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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #3,801
  • Feb 27, 2011 5:28pm Feb 27, 2011 5:28pm
Nice support at 0.9761-3. Two x Fibo, target for H1 h&s,
H4 stochastic oversold from few days, never ending divergences.
I'm gonna take some pips today , ciao
  • #3,802
  • Feb 27, 2011 6:15pm Feb 27, 2011 6:15pm
MAKO: nice TA.

Tonight with STO o/s D & 4H may scalp some long to 9860 prev supp.

Like VENGE noted: CAD news coming. Must still have a little blood in my alcohol VENGE, was that E/U 1.3750 instead of U/CAD?
  • #3,803
  • Feb 27, 2011 6:24pm Feb 27, 2011 6:24pm
4H & H dropping: so while I am in front of computer selling @ mkt ( looking to V's 9750 TP).

Eye to retrace 9840/50 overnight.

Oxymoron: gov't worker; civil servant.
  • #3,804
  • Feb 27, 2011 8:23pm Feb 27, 2011 8:23pm
Quoting kingich
This pair is giving me trouble now.

It's also going south, constantly.

From the pivot point of view, you can see that he totally missed last two pivot points. I mean, it's not something usual, as every pair almost all the time at least touches it's daily pivot, not to mention spend some time around it.

.
king: giving a few of us trouble.

However; 2 gems in your missive

1) going South CONSTANTLY. Been saying that since Dec/09.

2) it's not something usual. Used to be a time when you could long E/US long G/US & sell US/CH (or vice-versa). Used to be a time when OZ buy; Kiwi buy & Loonie sell (or vice-versa) made some pips. 3 for 1's. These are not usual times. Too much fundamental stuff making big boys nervous.

Watch your charts carefully & do not assume - I know that the U/CAD will reverse BUT I don't know when.

Main thing that I know is that I cannot pick bottoms or tops; so I go with the trend.

Keep yer stick on the ice!
  • #3,805
  • Feb 27, 2011 11:40pm Feb 27, 2011 11:40pm
Quoting Scarecru
MAKO: nice TA.

Tonight with STO o/s D & 4H may scalp some long to 9860 prev supp.

Like VENGE noted: CAD news coming. Must still have a little blood in my alcohol VENGE, was that E/U 1.3750 instead of U/CAD?
haha! My bad - USD/CAD 0.9750! I think I might have been the one with a little too much blood in my alcool!
  • #3,806
  • Feb 28, 2011 3:45am Feb 28, 2011 3:45am
Still bad things happen with greenback. I figured out something goes wrong and closed my order on BE. Now waiting for short on EUR/USD to 1.3800 (H1 MACD divergences, stoch overbought, H1 boolinger bound broken as deep-fired pastry ribbons)- more sure about this than CAD reversal.
Good luck guys.
  • #3,807
  • Feb 28, 2011 9:01am Feb 28, 2011 9:01am
My take on it. If you go long on USD CAD you will be 30% richer over the next few months.
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  • #3,808
  • Feb 28, 2011 9:21am Feb 28, 2011 9:21am
Quoting Euroscum
My take on it. If you go long on USD CAD you will be 30% richer over the next few months.
Imho, oil is driving this pair, with the uncertainty in the ME, the dollar is capped on the north side. Oil supplies are high in the mid US probably stabilizing the bottom side of the pair.

Daily and 240 minute charts have it at the bottom of a declining wedge in conjunction with some of the support levels coming out of the crash, bouncing from here would seem natural, back into 98. possible 99. area, upper wedge region. However large support trend line in 95./94. range seem target in my view, given the global oil view.

Any good news coming out of the ME, should correct the pair.

fwiw..............
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  • #3,809
  • Feb 28, 2011 9:50am Feb 28, 2011 9:50am
Quoting auxesis
Imho, oil is driving this pair, with the uncertainty in the ME, the dollar is capped on the north side. Oil supplies are high in the mid US probably stabilizing the bottom side of the pair.

Daily and 240 minute charts have it at the bottom of a declining wedge in conjunction with some of the support levels coming out of the crash, bouncing from here would seem natural, back into 98. possible 99. area, upper wedge region. However large support trend line in 95./94. range seem target in my view, given the global oil view.

Any good news coming...

It is starting to look more feable as time goes on so I do not think we will see that old low in your first gif. IMO if there is a sell off on stocks the CAD will go with it.
  • #3,810
  • Feb 28, 2011 9:56am Feb 28, 2011 9:56am
support @ .96993 looks a little promising...for some longs..but oil is just driving this cad stronger and stronger..watching that level critically.
  • #3,811
  • Feb 28, 2011 10:05am Feb 28, 2011 10:05am
Quoting Pipwanderer
support @ .96993 looks a little promising...for some longs..but oil is just driving this cad stronger and stronger..watching that level critically.

It was not only oil, before now it was general commods, same for the AUD. Everything is a little bit toppy now. The AUD, CAD, gold, silver, SPX, USDX etc etc

I am sure some of you can feel that is it just around the corner.
  • #3,812
  • Feb 28, 2011 10:42am Feb 28, 2011 10:42am
The 3 month downtrend is still in play. My preference has been to sell. 0.9995. That was my overhead resistance and I shorted there. I had hoped for some protection around there, but a short squeeze managed to pierce the upper edge of the downtrend channel, and one of my SLs was hit. If the pair breaks above 0.9987 and holds (Feb 10 and 11 highs) then I’d be concerned that perhaps the break of the downtrend is going to lead to a significant reversal higher, so I’d be looking to exit my shorts. That never happened. In terms of my downside targets, they were/are the key level of 0.9815-20 which is the major historical low from May 21 2008. Below this we have a clear horizon until 0.9712 levels – a low not seen since Feb 2008 – and then the all time low 0.9058 (from Nov 2007).
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,813
  • Feb 28, 2011 4:20pm Feb 28, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting Vengeance
As for any of you looking to short, oil day is next Friday so we have alot of the oil patch sellers popping out to sell USds and I know from my own book I have alot of orders to sell from .9890 to 0.9920 so unless oil/commds/equities really come off next week, shorting in that zone is likely to be a relatively good risk/reward bet.

On the downside, 0.9830/20 right down to 0.9800 has a whack load of buyers (most of my buyers sitting down there) and if we do see a break of 0.9800, channel support at 0.9780 should hold, at least for the near-term....
Well these guys slowed the road down, albeit not by much and with most orders having been filled, not seeing much from my clients (and the other guys here) till mid 0.96s and under. Good chance to see a quick trip there and as such, I'll remain short just a wee bit longer! Have completely taken off my stop on USD/CAD and got short a little bit more on retest of .9780 overnight!

Also, looks like I got out of my EUR/USD long a bit too early...God I hate the Euro! Closed my swissy last night at .9267 (why that rate? felt like it!).
  • #3,814
  • Mar 1, 2011 8:34am Mar 1, 2011 8:34am
ok here we go to 99.25
  • #3,815
  • Mar 1, 2011 7:09pm Mar 1, 2011 7:09pm
Quoting Duce
[color=#1f497d][size=3][font=Calibri]The 3 month downtrend is still in play. My preference has been to sell. 0.9995. That was my overhead resistance and I shorted there. I had hoped for some protection around there, but a short squeeze managed to pierce the upper edge of the downtrend channel, and one of my SLs was hit. If the pair breaks above 0.9987 and holds (Feb 10 and 11 highs) then I’d be concerned that perhaps the break of the downtrend is going to lead to a significant reversal higher, so I’d be looking to exit my shorts. That never happened....
Yo DUCE: I have two words for you-

"SELL RALLIES"

I see 9600 ( as mentioned a few weeks ago).
New poutine challenge (9600 before Leafs win Stanley cup)
Nice reasoning in your post.
  • #3,816
  • Mar 1, 2011 7:43pm Mar 1, 2011 7:43pm
Mthly chart has STO o/s & RSI curling up. Retrace 9950 Resistance.
Wly:STO o/s but RSI down.

No rate hike -so big boys sold CAD today.

USD still in disfavour.

Commodities may be the driver for awhile.

My take is haven't reached bottom yet.
  • #3,817
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:32am Mar 2, 2011 8:32am
Quoting Scarecru
Yo DUCE: I have two words for you-

"SELL RALLIES"

I see 9600 ( as mentioned a few weeks ago).
New poutine challenge (9600 before Leafs win Stanley cup)
Nice reasoning in your post.
Scarecru, that's what I've been doing. To be honest with you, I've been a perma USD bull most of my life, but I've been beaten up pretty badly in business (exporting) and now I'm just resigned to the fact that the CAD is gonna stay strong along with commodities. What are you gonna do?

As far as your prognostication...that’s not really going out on a limb.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,818
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:41am Mar 2, 2011 8:41am
the USD is just rubbish, until the FED stop printing or raise interest rates this will go on.
  • #3,819
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:57am Mar 2, 2011 8:57am
The USD is rubbish because the feds want it to be rubbish. Line up all the world's countries and tell me the US is not top 3 (China, US, Germany). I live in Canada and see what our economy looks like...it's not worth 1.03 USD....but it is in business and it is because of oil. I've posted it several times (although I didn't always listen to my own advice), the USD is down because they want it to be down.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,820
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:21am Mar 2, 2011 9:21am
Wow, glad to see this thread still kicking. And of course its the same question, and the same answer, NO.
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