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vsa with Malcolm

  • #14,661
  • Edited 10:02am Mar 2, 2011 9:43am | Edited 10:02am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Still long, trichet this week still and nfp. They are toying with traders now taking out stops and accounts, 3880 goes and 1.4 should be tested.
Nice trade & glad you stayed in ... unlike ... me, who "couldn't stomach" a small drawdown, and here we are 130 pips later ...

EDIT: added chart. It's a 1 min, but this type of entry process against a TL and monitoring volume, in a slow grind up-type market works time and time again. Had I not been siesta-ing, I'd be in, even at that last TL touch (there's now a 3rd TL touch since I'd annotated plus our ADR).

EDIT2: UTL has been breached to the downside. Typically, I'd be watching for a move down to the next blue TL Line/channel or yesterday's high, for a possible bounce up. Not talking many pips at this point, given we are 11am NY.
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  • #14,662
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:43am Mar 2, 2011 9:43am
Hi, just joined FF -
have been reading this thread (parts of it...)for some weeks now...
Im trading forex for a year now, but did not use VSA so far.... I have much to lean and I want to start by saying THANKS to all of you and especilly Malcolm that started it !!

looking forward to lean the ART of VSA and hope you will fogive some noobs questions every now and then


P.S - also thanks too ALL members thats post what thay see before the trade starts ( yes, Im also an expert on trading last weeks charts... but it doesn't get me anywhere... )
  • #14,663
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:48am Mar 2, 2011 9:48am
Quoting pres78
Ah OK... still struggle with the right termanolgy sometimes but I seem to get myself into the right general area anyway with regards to what I am seeing on the charts. Yes I do take into account spread for SL and TP's I just usually call out the actual number that the SL or TP was based on for simplicity sake.

So would you look at the first bar as being stopping vol, followed by what is close to being a SO?

When would you consider two bars as being a 2 bar reversal or SO?
The first bar would be a down bar the wider the better into fresh new ground closing in the bottom 1/3. The 2nd bar would be an up bar with a spread at least as wide as the first, makes a higher low and closing as close to the high as possible. It is better that the second bar is on higher volume than the 1st but not essential. It is better if the combined volume should not be low compared to the previous 2 '2 bar combination'.

There are many flavours of 2 bar reversal flying around some are rubbish others are good. You should make your own mind up as to which you will act on and which you wont.
  • #14,664
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:50am Mar 2, 2011 9:50am
Quoting Intel
The first bar would be a down bar the wider the better into fresh new ground closing in the bottom 1/3. The 2nd bar would be an up bar with a spread at least as wide as the first, makes a higher low and closing as close to the high as possible. It is better that the second bar is on higher volume than the 1st but not essential. It is better if the combined volume should not be low compared to the previous 2 '2 bar combination'.

There are many flavours of 2 bar reversal flying around some are rubbish others are good. You should make your own mind...
That's great thanks for the explanation.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,665
  • Mar 2, 2011 10:07am Mar 2, 2011 10:07am
Said I was done but based on where we sit and what appears to be supply coming in on the last few 30min and 1hr bars all closing well off their highs I am looking for some confirmation of weakness (or perhaps London close profit taking) to get in short for a ride down to 3830-3810 area.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,666
  • Mar 2, 2011 10:13am Mar 2, 2011 10:13am
Quoting Sonofsin5
S&P taking out some shorts. Euro gunning for 3900 stops. I think today took some traders by surprise.
Loony has dipped again, looking like it may be setting up for another long. Presume you're out of the position from yesterday?
  • #14,667
  • Mar 2, 2011 10:20am Mar 2, 2011 10:20am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Loony has dipped again, looking like it may be setting up for another long. Presume you're out of the position from yesterday?
Yes I exited last night before bed. I'm no that interested in it now as the Eur has finally taken out resistance. There was about 35 pips to the high on that ucad trade, I hope you took some.
  • #14,668
  • Mar 2, 2011 10:35am Mar 2, 2011 10:35am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Yes I exited last night before bed. I'm no that interested in it now as the Eur has finally taken out resistance. There was about 35 pips to the high on that ucad trade, I hope you took some.
Nah I didn't get in on any of it. I don't really trade 5min so I was just watching your entry and your analysis and taking note basically!
  • #14,669
  • Mar 2, 2011 10:48am Mar 2, 2011 10:48am
Will try a EU short if low of 5 min ND is broken at 3868...

Below PAL on 5min, SL would be at daily high around 3888, TP would be set just above 38.2 fib retrace at 3838 for slightly better than 1:1. Once 1:1 level is hit I will move to BE to make the trade no risk.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,670
  • Mar 2, 2011 10:55am Mar 2, 2011 10:55am
Quoting kave
yeah back to previous supply level of yesterday high volume area, i m hanging on to my long & SL now @ 3800, signs of NS would be nice now..
I am still on hold targeting 3920... SL move to 3850
  • #14,671
  • Mar 2, 2011 11:02am Mar 2, 2011 11:02am
Quoting pres78
Will try a EU short if low of 5 min ND is broken at 3868...

Below PAL on 5min, SL would be at daily high around 3888, TP would be set just above 38.2 fib retrace at 3838 for slightly better than 1:1. Once 1:1 level is hit I will move to BE to make the trade no risk.
Now in the short (broke the rules a bit on entry as it took three bars after the ND to get my entry)...

Another ND just printed on the EU 5 min chart.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,672
  • Mar 2, 2011 11:37am Mar 2, 2011 11:37am
Quoting foxybunny
EUR/USD M5, not my favorite timeframe, but big moves need to see more in detail.

EUR/USD ranging between 1.3786 and 1.3854, very Balance area and critical.
Ben Bernake spoke and move it down by around 60pips.

Will price break today or just hanging on balance until this Fri NFP!

Attachment

EUR/USD M5 price pushing up supply through 1.3854 , after a brief visit to the downside past 1.3786 this early Asian.
A bit of concern on the Long as it went down to 1.3743 in Asian.
It needed to go down that time in order to re-fuel its rocket fuel.

Looking for Slow Up Rocket as it is now (US session) is up around 1.3864, the "5th Box High" that is also "New 6th Box Low".
Long is looking better once more.

Cautious now is on Shorts.

Too tired for charts now, just refer to charts in previous posts for now.
  • #14,673
  • Mar 2, 2011 11:39am Mar 2, 2011 11:39am
Quoting pres78
Now in the short (broke the rules a bit on entry as it took three bars after the ND to get my entry)...

Another ND just printed on the EU 5 min chart.
Another 5 min ND bar and then an upbar on increasing vol... out at BE terrible PA and now done for the day. Probably go down now that I am out.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,674
  • Mar 2, 2011 11:44am Mar 2, 2011 11:44am
I would like to see a move down and either a shake out or low volume test in the 3830-3840 area followed by a move up into 3970-3980 high for Thursday.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,675
  • Mar 2, 2011 12:33pm Mar 2, 2011 12:33pm
How everything looks much easer on the end of the day and move..lol

That means more screen time to be able to read it as a book
Work smart not hard
  • #14,676
  • Mar 2, 2011 12:36pm Mar 2, 2011 12:36pm
Quoting pete148
I dont know bud, 1h just printed a NS. And 10min setting up nicely for a long, only problem is we have strong ressistance were alot of retail traders will be selling.

But dont let me change your thinking
You were wright ...

I am real noob as soon as i see ultra high volume wide bars i automticly start to think about reversals...And make pattern to looks like that

idiot

And i just should keep on that trigger level "tip"..there would be more than 3 nice entry spots to the long
Work smart not hard
  • #14,677
  • Mar 2, 2011 12:42pm Mar 2, 2011 12:42pm
Quoting sony
I am real noob as soon as i see ultra high volume wide bars i automticly start to think about reversals...And make pattern to looks like that
Don't worry about it, we've all been there. The important thing is to learn from mistakes, and make sure emotion is removed (e.g. no revenge trades!).
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,678
  • Mar 2, 2011 1:30pm Mar 2, 2011 1:30pm
Quoting Steve Gill
Don't worry about it, we've all been there. The important thing is to learn from mistakes, and make sure emotion is removed (e.g. no revenge trades!).
Yeah true..thanks
Work smart not hard
  • #14,679
  • Edited Mar 3, 2011 3:19am Mar 2, 2011 3:22pm | Edited Mar 3, 2011 3:19am
Quoting f451
I'm in too.

Three months ago I had zero forex trading experience (yep, never made a trade, never seen a chart or a technical analysis indicator), and now I'm semi regularly taking profitable trades (mostly when I get in front of the PC before the move actually happens, most I miss), in large part due to the charts and comments Malcolm has posted.

Here's a very quick summary of the steps I took to wrap my head
around VSA:
- read Master the Markets - realised volume and it's result on price were the key to understanding what was going on...
I have been re-reading through this thread as despite being on Forex factory for 2 years now, I've been away from the forum for a large part of last year due to day job commitments (major shareholder sold out) and I'm now spending the next month or so playing catch up and making sure I'm comfortable with my VSA knowledge before jumping into trades. There is no rush - better to keep emotions out.

Anyway the point is I thought this post above from the early days was excellent and worth resurrecting for some of the newer members.

Edit: just noticed its not quoting the whole text. Click on the right arrow next to "f451" to read it.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,680
  • Mar 2, 2011 3:55pm Mar 2, 2011 3:55pm
hey guys, just my thoughs in the Es.

As dr G pointed out a few days back there was less progress on each of those downbars, which on that volume is a bullish sign.

then we have had two up days, second of the two looks there was a little supply on it.

But now look....there is a WRB down on heavy volume which indicates supply however there has been no result from this effort, and the next bar is up (although no convincingly like the 31st Jan).

My final thoughts (jerry style) is that all the signs are here that this is just a retrace, however the todays bar is less than convincing which suggests we could see a move down (even a spring of somesort).

As i say all signs suggest were still bullish, but its if they can capitalize on it!
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