Hi LJ, pleased to see that you traded AU, i had my order in @1.01475 " but it missed by two pippets. would you mind telling me your entry and stop? do you tend to have a fixed stop or put it just above/below the nearest hourly level. i have been putting my entry orders 1 pip above/below the highs/lows of SR but i have missed 4 good trades in the last 3 days so think i need to revise this. Things are going well though.
My path to financial freedom
- #3,342
- Mar 2, 2011 11:10am Mar 2, 2011 11:10am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
Hi LJ, pleased to see that you traded AU, i had my order in @1.01475 " but it missed by two pippets. would you mind telling me your entry and stop? do you tend to have a fixed stop or put it just above/below the nearest hourly level. i have been putting my entry orders 1 pip above/below the highs/lows of SR but i have missed 4 good trades in the last 3 days so think i need to revise this. Things are going well though.
Glad things are going well
- #3,346
- Mar 3, 2011 7:07am Mar 3, 2011 7:07am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
Hi LJ, hope that you won't mind I post a chart here. This is a setup that I found today, GBPUSD bullish bar closed above the resistance, and price is coming back to test the support. I have a limit order on 1.6260 and SL was set at the low of the bullish bar. Thank you.
- #3,351
- Mar 3, 2011 3:07pm Mar 3, 2011 3:07pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,891 Posts
so whats a quick explanation of how ep will effect the dollar and yen pairs. I know the dollar will become stronger if index weakens but how? why? will that affect the yen pairs?
Actually LJ i'm going to set myself a task and run some pairs in a simulator next to some correlated markets (with the charts side by side) to see if i can notice how they affect each other better. what do you think of the following choices and do you have any suggestions. Cheers.
EJ - YM
UJ - EP
UC - CL
AU - GOLD
I know the dollar will become stronger if index weakens but how.
U dont know that but thats what u believe cause u dont know how. ( and thats a big difference)
ok now coming back to the question.Ask yourself following ?'s
How could dollar become strong, stronger than the rest (EUR,GBP)?
What could make EP go down?
or making it more easier, what could make people buy USD and what could make them sell stocks.
What could effect Yen's vs USD, EUR and GBP?
I will answer these questions later (with my incomplete knowledge) but u will have to think for urself now and let us know of anything u can imagine and we will continue.
Coming to ur second question,
Running simulators wont going to help unless u knew what were fundamentals were like Risk Aversion-Appetite, news announcements etc.
To give an example AU and Gold will look nice in period between May-2009 to May-2010. Than all of a sudden u will see they will be inverse-correlated I.E moving in opposite direction. The reason was Risk aversion jumping in and people running towards safe heavens such as GOLD, USD, JPY, CHF and selling AUD, EUR, GBP etc.
So gold was rising but AU was falling due to money going into USD so that would confuse someone looking at just history charts and not knowing the market dynamics in certain scenarios outside MT4.
But again watching the market in real time and being inline with realtime fundies could do wonders for,..... u simply saying forward testing instead of back testing.
and that's just my humble opinion and i could be way off.
.
- #3,352
- Mar 4, 2011 5:34am Mar 4, 2011 5:34am
hi LJ,
do you usually close a long-term(for me) trade that will take about a week or two to get to its target(if it ever gets there!) b/c of NFP release, especially when you have about 100pips of headroom.
just want to know how a senior like you would have managed it so that we learn more. the pair is UJ
this is the first time of confronting a situation like this with a buffer than appears temptingly adequate to me.
were it to be any smaller, i would have closed out without a second thought.
thanks in advance
do you usually close a long-term(for me) trade that will take about a week or two to get to its target(if it ever gets there!) b/c of NFP release, especially when you have about 100pips of headroom.
just want to know how a senior like you would have managed it so that we learn more. the pair is UJ
this is the first time of confronting a situation like this with a buffer than appears temptingly adequate to me.
were it to be any smaller, i would have closed out without a second thought.
thanks in advance
- #3,354
- Mar 4, 2011 12:38pm Mar 4, 2011 12:38pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,891 Posts
Hi Nasir, thanks for the pointers, i know next to nothing about this stuff but will attempt to answer best i know how -
No problem Maj i just want you to start thinking for ur own benefit.
I know LJ must be worried of where i am taking this discussion cause he would like every one to master basic S/R techniques first. So i have to let u know that get good at technicals first before jumping into fundy stuff.
Reasons that could point towards dollar, yen and swissy strength -
Rising interest rates (or talk of)
Money flows into the strong currencies when there is risk aversion
Strong figures regarding economy being released (unemployment figures etc)
Reasons for weakness in stocks -
World events that effect risk appetite negatively
Low business growth
Low consumer confidence
Other factors i know of that could contribute -
- Intervention by BOJ can affect the yen
- Stronger economic condition in asia mean strength for the yen and...
yeah Risk-Aversion is one reason.JPY and CHF pretty much obvious choice and i dont have to worry much about their own fundies much cause they more dependent on Eurozone and USA so when i am covering EUZ and USA them i dont have to worry much about there own economies at times of risk aversion. On the other side USD have a lotsa stuff to deal with like Unemployment, Housing, QE2, Inflation, OIL and Gold Being priced in terms of it etc,.. so it could be a 4th favorite in risk aversion scen's.
Now my reasons and possible scen's are,
In next couple of months a premature end to QE2 cause of inflation and better Eco-growth, thus higher bonds yields and FED's hinting about rate hike's at the same time middle crisis could have got solved and also any rate hike from ECB would be pretty much priced in (already is) will make USD stronger on all fronts thus leaving people scratching thier heads when EU falls after the rate hike from ECB.*
But that's a very far scenario in terms of intraday trading at the moment biggest fundamental driver is INFLATION. A race between GBP, EUR and USD that who will raise the rates first and by the looks of the things ECB is winning with BoE second and FED's not even in the frame and your charts r showing u the outcome. The reason behind current USD strength against GBP, YEN, AU (Chinese rate hikes)and NU (Earth quake, hint of a rate cut) is money flowing into USD treasuries (another lucrative investment in risk aversion times).*
Yeah right stocks would fall on bad or less than expected numbers and political events around the world causing risk aversion etc. As far as Interventions concern BOJ and SNB wont even think of it when every one is buying their currency's and also both have learnt their lesson pretty much in last couple years that stand alone intervention wont help much.*
so under normal condition correlations aud may follow gold but it times of risk aversion the correlation breaks down and the same goes for oil and cad?
Yeah right about AUD-GOLD but not really with OIL-CAD cause these are not safe heavens so it depends on what is causing Risk-Aversion. I if bad economical situation in USA are causing it than oil and cad both could fall cause bad eco will mean less oil consumption thus less import. On other hand an event like Middle-East will obviously cause higher oil prices which is good for CAD but not for a slowly recovering economy in USA.
I see what you mean about having to know the reasons for whats going on and that looking at a historical data will only confuse an untrained eye. Be great to hear some more thoughts!
In the end all u need to find out is that what is driving fundamental force behind the markets, sometimes PIIGS, sometimes its QE and other times its Inflation so its all a revolving cycle and u have to revolve with it. I will say again first concentrate on basic PA-SR and than go to next level.
and that's all my own opinion and i could be wrong mosta times.
.
* Ceteris paribus
- #3,356
- Mar 4, 2011 5:41pm Mar 4, 2011 5:41pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
hi LJ,
do you usually close a long-term(for me) trade that will take about a week or two to get to its target(if it ever gets there!) b/c of NFP release, especially when you have about 100pips of headroom.
just want to know how a senior like you would have managed it so that we learn more. the pair is UJ
this is the first time of confronting a situation like this with a buffer than appears temptingly adequate to me.
were it to be any smaller, i would have closed out without a second thought.
thanks in advance
- #3,357
- Mar 4, 2011 5:47pm Mar 4, 2011 5:47pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
Thanks Nasir... lots there, need a while to digest that!
S+R and PA is going pretty well so far.
How about this for a nice monday starter. Target is green area (daily TL).
Did you notice where price reversed ...despite the strong move up because of the ECB statement...the power of confluence
Yes on the face of it it looks a good technical setup to me...will have to watch on Monday and see what happens.
- #3,358
- Mar 4, 2011 5:50pm Mar 4, 2011 5:50pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
Price seems to like these confluenced areas...even NFP spike couldnt get past it
