in concert with something else, it could be the start of a euro decline, or at least a see-saw ride I still hope to profit from.
  • #14,790
  • Mar 3, 2011 12:32pm Mar 3, 2011 12:32pm
Lol ... no you are late. I called 1.425 back at 1,3500 and got shit for it in the eu thread .. getting closer.

I cannot wait . i will roast cloggie and his arrogant arse.

Quoting KinsaleForex
1.50 easy.

Been fucking about for too long trying to get 1.40, it'll blow through that and keep going.

You heard it here first.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,791
  • Mar 3, 2011 12:34pm Mar 3, 2011 12:34pm
they blew it thru the daily resistance 1,3920 .. pretty damn bullish. If that is broken and then tested on a no demand then myabe we head down

but for now with last 2 weeks drying up supply and blowing thru 2 major resistance levels in a day I am expecting 1.4 / 1.41 this week

Quoting Beljevina
Debate is good. I failed to mention that in the back of my mind I was thinking of the 8:30 DPP bounce as a extremely strong M5/short-term precision entry position for longs, which then took off like we rarely see in fx. I'm big on trying to have precision entries, as part of my quest to read PA.

And I certainly do agree on SM intent over the past many weeks and the strength we're reading into that. But at the same time, if there was say a risk event last night in the EU or worldwide, Trichet may have fine-tuned/toned-down/negated his comments,...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,792
  • Edited 2:09pm Mar 3, 2011 12:36pm | Edited 2:09pm
Luckily this is in a demo account, but in interest of accountability I can't say why I sold EU in the teeth of Ultra-Bullishness. I wasn't thinking about any sort of signals or trigger setups and was only gambling as if the biggest and most liquid market in the world and perhaps existence was a slot machine. This sort of behavior almost always results in losing money or blowing up yet another demo account. It may be correctable by adopting a trading plan rule for my speculation transaction open check list to always double check if I am actually living in the present rather than my delusional fantasy world.
********************************************************
Edit: 14:07 gmt-6, Hope is the enemy of a speculator. If this were a real trade, I'd be hoping for it to go down so as to get out at break even. That hope would have prevented me from closing and reversing for only a small lose presaging a big gain. The pic is below.
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  • #14,793
  • Mar 3, 2011 12:49pm Mar 3, 2011 12:49pm
oh

All you did there is set the test level for the next 120 pip move up thanks

Quoting rbumbalough
Luckily this is in a demo account, but in interest of accountability I can't say why I sold EU in the teeth of Ultra-Bullishness. I wasn't thinking about any sort of signals or trigger setups and was only gambling as if the biggest and most liquid market in the world and perhaps existence was a slot machine. This sort of behavior almost always results in losing money or blowing up yet another demo account. It may be correctable by adopting a trading plan rule for my speculation transaction open check list to always double check if I am actually...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,794
  • Mar 3, 2011 12:56pm Mar 3, 2011 12:56pm
Lucky no one followed that fellow that was all over us on Sunday.

Euro going down this week

Once again another epic fail when vsa showed the way
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,795
  • Mar 3, 2011 1:07pm Mar 3, 2011 1:07pm
EU for Friday... I would like to see a move up in Asia with a LO or pre LO SO or test into the 3960-3950 (1hr trigger) zone for a long NFP booted trade into a daily high at 4110-4090.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,796
  • Mar 3, 2011 1:54pm Mar 3, 2011 1:54pm
Me thinks that tomorrow is a quiet day like always before NFP. So half of the day nothing to do. I may amuse myself reading EU thread where they are posting 2-4 pip trades and wondering why market is so dead
  • #14,797
  • Mar 3, 2011 2:20pm Mar 3, 2011 2:20pm
Quoting malcolmb14
oh

All you did there is set the test level for the next 120 pip move up thanks
You're welcome. It was as if I was watching myself mindlessly clicking the sell button right at the bottom of the test bar. I'm so glad it is only a sim-demo transaction. But its good to be reminded of what a margin call looks like and what it feels like to swill Red Bulls while crapping my pants hoping an inexorable grind higher pulls back. Ha, LOL. Hope is not a business plan, but I'd bet $100 that many thousands of small retail traders, like me, are indeed crapping their pants right now. Bending down to pick up nickels in front of steam rollers is an addiction afflicting most people including me. Oh, yeah. Another item for the entry open transaction check list.

"Are you sure you're not bending over to pick up a nickel in front of a steam roller?"

Thanks for your help everybody, you folks are going to be amongst the best traders on this planet.
  • #14,798
  • Mar 3, 2011 2:30pm Mar 3, 2011 2:30pm
I wonder if there's a VSA setup on UJ. It's bounced as expected down at a 80.9 Jan 2 UTL and has retest it a number of times with (enough) buyers stopping the fall - at least 5 incidences of decent buying that have seem to have held the current bottom TL, over the last 6 days.

This current area 82.4 TL is one from late December. A retest of ~81.9 and more buying and a launch over 82.4/5 could get us to 83 and 83.5. Forexlive reported 3:1 longs over shorts in UJ some days ago, but it's been strictly a sell the rallies plan for weeks now. We all know where the dollar is (supposed to be) headed, but it's never a straight line and a bounce is due IMO.

I will be looking at the NFP reaction and any bottoming/buying here for a potential entry at the area mentioned. Gotta keep in mind we've just had a 95 pip bounce, no small feat for UJ. Problem is, NFP has a tendency to produce wicks - in this case 81.7 or 81.2 would not be surprising, and then watching for reaction.
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  • #14,799
  • Mar 3, 2011 2:37pm Mar 3, 2011 2:37pm
Haven't finished reading MTM yet but figured I saw this and thought I saw some of the principles in play so took the trade on demo.

Background:

1HR EU chart shows upwards movement with steepening demand lines indicating strength and upward momentum and bulls are in control.

5 min chart shows a upwards push through previous resistance on an almost climatic surge in volume. The reaction to the new highs downward shows decreasing volume in each downbar and in particular the 3rd and 4th downbar are notable I think because on the 4th there is equivalent volume compared to the 3rd so equivalent "effort" but on the 4th bar there is substantial reduction in the "result" or price spread. Overall as price moves lower so does activity or participation. So same amount of gas but alot less progress. My buy came after this 4th downbar marked by the red lines and after the next upbar that closed on its high which also had almost double the price spread of the previous downbar.

I'm not yet comfortable with the jargon yet so I didn't include it if it was applicable.

Good luck with everyone's trades.
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  • #14,800
  • Mar 3, 2011 3:16pm Mar 3, 2011 3:16pm
[quote=rbumbalough;4445470]
Quoting pet

Very good work indeed. Thanks for sharing your chart and trade. Best Wishes for Continued Success.

thanks for your good wishes, same goes to you too in all your endeavours.

cheers
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